摘要:“山水林田湖草”重大生态保护与修复工程是中国对复杂生态环境治理的重要探索。鉴于目前大多数重大生态工程未系统地考虑气候变化对重大生态工程的影响问题，针对气候变化对高寒草地、北方林区以及风沙源区生态的影响，以实施了多年的三江源生态保护工程、三北防护林工程和京津风沙源治理工程为重点，分析了重大生态工程对全球气候变化的响应，解构了重大生态工程与气候的反馈关系和影响程度，指出了中国“山水林田湖草”重大生态工程实施过程中可能存在的问题，并给出了应对建议。结果表明：（1）气候变化对重大生态工程影响研究不足，尤其是涉及区域生态系统结构、功能、生物多样性与脆弱性等方面以及气候变化在工程实施效果贡献率的研究。（2）缺乏有效区分气候变化和工程实施效果的评估方法。目前能够定量识别气候变化对生态系统恢复的试验和方法比较少见，且缺乏对气候变化未来风险预估，导致制订的措施不能有效适应气候变化从而达到生态效益的最大化。所以在今后设计和实施“山水林田湖草”重大生态保护与修复工程时，要充分考虑自然规律、地理地带性差异和气候因素对生态系统的影响，并且加强建设生态综合监测和工程评价体系，根据未来不同的气候变化情景制订不同的措施，并依据气候动态预估来适当调整措施，使得生态工程能发挥出最大效益，以保证修复工程的系统性、区域性和整体性。



Abstract:The major ecological protection and restoration project mountains-rivers-forests-farmlands-lakes-grasslands is an essential exploration of the complex ecological environment governance in China. Considering that the impact of climate change on major ecological projects has not been systematically considered in most major ecological projects, this paper summarizes the responses of major ecological projects in alpine grassland, boreal forest areas, and wind sand source areas in north China to climate change, taking the "Three-River Sources Ecological Project", the "Three North Shelterbelt Development Program", and "Beijing and Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Project" in China as examples. Moreover, the feedback relationships and degrees of influence were analyzed between major ecological engineering and climate change, and problems and suggestions during the project implementation were noted. The results show that:(1) Research on the impact of climate change on major ecological engineering is insufficient and lacks concept, especially that related to the structure, function, biodiversity, and vulnerability of regional ecosystems as well as the contribution of climate change to engineering implementation. (2) Lack of effective assessment methods for distinguishing between climate change and project implementation effects on ecosystem, and present quantitative calculations of climate change on ecosystem restoration control tests and calculation methods are relatively rare. Furthermore, the lack of future risk assessments on climate change mean that measures are unable to maximize ecological benefits. Therefore, in the future design and implementation of the major ecological protection and restoration project mountains-rivers-forests-farmlands-lakes-grasslands, we must consider the influence of natural laws, geographical zone differences, and climate factors on the ecosystem, and strengthen the construction of climate change-based scientific ecological comprehensive monitoring and engineering evaluation systems. Thus, scientists can develop different measures according to different future climate change scenarios, which can be adjusted according to real-time climate monitoring, so that ecological engineering can maximize the benefits of the ecosystem and ensure systematic, regional, and integral restoration projects.





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