摘要:土地利用/覆被变化作为影响全球环境变化的重要因素，是人类活动最直接的反映，其驱动力分析能够很好地揭示人类活动对土地资源的影响机制。运用ArcGIS空间分析和SPSS主成分分析等方法，从整个东南诸河流域片区的尺度上，研究了包含中国台湾地区在内的1990-2015年间的土地利用时空变化特征，并探究其主要驱动机制。研究结果为：（1）全流域各土地类型面积占比为：林地 > 耕地 > 草地 > 城乡建设用地 > 水域 > 未利用土地，林地与耕地的空间分布特征均为"北聚南散，北多南少"，城乡建设用地集中分布在经济较为发达的台湾海峡两岸沿海地区以及流域大陆北部靠近长江三角洲的地区。（2）全流域土地类型的面积变化量为：城乡建设用地 > 耕地 > 草地 > 林地 > 水域 > 未利用土地。流域土地利用综合动态度为0.68%，整体用地类型转化程度先降低再增加，并以城乡建设用地和耕地为主要变化类型。流域南部各市的土地利用变化较北部剧烈，台湾地区主要土地利用变化类型为耕地和城乡建设用地。（3）大陆地区城乡建设用地变化的主要驱动力为人口数量及结构、城市化和社会经济发展，台湾地区在此基础上增加了社会工农产业结构调整因素。大陆耕地变化的主要驱动力为人口数量及结构、城市化水平和社会工农产业结构，社会工农产业结构和农业生产水平是台湾地区耕地变化的主要驱动力。本研究为东南诸河流域土地资源规划管理提供科学依据，为自然流域尺度的土地利用变化及其驱动机制研究提供可靠实例。



Abstract:Land use change, an important factor affecting global environmental change, is one of the most crucial human activities. Research on land use change is critical to reveal the mechanism of impacts of human activities on land resources. In this study, we used the ArcGIS spatial analysis function and the SPSS principal components method to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of land use in the Southeastern River Basin (including Taiwan) from 1990 to 2015 and explore the possible driving mechanisms. The main results are as follows:(1) From 1990 to 2015, the proportions of different land types throughout the basin was forest land > farmland > grassland > urban and rural construction land > water area > unused land. Forest and cultivated land largely gather on the north of the basin, while they are more scattered and less in the south. Urban and rural construction land is concentrated in the coastal areas of Taiwan province, where the economy is relatively well developed, as well as in the northern basin near the Yangtze River Delta. (2) The comprehensive dynamic degree of land use in the basin is 0.68%, and the degree of conversion of overall land use type first declined and then increased from 1990 to 2015. Most changes occurred on urban and rural construction lands and cultivated land. Land usage change in the southern region of the basin is more intense than that in the north. The main type of land use change in Taiwan province was cultivated land and urban and rural construction land. The comparison of changes in the area of land types in the basin is:urban and rural construction land > cultivated land > grassland > forest land > water area > unused land. The most significant increases in urban and rural construction comes from cultivated land. Hence, the increases in cultivated land begins with forest land and then gradually transitions to urban and rural construction land. There is a certain degree of synergy between the intensity of urban land use and cultivated land. The latter has maintained a large degree of change and dominates the changing structure of each period. The average annual dynamics of other construction land in the past 25 years was 17.30%, showing clear growth trends. (3) The main driving forces behind urban and rural construction land usage changes in mainland China are population quantity and structure, urbanization level, and level of social and economic development. On this basis, Taiwan province has increased the social industrial and agricultural industrial structure adjustment factors. Additionally, the main driving forces behind changes in cultivated land in mainland China are population size and structure, urbanization level, and social and agricultural industrial structures. In Taiwan province, the social and agricultural industrial structures and agricultural production levels are the main forces driving changes in cultivated land. In this study, we analyzed the spatial and temporal variability and driving mechanisms of land use changes in the southeastern river basins. This study provides theoretical support for the rational planning for land resources in the region, and provides baseline data support for the comprehensive management of resources and the environment at the basin-wide scale.





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