摘要:针对年际间的土地覆被变化的空间分异特性及驱动机理解析问题，采用Python和R语言构建了土地覆盖变化的时空动态概率模型和驱动力综合分析模型，实现了21世纪以来"新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊（NECBEC）"土地覆盖时空动态变化特征及驱动机理的定量分析。研究结果表明，在2001-2017年间，NECBEC的土地覆盖变化总体呈现出三增（草地、耕地和建设用地分别增加11457万hm²、841万hm²和396万hm²）和三减（林地、水域和湿地、和未利用地分别减少7409万hm²、4659万hm²和626万hm²）趋势。其中，未利用地和林地主要转换为草地，而草地则主要转为林地和耕地。建设用地年际增加幅度最大，其新增面积中耕地贡献达到50%。另外，自2013年"一带一路"倡议启动以来，NECBEC区域的各种土地覆盖类型之间的相互转换幅度呈现明显增加趋势，而NECBEC沿线国家之间的社会经济发展综合水平集聚性总体上呈减弱趋势，其中综合得分高高聚集区和低低聚集区分别集中在西欧和中亚北部。NECBEC区域的社会经济发展对耕地和建设用地的时空差异性尤为显著。土地覆盖类型在面积变化量和变化速率上，均具有明显的时空分异性。不同的经济发展综合水平对LUCC的类型演替、格局变化和驱动效应不同。



Abstract:To explicitly understand the different characteristics of interannual variabilities in land cover distribution, a dynamic probability model of spatio-temporal change and an integrated analysis model of driving forces in land cover change were developed to compute spatio-temporal dynamic probability of land cover change, and explain the relationship between land cover change and social economic development. Python and R programming languages were operated in the New Eurasian Continental Bridge Economic Corridor (NECBEC) area. The results show that 1) grassland, cultivated land, and build-up land of the NECBEC has increased by 114.57 million hm², 8.41 million hm² and build-up 3.96 million hm², respectively, and forest land, unutilized land, and water area and wetland has decreased by 74.09 million hm², 46.59 million hm², and 6.26 million respectively, from 2001 to 2017. 2) Forest and unutilized land were mainly transformed to grassland, and grassland was mainly transformed to forest and cultivated land. 3) Build-up land has the largest annual increase rate, 50% of which comes from the cultivated land. Moreover, since the launch of the "Belt and Road Initiative" in 2013, the gap of the socio-economic development comprehensive level has gradually decreased, in which the Western Europe area has the highest development index and the Northern Central Asia area has the lowest development index. Impacts of the socio-economic development in land cover change have shown a significant spatio-temporal different characteristic, especially for the distribution change of cultivated land and build-up land. In general, the speed of land cover change has a significantly accelerated trend with the rapid socio-economic development in the NECBEC area.





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