摘要:生态系统服务价值（ESV）分析对构建生态安全格局和实现区域可持续发展具有决定作用，为揭示西南地区ESV过去-现在-未来时空演变规律，运用ESV计算体系对西南地区2005-2015ESV动态演变进行定量分析，采用Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型预测2025年ESV格局。结果表明：（1）2005-2015年西南地区总体呈现增长的趋势，其值达到20.85亿元，主要受青海、西藏水域ESV增加所致，青海、西藏ESV增长率占绝对优势。（2）空间上呈现西北和东南部ESV高、北部ESV低的分布格局；不同类型和不同等级的ESV在空间上相互转换，低等级向高等级转化明显，其他生态景观向建设用地亏损流动减少的价值不足以抵消向水域流动增加的价值，盈利大于亏损，生态环境明显好转。（3） Logistic回归分析各生态景观的ROC值均大于0.87，拟合结果能够满足预测要求；CA-Markov模拟ESV空间布局，Kappa系数为0.86，可以在整体上较准确的反映其空间演变格局。（4）2015-2025年ESV空间演化表明西南地区各区域生态环境总体趋于良好，但建设用地增加的生态负效应不可忽视，还需合理进行用地布局。研究揭示了西南地区过去-现在-未来ESV时空演化规律，提供了长时间序列的时空演化图谱，对该地区实施卓有成效的生态规划及可持续发展提供了科技支撑和重要参考。



Abstract:The ecosystem service value (ESV) plays a key role to build a global ecological security pattern in order to reveal the evolution characteristics and future evolution of ESV in southwestern China. The revised ESV coefficient was used to quantitatively analyze the dynamic evolution of ESV in the study area from 2005 to 2015. We used the logistics-CA-Markov model to predict the ESV space evolution in 2025. The results showed that:(1) From 2005 to 2015, the total ESV increased by 20.85 billion RMB in southwest China mainly due to the increase of ESV in Qinghai and Tibet waters, and the growth rate of ESV had absolute advantages in Qinghai and Tibet.(2)In the study area, the distribution patterns of ESV in the northwest and southeast were high and low in the north. ESV of different types and grades were spatially converted, and the conversion from low to high grades was obvious. The profit was greater than the loss, and the ecological environment was obviously improved. (3) The Logistic regression analysis showed that the ROC values of all ecological landscapes were more than 0.87, and the fitting results could meet the forecasting requirement. CA-Markov simulated spatial layout of ESV, and the Kappa coefficient was 0.86, which could accurately reflect the spatial evolution pattern of the overall landscape. (4)The spatial evolution map showed the dynamic changes of ESV in various regions of southwest China from 2015 to 2025, reflecting the advantages and disadvantages of the ecological environment. The general trend of the ecological environment in the region tends to be good, but the ecological negative effect of the increase in construction land can not be ignored. It is necessary to rationalize the layout and build an environment-friendly society. In the future, the ecological planning must be carefully laid out. This study provides a detailed spatial evolution map of ESV. It is significance to the implementation of the effective ecological planning and provides a scientific basis for achieving sustainable development.





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