摘要:探究辽宁省春玉米各生育期内的气候资源变化特征及干旱风险，能够为宜农政策制定提供理论依据，从而增强玉米种植气候适应能力。基于辽宁省19个气象站点逐日气象数据及玉米生育期数据，利用度日指标、显著性检验、干燥度指数及地理信息技术分析1970-2018年5个年代际玉米全育期生长度日（GDD）、高温度日（HDD）、降水量的时空变异特征。结果显示：（1）春玉米GDD整体呈上升趋势，不同年代际间GDD在苗期、成熟期及全育期存在显著差异；从2000年开始，高值区向朝阳、鞍山等地集中。（2）2000-2018年春玉米全育期HDD增长趋势明显，尤其在抽穗期；空间上以朝阳为中心的辽西北地区高值区变化范围明显。（3）春玉米降水量在拔节期、抽穗期及成熟期年际变化大，波动性强；以中部地区变化最为明显，且1990-1999年降水量分布变化较大。（4）辽宁省春玉米全育期干燥度指数在不同年代际存在差异，从干燥度指数与GDD、HDD及降水量的聚合分析看，HDD的升高和降水量的减少引发干旱的风险性较高。（5）虽辽宁省春玉米全育期的热量资源增加，但降水量呈减少趋势，未来极端高温和农业干旱的风险将有所提升，因此，下一步应针对农业气候变化及其对农业影响等开展分区研究。



Abstract:The exploration of the characteristics of climate resources change and drought risk in each growth period of spring maize in Liaoning Province is beneficial to provide the theoretical basis for the formulation of suitable agriculture policy and enhance the climate adaptation of maize planting. Based on the daily meteorological data of 19 meteorological stations in Liaoning Province and the data of maize growth period, this study analyzes the temporal and spatial variation of total growth period (GDD), high temperature day (HDD) and precipitation for maize of 5 decades from 1970 to 2018 by day index, significance test, aridity index and geographic information technology, so as to explore the drought risk of spring maize in Liaoning Province. The results show that: (1) The overall trend of GDD for spring maize is increasing, but there are significant differences in the period of seedling, maturity and whole breeding period. High values of GDD are mainly distributed in Chaoyang, Anshan and other regions. (2) HDD shows an obvious increasing trend in the whole growth period for spring maize from 2000 to 2018, especially in the heading period. (3) The precipitation varies greatly in the period of jointing, heading and maturity, especially in the central region. and its distribution changes a lot from 1990 to 1999. (4)Aridity index of spring maize in Liaoning Province is different at different periods, the risk of drought caused by the increase of HDD and the decrease of precipitation is higher from the polymerization analysis of drying index and GDD、HDD and precipitation. (5)With the heat resources of spring maize in Liaoning Province increasing and the precipitation decreasing, the risk of extreme high temperature and agricultural drought will be increased in the future. Therefore, the future work should be focused on regional study on agricultural climate change and its impact on agriculture.





PDF全文下载地址:

https://www.ecologica.cn/stxb/article/pdf/stxb202002110227