摘要:国土空间开发适宜性评价是国土空间规划编制的基础和前提。面向可持续城市生态系统管理目标，基于生态保护红线和永久基本农田的"底线"思维，以资源环境禀赋为基础，构建了本底约束-综合限制-承载力评价-多空间适宜评价的资源环境承载力和国土空间开发适宜性评价的逻辑框架和指标体系，并以烟台为例，设置城市生态系统保护的不同情景，综合运用特尔斐法及多要素空间叠置等方法，开展了城市资源环境承载力与国土空间开发适宜性评价的实践应用。研究结果表明：①资源环境对烟台经济社会发展的阻碍与限制总体较小，高限制区面积仅占烟台国土面积的6.09%。②烟台市不同区县之间的资源环境承载力差异较大。从西北部向东南，烟台市资源环境承载力呈现出逐渐提高的变化趋势。③面向可持续城市生态系统管理情景，烟台市各县市国土空间开发建设适宜性差异显著，适宜建设区范围为2380 km²。面向城市生态系统一般保护情景，烟台市适宜建设区面积达2610 km²，不适宜建设开发区与适宜建设开发区数量结构为1.12：1，未来国土空间开发利用潜力较大。两种情景下烟台市国土空间开发适宜性适宜建设区面积均大于现状建设用地面积，为城市未来发展提供了用地保障，同时确保了烟台市水资源安全和生态安全。研究结果可为烟台市国土空间优化以及相关地区政府部门重大决策、战略部署等提供决策信息支持和技术服务。



Abstract:The suitability evaluation of land development is the basis and premise for the preparation of territorial spatial planning. This study is to explore an evaluation method and application for resources-environment carrying capacity and land development suitability toward to sustainable urban ecosystem management. Based on the "bottom line" thinking of ecological protection red line and permanent basic farmland, this study proposed a logical framework and index system for evaluation of resources and environment carrying capacity and land development suitability with background constraint-integrated restriction-capacity evaluation-multi-space suitable evaluation. Taking Yantai as an example, this study set up different scenarios of urban ecosystem protection, and comprehensively used Delphi method and multi-element space overlay method to carry out the study of evaluation of resources and environmental carrying capacity and land development suitability. The results showed that: (1) The restriction of resource and environment to Yantai's economic and social development was weak, and the areas with high-restriction only accounted for 6.09% of land area. (2) The resources and environmental carrying capacity varied greatly among different districts and counties in Yantai, showing a gradually increasing trend from the northwest to the southeast. (3) Under the scenario of sustainable urban ecosystem management, there were significant differences in the land development suitability for urban land use. The suitable construction area was only 2380 km². Under the scenarios of traditional management of urban ecosystem, the suitable construction area of Yantai was 2610 km². The quantity structure of unsuitable construction area and suitable construction area was 1.12:1. Yantai had great potential in the development and utilization of land space. In both scenarios, the suitable construction area in Yantai City was larger than the current construction area, which provided land security for the future development and ensured the water resources security and ecological security. The results can provide decision-making information support and technical services for the optimization of land space in Yantai, as well as major decision-making and strategic deployment of government departments in relevant regions.





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