摘要:将丝绸之路经济带核心区新疆城镇建设用地扩展作为一个时空变化系统进行分析，提取1980-2015年7个年份用地演变信息，结合10 km×10 km方格网构建，从总量趋势、分地州市级区域、分用地类型及特殊性全面认知扩展的时空演变特征，采用地理探测器模型，在县域尺度定量诊断城镇建设用地扩展的人文要素和自然要素的影响程度及各要素间的交互影响作用，进而识别其主控要素并探讨其作用机理，对比分析天山北坡城市群和喀什都市圈两个重点发展区域的分异性。研究结果表明：近35年以来，丝绸之路经济带核心区新疆城镇建设用地扩展约2.9倍，扩展强度波动增长且以分散小斑块为主，各地州市扩展规模和强度的时空差异性显著，次一级城镇建设用地类型扩展呈现动态变化特征，用地扩展受自然本底胁迫条件和经济社会发展过程多重影响有其特殊性；全域城镇建设用地在县域尺度以低水平扩展与各级人文要素和自然要素水平的耦合匹配关系为主；综合地理探测器因子分析模块和交互作用模块的探测结果，判定地形位指数、城镇化率、地形起伏度、二三产业比重为影响丝绸之路经济带核心区新疆县域城镇建设用地扩展的主控要素，并探寻各主控要素的作用机理；在重点发展区域天山北坡城市群和喀什都市圈的驱动要素有共性也有明显分异性。该研究为丝绸之路经济带核心区新疆城镇建设用地因地因城因类的差别化调控及区域可持续发展提供科学支撑和决策依据。



Abstract:The expansion of urban construction land in Xinjiang, the Core Area of the Silk Road Economic Belt, was analyzed as comprising a spatio-temporal change system. Information regarding land use change over 7 years from 1980 to 2015 was extracted. Using a 10 km×10 km grid, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use expansion were comprehensively assessed from the viewpoints of the gross trend, sub-prefecture-level regions, sub-land types and distinctiveness. Using the Geographical Detector model, the degree of influence of human and natural elements of urban construction land expansion and the interaction between various elements were quantitatively diagnosed at the county level. Then, the main control elements were identified and their mechanism of action discussed. The differentiation between the two key development areas of the Tianshan North-slope urban agglomeration and Kashgar metropolitan region was analyzed. The results showed that, over the past 35 years, urban construction land in Xinjiang had expanded by about 2.9 times. The intensity of the expansion fluctuated, and expansion was dominated by scattered small patches. There were significant spatial and temporal differences in the scale and intensity of the expansion in various regions. The expansion of urban land and other construction land presented dynamic change characteristics. The distinctiveness of urban construction land expansion were affected by natural background constraints and economic and social development. At the county level, the low-level expansion of urban construction land and human and natural factors at all levels was the main spatial coupling and matching relationship over the entire study area. Based on the results of the factor analysis module and interaction module of the Geographic Detector, it was concluded that terrain niche index, urbanization rate, landform relief degree, and the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries were the main controlling factors affecting the expansion of urban construction land in Xinjiang. The underlying mechanisms of the main control factors were also explored. There were similarities and differences in driving factors in the key development areas, the Tianshan North-slope urban agglomeration and Kashgar metropolitan region. The present study provides scientific support and a basis for decision-making for the sustainable development of Xinjiang and the differential regulation of urban construction land due to different locations, cities, and sub-land types.





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