摘要:生物多样性和生态系统服务情景模拟是指对未来生物多样性和生态系统服务变化轨迹的定量估计，二者相互关联并为长期、稳定的保护和恢复生态系统提供了重要科学依据。梳理生物多样性以及生态系统服务预测情景的核心观点，讨论基于生物多样性和生态系统服务情景模拟的保护决策支持途径，以期服务于我国生物多样性与生态系统服务预测研究的发展和深化。研究凝练结果如下：物种分布模型需要进行更规范的评价以明晰其对具体对象的适用性，生态系统预测模型亟待在关系结构的基础上嵌入更多的生态系统过程和社会经济过程，生态系统服务评估模型有必要强化对生物多样性、生态系统服务、人类福祉级联特征的刻画；全球气候变化驱动了未来区域生物多样性的大幅改变；土地利用则是陆地生态系统服务预测中的核心驱动变量。生态区划与区域尺度情景模拟、景观尺度下的生态安全格局构建、基于社会生态网络的社区适应三点重要展望方向将对基于情景模拟的我国生态系统保护决策提供重要的理论和实践支持。



Abstract:Biodiversity and ecosystem service scenario simulations refer to the quantitative estimation of future biodiversity and ecosystem service change trajectory, which provides an important scientific basis for long-term and stable protection and restoration of ecosystems. This study compared the related prediction models of biodiversity, sorted out the core viewpoints of biodiversity and ecosystem service prediction scenarios, and discussed the approaches of ecosystem management decision support based on scenario simulation aiming to serve the biodiversity and ecosystem service prediction research in China. The results are as follows. The species distribution model needs more specifications to clear its applicability, ecosystem prediction model on the basis of the structural relationship requires join more specific ecological and socioeconomic processes, and ecosystem services assessment model needs to strengthen on describing the cascade characteristics of biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being. Great regional biodiversity change will be driven by global climate change depended on the large scale scenarios and land use is the core driving variable in the prediction of terrestrial ecosystem services. Three important research directions were identified as ecological regionalization and regional scale scenario simulation, ecological security pattern construction in landscape scale, and community adaptation based on social ecological network. We believe these findings will provide important theoretical and practical support for China's ecosystem conservation decision-making based on the scenario simulations.





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