摘要:气候变化广泛影响着物种多样性及其分布变迁。优化模型模拟结果，获取气候变化影响下的优先保护区域将为制定应对气候变化的物种保护政策或行动提供理论依据，提升保护绩效。选取东北地区五种代表性动物，包括黑熊（Ursus thibetanus）、驼鹿（Alces alces）、水獭（Lutra lutra）、紫貂（Martes zibellina）及黑嘴松鸡（Tetrao parvirostris）；结合最大熵模型（Maxent）模拟在不同RCP情景下未来3个年代（2030s，2050s，2070s）的物种潜在栖息地。根据九个常用气候模式的评价结果，获取东北地区合适的气候模式，了解气候变化对物种潜在栖息地的影响，同时开展物种保护规划，识别保护空缺，为应对气候变化、保持生物多样性提供支持。结果显示，在气候变化背景下物种潜在栖息地面积整体呈现下降趋势，但不同气候模式之间存在差异；评价结果推荐CCSM4、NorESM1-M、HadGEM2-AO及GFDL-CM3气候模式，推荐在东北地区使用以上气候模式进行物种未来潜在分布的研究。5个物种潜在栖息地平均面积变化率分别为-62.16%，-73.93%，-78.46%（2030s，2050s，2070s）。综合5个重点保护物种的保护优先区，大兴安岭的呼中、汗马与额尔古纳国家级自然保护区，延边地区的天佛指山、老爷岭东北虎、珲春东北虎与汪清原麝国家级自然保护区，长白山国家级自然保护区是气候变化下物种保护的热点区域。



Abstract:Global climate change has already altered species distribution and diversity. It is significant to study the priority protection area of species to develop dynamic strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. In the current study, we estimated the potential distribution of five species (Asian black bear (Ursus thibetanus), moose (Alces alces), otter (Lutra lutra), sable (Martes zibellina), and black-billed capercaillie (Tetrao parvirostris)) in Northeast China over time using Maxent. We used nine general circulation models (GCMs), and four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to derive future climate projections over three time periods (2030, 2050, 2070), and then modeled species distributions using these predicted environmental measurements for each time period. Zonation was combined with the results from Maxent to identify priority areas, which were further used to optimize the current nature reserve systems. According to the evaluation results of nine GCMs, appropriate climate models in Northeast China were obtained. Based on the GAP analysis for these conservation priority areas, proposals for priority conservation plans were made. The results showed that climate change in the study area would cause a considerable decline in the total distribution areas of the five species. However, different projections by GCMs may cause uncertainty of the predicted distributions. By comparing the species potential distributions, these four GCMs (CCSM4, NorESM1-M, HadGEM2-AO, and GFDL-CM3) performed well in Northeast China. The mean percentage of species potential range loss increased, as 62.16% range loss by 2030; -73.93% by 2050; and -78.46% by 2070. Conservation priority areas were mainly distributed in a few national nature reserves in the Changbai, Lesser Khingan, Greater Hinggan, and Wanda mountains.





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