摘要:中尼廊道地区作为南亚通道建设的关键环节，具有生态环境脆弱且对生态资源依赖性强的基本特征，中尼廊道建设占用生态空间，将增加生态系统对农牧业生产活动的承载压力；因此，开展中尼廊道生态承载力研究对青藏高原生态保护和南亚通道建设具有重要的实践价值和指导意义。基于生态供给与消耗平衡关系，通过计算农牧业生产对生态系统净初级生产力的消耗，评估中尼廊道地区的生态承载力，结果表明：（1）中尼廊道地区生态承载力处于富富有余状态，2015年有7个县域生态承载力处于临界超载或平衡有余状态；整体上生态系统尚有较大的生态空间来支撑中尼廊道建设，但建设可能给局部县域带来超载风险。（2）中尼廊道地区生态系统供给量处于稳定波动状态，畜牧业生态消耗在生态消耗中占主导地位（占比超80%）；得益于2005年起实施的草畜平衡政策，中尼廊道地区及其24个县域生态消耗量呈下降趋势，农牧业生产活动对生态系统造成的压力降低，生态承载状态向优发展；但地处粮食主产区、口岸区、城市化辐射区的7个县域，在本地及周边地区日益增长的对农牧业产品的生活需求驱动下生态消耗量处于增加态势。（3）若以实现生物多样性公约所倡导的50%生态资源得到保护为生态保护目标，目前中尼廊道农牧业生产模式产生的生态消耗将超出其可利用供给，区域可持续发展需要关注如何通过中尼廊道建设带动当地产业结构调整以缓解农牧业生产对生态系统的压力。



Abstract:As a crucial link in the construction of South-Asia channel, the China-Nepal corridor has characteristics of fragile ecological environment and strong dependence on ecological resources. The construction of the China-Nepal corridor would occupy ecological space, which increases the carrying pressure of ecosystem on agricultural and animal husbandry production. Therefore, study of ecological carrying capacity in the China-Nepal corridor has important practical value and guiding significance for the ecological protection of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the construction of South-Asia channel. Based on the balance between ecological supply and consumption, this paper evaluates the ecological carrying capacity of the China-Nepal corridor through calculating Net Primary Production (NPP) consumed by agricultural and animal husbandry production. The results show that (1) the ecological carrying capacity of the China-Nepal corridor is in a state of abundant and 7 counties are in critical overload or balanced surplus state in 2015. On the whole, there is still large ecological space to support the construction of the China-Nepal corridor, but the construction may bring overload risk to some counties. (2) The supply of ecosystem in the China-Nepal corridor is in a stable fluctuation state, and the ecological consumption of animal husbandry plays a leading role in the ecological consumption (accounting for more than 80%). Due to the implementation of the grass-livestock balance policy since 2005, the ecological consumption intensity of the China-Nepal corridor and its 24 counties have declined dramatically, which means that the ecological pressure of agricultural and animal husbandry production is reduced, and the ecological carrying state is developing to a better level. However, the ecological consumption is increasing driven by the growing demand for agricultural and animal husbandry products in local and surrounding areas in seven counties located in the main grain-producing areas, port areas and urbanization radiation areas. (3) If the goal of ecological protection is to protect 50% of the ecological resources advocated by the Convention on Biological Diversity, the ecological consumption of agricultural and animal husbandry production mode in the corridor would exceed its available supply. The regional sustainable development needs to pay attention to how to promote the adjustment of local industrial structure through the construction of the China-Nepal corridor in order to alleviate the pressure of agricultural and animal husbandry production on the ecosystem.





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