摘要:马尾松作为南方主要的造林树种，研究其适宜性精准空间分布对其退化评价、造林选地等具有生产指导价值。本研究采用多元线性回归克里金模型利用R语言对湖北省降雨量、气温等15个气象因子进行30×30m的空间插值，插值结果作为气象因子空间变量，插值的交叉检验结果≥ 90%。利用30m的DEM提取坡度、坡向、高程3个地形因子空间变量。首先利用年均温、最冷月最低温、年降水量、高程、土壤类型等限制性因子进行空间叠加排除不适宜的空间单元，然后在可能适宜的空间单元内，再基于18个空间变量和294个样方数据，利用最大熵模型（MAXENT）计算每个格网的适宜性指数，最后按照适宜指数进行适宜性分类。区别于以往大尺度区域研究，其结果是落实到地块尺度的精准计算。结果表明：ROC模型的评价效果达到较好水平（ROC=0.826），高程、土壤、降雨相对标准差、最湿季降雨量、坡度、年均温为湖北省马尾松的适宜性主要影响因子，马尾松中、强适宜区主要分布在湖北省东北部及中北部地区，主要分布在高程低于1200m、坡度在40°以下、年均温13-18℃的区域，中等及以上适生区面积共计4.65万km²，占湖北省总面积的25.01%。



Abstract:Pinus massoniana is the main afforestation tree species in the south of China, and so it is important to study precise spatial distribution of the suitability of Pinus massoniana, which has high value for guiding evaluation of its degradation and selection of land for afforestation. In this study, interpolated results of meteorological factors such as precipitation and temperature in Hubei Province at a 30×30 m spatial level were attained by using the multivariate linear regression Kriging model. This model used meteorological factors as spatial variables. The cross-check results of interpolation were ≥ 90%. Meanwhile, the study used DEM data at a 30 m resolution to extract three terrain factor spatial variables:slope, aspect, and elevation. First, the study used the annual mean temperature, the min temperature of coldest month, the annual precipitation, the elevation, the soil type, and other restrictive factors to carry out spatial superposition to exclude unsuitable spatial units, and then, based on the 18 spatial variables and data from 294 samples, determined the suitability index of each grid by using the maximum entropy model (MAXENT). Finally, it performed a suitability classification for the suitability index in all grids and obtained the spatial distribution of the suitability of Pinus massoniana in the study area. Different from previous large-scale regional studies, this method allowed for accurate calculations at a small land unit scale. The results showed that the evaluation effect of the ROC model reached a good level (ROC=0.826). The elevation, soil, relative standard deviation of precipitation, the precipitation of wettest quarter, slope and annual mean temperature were the main factors affecting the suitability of Pinus massoniana in Hubei Province. The most suitable areas are mainly distributed in the northeast and north central areas of Hubei Province and areas with the elevation of less than 1200m, a slope of 40° or less, and an average annual temperature of 13-18℃. The moderately and highly suitable areas total 46,500 km², accounting for 25.01% of the total area of Hubei Province.





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