摘要:马可波罗盘羊是帕米尔高原的代表性物种，开展生境适宜性评价对于该物种的保护与管理具有重要意义。综合考虑植被、地形等影响马可波罗盘羊生境选择的关键因子，以及道路和牧场等人为干扰因子，借助ArcGIS，构建生境适宜性指数模型，在不同尺度上评价分析马可波罗盘羊的生境适宜性及其季节变化特征。结果表明：15836 km²保护区内马可波罗盘羊夏季潜在适宜生境面积为2127.19 km²，冬季为1915.70 km²。保护区西北部面积3767.73 km²的马可波罗盘羊实际分布区内，夏季潜在适宜生境面积为1095.48 km²，冬季为1072.82 km²，马可波罗盘羊适宜生境集中分布于保护区内该物种实际分布区。受人为干扰，保护区内马可波罗盘羊夏季和冬季实际适宜生境丧失率分别为18.43%和17.78%，实际分布区内适宜生境丧失率分别为33.65%和29.73%，表明实际分布区马可波罗盘羊适宜生境受人类活动影响较大，应予以重点保护。总体而言，影响马可波罗盘羊生境适宜性的关键因素是国道314和放牧。基于上述研究结果，作者提出了4点关于马可波罗盘羊生境保护，以及保护区管理与规划的建议与思考。



Abstract:Marco Polo sheep is a representative species in Pamir Plateau. Habitat suitability assessment is of great significance for the protection and management of the species. In this study, three groups of parameters including biological, non-biological factors, and the human interference were considered comprehensively. With help of ArcGIS, the habitat suitability index model was used to compare and analyze the potential and valid habitat areas and habitat loss rates at different scales, as well as the changes of habitat suitability in different seasons. The results showed that the potential suitable habitat areas within the reserve was 2127.19 km² in summer and 1915.70 km² in winter, respectively. The potential suitable habitat areas within the actual distribution area in the northwest area of the reserve was 1095.48 km² in summer and 1072.82 km² in winter. Therefore, the suitable habitats for the Marco Polo sheep were mainly distributed within the actual distribution area. With the human interference, the suitable habitat loss rates within the reserve were 18.43% in summer and 17.78% in winter, 33.65% in summer and 29.73% in winter within the actual distribution area. The results showed that human activities have a greater impact on the actual distribution area, so we should focus on protecting it. In conclusion, the key impact factors were the National Road G314 and grazing activities. Four suggestions and ideas are proposed for the habitat protection of the Marco Polo sheep and the management and planning of the reserve.





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