摘要:中国的城镇化进入到以大都市群作为主要载体的发展阶段，由于粗放式经济增长方式没有发生根本改变，城镇化进程的生态环境问题日益凸显。基于1995年、2005年和2015年3期土地利用/土地覆被变化数据测度了长江中游城市群生态系统服务价值时空分布特征，并且综合运用双变量空间自相关模型、普通最小二乘法以及空间回归模型对长江中游城市群生态系统服务价值和城镇化水平之间的空间关系进行测度。研究结果表明：（1）研究期间长江中游城市群生态系统服务价值有显著降低，而城镇化水平有显著的增加，二者呈现相反的空间分布特征；（2）长江中游城市群生态系统服务价值和城镇化水平之间存在显著的空间依赖性；（3）空间回归模型被证明更适合测度生态系统服务价值和城镇化之间的相互作用关系，城镇化的发展会导致生态系统服务价值的降低，二者之间存在U型曲线关系。生态系统服务价值不仅受到自身格网单元要素的影响，而且受到邻近格网单元或者是更远格网单元要素的影响。未来的土地利用规划以及生态系统保护规划需要充分考虑二者之间的空间依赖效应和空间溢出效应，实行跨区域的联合治理。



Abstract:Urbanization in China has entered a stage that urban agglomerations are the major urbanization mode. As the extensive economic growth mode did not change fundamentally, the ecological problems during the urbanization process have become increasingly prominent. Based on the land use/land cover change in 1995, 2005 and 2015, we measured the spatiotemporal distribution features of the ecosystem services value (ESV) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomerations (MRYRUA). In addition, we investigated the spatial relationship between ecosystem services value and urbanization by using the bivariate Moran's I methods, the ordinary least squares method, and the spatial regression models. The results showed that: (1) the ESV during the study period in the MRYRUA decreased significantly, while the urbanization level increased significantly, exhibiting opposite spatial distribution features; (2) there was significant spatial dependence between average ESV and urbanization level in the MRYRUA; (3) the spatial regression model was proved to be more suitable for measuring the spatial interaction between ESV and urbanization level. The development of urbanization would lead to the decline of ESV, and there was a U-shaped curve relationship between them. The ESV is influenced not only by the individual elements, but also by neighboring elements or even further elements. The spatial dependence effect and spatial spillover effect between ESV and urbanization level should be fully considered to implement cross-regional joint governance in the future land use planning and ecosystem protection planning.





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