摘要:如何刻画自然资源消费在区域间的流转机制及其对生态的影响，是测度区域可持续发展的难点。采用改进后的三维生态足迹模型并引入存量流量利用比和资本流量占用率，对2003-2018年新疆区域三维生态足迹进行核算，并分别测度新疆各地州市自然资本利用的程度，聚焦南北疆地区自然资本利用的差异性，利用偏最小二乘法（PLS）找出影响生态足迹变化的动因，最后结合基尼系数及差异系数量化南北疆经济差异程度，从自然和经济视角探究南北疆可持续发展态势与差异。结果表明：①2003-2018年新疆人均生态足迹持续增长，增长幅度为119.94%，人均生态承载力基本保持在1.7 hm²左右，流量资本占用强度不断增加，生态赤字问题愈发严重。②研究期内，南北疆地区生态足迹的增长幅度和速度存在明显空间差异，呈现"北高快，南低慢"的态势。各地州市生态赤字情况呈现不同程度的增长趋势，高值区为北疆的克拉玛依市及天山北坡经济带。③第一产业增加值对生态足迹正向驱动作用最为显著，第三产业增加值对生态足迹起到逆向驱动作用。④2003-2018年间，南北疆地区基尼系数维持在0.4-0.5之间，处于中警警度水平，南北疆区域经济差异系数变化波动不大，北疆区域经济差异系数明显高于南疆区域。



Abstract:How to depict the circulation mechanism of natural resource consumption among regions and its impact on ecology is a difficult point to measure the sustainable development of regions. This paper adopts the improved three-dimensional ecological footprint model and introduces the utilization ratio of stock-flow and the occupancy rate of capital flow. Then the model is used to calculate the three-dimensional ecological footprint of the Xinjiang region from 2003 to 2018, and measure the degree of natural capital utilization in various states and cities in Xinjiang. Focusing on the differences in the use of natural capital in the south and the north of Xinjiang, partial least squares (PLS) is applied to find out the causes that affect the changes of ecological footprint. At last, Gini coefficient and difference coefficient are employed to quantify the degree of economic difference between the south and the north of Xinjiang, and the sustainable development trend and the difference between the south and the north of Xinjiang are explored from the natural and economic perspectives. The results show that: ① Xinjiang's per capita ecological footprint continued to grow from 2003 to 2018, with a growth rate of 119.94%. The ecological carrying capacity per capita is basically maintained at about 1.7 hm². The occupation intensity of flow capital increased continuously, and the ecological deficit problem became more and more serious. ② During the research period, there were obvious spatial differences in the growth range and speed of ecological footprint in the southern and northern Xinjiang, showing a trend of "high in the north and low in the south". The ecological deficits of various states and cities show different degrees of growth. The high-value areas are Karamay City in northern Xinjiang and the economic belt on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain. ③ The added value of the primary industry has the most significantly positive driving effect on the ecological footprint, while the added value of the tertiary industry has the reverse driving effect on the ecological footprint. ④ From 2003 to 2018, the Gini coefficient in the southern and northern parts of the Xinjiang remained between 0.4 and 0.5, which was at the level of medium warning degree. The regional economic difference coefficient in the southern and northern parts of the Xinjiang did not change much, and the regional economic difference coefficient in the northern part of the Xinjiang was significantly higher than that in the southern part of the Xinjiang.





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