摘要:基于1961-2017年环渤海地区60个地面气象站点的逐日气温和降水资料，计算了各站点逐日气象干旱综合指数（Meteorological drought Composite Index，MCI），统计近57年各站点的气象干旱过程，并进一步分析了环渤海地区各季节气象干旱的时空变化特征及致灾危险性等级分布。结果表明：（1）环渤海地区春季干旱覆盖范围和持续日数呈下降趋势，但干旱强度有所增加，夏、秋两季干旱覆盖范围和持续日数呈上升趋势，而干旱强度有所减少，冬季干旱覆盖范围和干旱强度均呈增加状态，干旱持续日数有所下降。（2）春季干旱覆盖范围、干旱持续日数、干旱强度以及干旱发生频率均居四季之首，干旱状况最严重，夏、秋季次之，冬季最轻。（3）各季节干旱强度和干旱发生频率的高值区主要分布在辽宁西北部、河北中南部以及山东大部分地区，低值区主要位于辽宁东部地区。（4）各季节干旱致灾危险性等级总体呈西高东低、南高北低的分布特征，其中，河北中南部气象干旱的致灾危险性较高，辽宁东部的较低；春旱致灾危险性总体较高，夏、秋季次之，冬季最低。



Abstract:On the basis of observed daily temperature and precipitation data from 60 meteorological stations in the Circum-Bohai-Sea region from 1961 to 2017, which were provided by the National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, the daily meteorological drought composite index (MCI) of each station was calculated, and the meteorological drought process of each station was statistically analyzed for the past 57 years. The spatial-temporal characteristics and hazard risk evaluation of meteorological drought were thoroughly investigated on a seasonal scale in the Circum-Bohai-Sea region. The results showed that both drought coverage area probability and drought duration decreased and drought intensity increased in spring during the period. However, in summer and autumn, both drought coverage area probability and drought duration increased, and drought intensity decreased. The probability of both drought coverage area and drought intensity increased and that of drought duration declined in winter over the study period. Comprehensively, the extent and influence of drought were the most severe in spring, followed by summer and autumn; the drought in winter was relatively slight in the Circum-Bohai-Sea region from 1961 to 2017. Spatially, high values for seasonal drought intensity and drought frequency were observed northwest of Liaoning Province, central and southern Hebei Province, and most parts of Shandong Province. However, low values for seasonal drought intensity and drought frequency were mainly detected in east of Liaoning Province. The distribution of drought hazard risks in all seasons generally presented a similar spatial pattern, "west-high east-low and south-high north-low", in the study area. Specifically, the hazard risk of meteorological drought was generally high in central and south of Hebei Province, but low in east of Liaoning Province. Moreover, the hazard risk of meteorological drought was generally high in spring but low in winter. This study was performed to support the mitigation of drought hazard risks and improve the management of the ecological environment in the Circum-Bohai-Sea region.





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