摘要:评估生态保护红线斑块受人类干扰的潜在退化风险，可为差异化、精细化的红线监管方案拟定提供科学依据。以安徽省域为例，基于InVEST模型，定量分析了2017年农田、城镇、矿区、交通干线等风险源对红线内各生境受体的干扰退化风险度。结论如下：全省和红线内受人类干扰退化风险由高到低的生境类型依次是农田、草地、湿地和林地。生态保护红线内人类干扰退化风险较全省平均水平更低。全省整体干扰退化风险指数呈现"北高南低"的格局。高风险区集中在合肥城区、芜马城区、淮蚌城区周边，两淮矿区及周边，低风险区则主要分布在皖西和皖南山区、巢湖湖区、沿江沿淮湖区等。干扰退化风险较高的红线斑块主要为合肥北部淠河——滁河干渠和董大水库水源地红线，铜陵市郊区棋盘山红线，长江干流芜马段自然岸线红线，淮河干流淮蚌段水体及岸线红线，阜阳城区颍河及周边湿地红线，皇藏峪西部宿淮交界处山体红线，宿州市砀山县城区东南部红线等，建议重点监管，防控人类干扰导致的生态风险。



Abstract:The assessment of the potential degradation risk driven by human activities in ecological red-line regions can provide a scientific basis for the development of differentiated and refined red-line supervision schemes. Taking Anhui Province as an example, based on the InVEST model, the degradation risk of habitat in the red-line region affected by risk sources, such as cropland, construction land, mining area, and traffic trunk was quantitatively analyzed for 2017. The following conclusions were made: the order of habitat degradation risk by human disturbance from high to low was cropland, grassland, wetland, and forest in the whole province and red-line region. The degradation risk of human disturbance in the red-line region was lower than the average level of the whole province. The degradation risk index of the whole province followed the pattern "north high and south low". The high risk areas were concentrated in the suburbs of Hefei, Wuhu-Maanshan, and Huainan-Bengbu cities and the Huainan-Huaibei mining area and its surrounding area, whereas the low risk areas were mainly distributed in the western and southern mountainous areas in Anhui Province, Chaohu Lake, and the lakes along the Yangtze and Huaihe rivers. The red-line patches with high degradation risk were mainly distributed in main canal of the Pihe-Chuhe River and the water source of the Dongda reservoir in the north of Hefei, Qipan Mountain area in Jiao district of Tongling City, the natural shoreline along the Yangtze River in Wuhu-Maanshan cities, the waterbody and natural shoreline along the Huaihe River in Huainan-Bengbu Cities, the Yinghe River and the peripheral wetland in urban areas of Fuyang City and mountain area situated at the juncture of Suzhou and Huaibei cities in the western area of Huangcangyu, and the southeast urban areas in Dangshan County. These key areas are recommended for supervision to prevent ecological risks driven by human activities.





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