摘要:城市是化石能源消费和CO₂排放的主要区域。分析典型城市化石能源消费CO₂排放特征，明确不同城市CO₂排放动态及主要影响因素的差异，是开展城市减排行动的重要科学依据。采用IPCC推荐方法及中国的排放参数核算11个典型城市2006-2015年间化石能源消费产生的CO₂排放量。根据各城市经济发展和CO₂排放特征将之分为四类：经济高度发达城市（北京、上海、广州）、高碳排放城市（重庆、乌鲁木齐、唐山）、低排放低增长城市（哈尔滨、呼和浩特和大庆）和低排放高增长城市（贵阳、合肥），并运用对数平均迪氏指数法（Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index，即LMDI分解法）对比分析了四类城市CO₂排放量的影响因素。结果表明：（1）研究期内大部分城市CO₂排放总量有所增加，仅北京和广州呈下降趋势，工业部门CO₂排放在城市排放总量及其变化中占据主导地位；四类城市的人均CO₂排放量表现出与排放总量相似的变化趋势；CO₂排放强度整体上表现为经济高度发达城市（均值为0.88 t CO₂/万元） < 低排放低增长城市（均值为2.82 t CO₂/万元） < 低排放高增长城市（均值为3.05 t CO₂/万元） < 高碳排放城市（均值为6.62 t CO₂/万元）。（2）在城市CO₂排放的影响因素中，经济发展和人口规模均是4类城市CO₂排放增长的促进因素，但经济发展效应的累积贡献值大于人口规模效应；能源强度降低是4类城市CO₂排放最主要的抑制因素，且经济高度发达和高碳排放城市的抑制作用强于其他两类城市；对第三产业GDP年平均增速高于第二产业的6个城市来说，产业结构是CO₂排放的抑制因素；能源结构的变化仅对煤炭消费比重较低且降幅较大的北京和广州的CO₂排放是抑制作用，累积贡献值分别为-21.73Mt和-0.03Mt，而对其他城市，特别是高碳排放城市的CO₂排放具有明显的促进作用。



Abstract:Cities are the main regions of fossil energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. Analysis of characteristics of the CO₂ emissions from fossil energy consumption in typical cities, and clarification of the dynamics and critical influencing factors of the CO₂ emissions in different cities could provide important scientific basis for CO₂ mitigation action in urban areas. With the IPCC recommended methods and China-specific emission parameters, the CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion were estimated in 11 typical cities from 2006 to 2015. Based on the emission characters and economic development, the 11 cities are categorized into four groups, namely, cities with highly developed economy (including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou), cities with high carbon emission (including Chongqing, Urumqi and Tangshan), cities with low emission and low economic growth (including Harbin, Hohhot and Daqing), and the cities with low emission but high economic growth (including Guiyang and Hefei). Then the urban CO₂ emissions were decomposed by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method to compare the differences of influencing factors among the above four categories of cities. The results indicated that CO₂ emissions from most cities increased during the study period, while the CO₂ emissions of Beijing and Guangzhou showed a decreasing trend. The emissions from the industrial sector took the dominant position in both of the total emissions from the cities and their dynamics. The per capita CO₂ emissions of different cities showed a similar variation pattern to that of the total CO₂ emissions. Cities with highly developed economy had the lowest CO₂ emissions intensity (avg. 0.088t CO₂/k Yuan), and the values went gradually higher for cities with low emission and low economic growth (avg. 0.282t CO₂/k Yuan), cities with low emission but high economic growth (avg. 0.305t CO₂/k Yuan), and cities with high carbon emission (avg. 0.662t CO₂/k Yuan). For all the 4 categories of cities, both economic development and population size enlargement could lead to CO₂ emissions increment, but economic development made the major contribution while the effects of population size were relatively small. Meanwhile, the decrease of energy intensity effect acted as the main driving factor of CO₂ emissions reduction, and this reduction effect is stronger in cities with highly developed economy or with high carbon emission than those in the rest two categories of cities. The effect of industrial structure promotion restrained CO₂ emissions in 6 cities where the average annual growth rate of the tertiary industry GDP was higher than the secondary industry. The energy structure effect only inhibits the CO₂ emissions of Beijing and Guangzhou (with the accumulative contribution at -21.73Mt and -0.03Mt, respectively), where coal's proportion in fossil energy consumption was low and going down fast. While in the cities with high carbon emission, the change of energy structure has the most obvious promoting effect on the CO₂ emissions.





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