摘要:粤港澳大湾区是国际化程度、资源整合能力、经济价值和效益都极高的区域，必须高度重视其环境风险问题，避免区域生态系统和人民群众健康受到威胁。人类活动密集区的突发环境事件风险源和受体的涉及面广、来源复杂，利用传统统计数据和技术手段开展的环境风险评价越来越体现出其时效性弱、精准性差的缺点。尝试引入手机信令数据及其模拟分析的人口数据，并将其嵌入到网格化环境风险分析法中，对粤港澳大湾区的江门市大气环境风险进行评估，刻画区域环境风险空间分布特征，精准识别区域环境风险类型。研究方法是在遵循《行政区域突发环境事件风险评估推荐方法》的前提下，通过对比分析统计数据与手机信令数据得到的江门市人口空间分布、大气环境风险易损性及环境风险值，结果表明虽然两者的总体趋势是一致的，但利用手机信令数据得到的环境风险等级结果更精细化、分辨率更高、时效性更强、数据处理更高效。研究表明，基于手机信令数据开展分析显著提高了环境风险评估的风险受体人口分析精度，可为预测及管理区域环境风险提供准确参考，实现突发环境事件应急处置区域具体化、最小化，从而减小应急处理成本。



Abstract:The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is an area with a high degree of internationalization, resource integration, economic value and benefits. More attention should be paid to its environmental risks and prevent threats to regional ecosystems and the health of the local people. The risk sources and receptors of emergently environmental events in human-intensive areas are extensive and complex, which makes the environmental risk assessment using traditionally statistical data and technical methods increasingly be subject to the criticism for its lack of timeliness and accuracy. Mobile phone signaling data has many advantages, including large sample volume, low collection cost, and strong following performance. Thus, this study attempts to introduce mobile phone signaling data and its simulated analysis of population data, and embed it into a grid-based environmental risk analysis method to assess the atmospheric environmental risk of Jiangmen City in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, describe the spatial distribution of regionally environmental risks features, and accurately identify the type of regionally environmental risk. The grid-based environmental risk analysis is a process of dividing the assessment area into grids, then quantifying the environmental risk field strength and environmental risk receptor vulnerability of each grid and calculating the grid environmental risk value according to the risk field theory and the environmental risk receptor vulnerability theory. Jiangmen City is located in the key node of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, which is an important gateway between the Pearl River Delta region and western Guangdong. It is also a well-known "overseas capital" in China. The research on Jiangmen City is typical for studying the regionally environmental risk management of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The research method is based on the premise of following the "Recommended Methods for Risk Assessment of Environmental Emergencies in Administrative Regions", a comparative analysis of Jiangmen's population spatial distribution, atmospheric environmental risk vulnerability, and environmental risk values, obtained from statistical data and mobile phone signaling data, the results show that the overall trends are consistent. However, the results of environmental risk levels obtained by using mobile phone signaling data are more refined, with higher resolution, stronger timeliness, and more efficient data processing. The research has shown that the analysis based on mobile phone signaling data significantly improved the accuracy of the risk recipient population analysis of environmental risk assessment, which could provide an accurate reference for predicting and managing regional environmental risks, and realize the specific and minimization of emergency response areas for environmental emergencies, thereby reducing emergency treatment costs.





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