,1,2, 黄健柏,1,2, 钟美瑞1,2, 谌金宇1,2, 刘刚3, 宋益4A review on the impact of technological progress on critical metal mineral demand
DONG Xuesong,1,2, HUANG Jianbai,1,2, ZHONG Meirui1,2, CHEN Jinyu1,2, LIU Gang3, SONG Yi4通讯作者:
收稿日期:2020-02-17修回日期:2020-08-2网络出版日期:2020-08-25
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Received:2020-02-17Revised:2020-08-2Online:2020-08-25
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董雪松,女,辽宁营口人,博士生,研究方向为资源经济与管理。E-mail:
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董雪松, 黄健柏, 钟美瑞, 谌金宇, 刘刚, 宋益. 技术进步对关键金属矿产需求影响的研究综述. 资源科学[J], 2020, 42(8): 1592-1603 doi:10.18402/resci.2020.08.13
DONG Xuesong, HUANG Jianbai, ZHONG Meirui, CHEN Jinyu, LIU Gang, SONG Yi.
1 引言
关键矿产是近年美国和欧盟等西方发达国家提出的概念[1],目前国际上尚无统一、严格的定义,在不同国家、不同时段、不同场合会给出不同的动态界定概念。一般来说,所谓关键矿产是指对国家经济和安全至关重要、在人类社会发展到关键阶段发挥关键性作用的紧缺矿种或者优势矿种[2,3,4]。如铜和锡开启了青铜时代,铁开启了农耕文明时代,锗和硅开启了微电子时代和信息时代。而在中国特色社会主义新时代,关键金属矿产则是指对新能源产业、信息技术产业、高端装备制造业等战略性新兴产业发展具有不可替代重大用途的一类金属元素及其矿床的总称[5,6],大致包括稀有、稀土、稀散金属（简称“三稀”金属）、稀贵金属（铂族金属）和部分在中国被称为有色金属而国际上公认属于稀有金属的锑、锡、钴、钛、钒等[3]。各国或机构所认定的关键金属矿产高度重合,反映出各国对第四轮工业革命中诞生的战略性新兴产业和高新技术产业的关注,以及对支撑这些产业发展的关键金属矿产的高度认同[7]。改革开放40年来发展奇迹的创造离不开矿产资源的有力支撑和保障[8]。而关键金属作为支撑中国经济高质量发展、低碳能源转型和高新技术发展的重要矿种,是维系国民经济正常运行、经济调整及产业升级的关键,也是未来增强国家竞争力的关键[3]。当今世界贸易冲突加剧,国际形势面临更大不确定性,发达国家基础金属消费总量普遍达到或接近峰值,关键金属矿产的战略性不断凸显,目前已有多国根据自身新兴产业发展和制造业转型需要,相继发布关键原材料清单,纷纷推出“再工业化”战略,加剧了对关键金属矿产的争夺[9]。同时,中国已进入生态文明发展新阶段,大量消耗资源、不计环境成本的赶超式战略受到抑制,中国目前还处于工业化中后期,未来经济高质量发展和战略性新兴产业发展,仍需要大量关键金属支撑。经济有效性驱动下的资源使用将带来自主创新,由此催生的发展方式和产业结构变化,使得关键金属矿产需求呈现出新的特点。在以上三重作用叠加下的关键金属需求演变规律及其预测成为支撑中国第二个百年目标和经济高质量发展的重大理论课题。
过去的几十年中,越来越多的关键金属被用于支撑技术进步带来的特殊功能[10],尤其是21世纪以来,随着新技术革命的兴起,新能源技术与现代信息、材料和先进制造技术的深度融合依赖多种关键金属材料,进而影响关键金属矿产的需求,并推动其需求结构转型。技术所需的金属,以及技术在金属市场中的预期作用逐渐成为选择技术的一个重要标准[11],而评估关键金属矿产未来的需求更取决于新技术的突破和发展[12]。在这一背景下,关键金属的需求问题被赋予了新的内涵,面临更为复杂的风险与不确定性,受到极大关注[13],技术进步对关键金属矿产需求影响等问题亟待深入探讨。当前,新一轮技术革命迅猛发展,清洁能源与新材料等技术的推广与应用将通过应用拓展或替代效应,对应用端的关键金属需求产生深远影响[14]。如风力发电、燃料电池等技术的突破和应用将影响铂族、稀土等关键金属的需求[15]。太阳能光伏技术中稀土永磁风力发电机的广泛推广对相关11种关键金属的需求有重要影响[16]。此外,重型车领域全面电动化的绿色低碳技术将明显提升以锂为代表的关键金属需求,而铂族金属可以有效支撑未来燃料电池汽车的发展[17,18]。基于此,许多****对基于技术进步的关键金属矿产资源需求预测展开研究。考虑到关键金属技术路线变更快的特点,深入剖析技术进步对其需求的影响机制并精准预测其需求成为两大关键点与难点。
近年来,新技术、新材料、新产业的不断突破和快速发展对关键金属矿产需求产生哪些影响?如何厘清技术进步对关键金属需求的影响机制?怎样基于技术进步提出切实可行的研究框架,对关键金属矿产需求总量和结构进行精准预测?研判这些问题不仅对拓展资源需求理论与方法、丰富资源安全理论具有重要理论价值,而且对提前洞察关键金属矿产需求趋势与演变规律、化解供给约束瓶颈,进而保障国家金属资源安全、支撑中国第二个百年目标和经济高质量发展具有重大现实意义。据此,论文系统梳理国内外相关研究进展,尝试厘清技术进步对关键金属矿产需求的影响机制,进一步提出未来基于技术进步的关键金属需求预测研究的重点方向和分析框架,为构建中国新时代的关键金属资源战略提供理论和实证支撑。
2 技术进步对关键金属矿产需求的影响机制
关键金属作为支撑中国经济和高新技术产业发展的重要矿产资源,技术的不断进步将从供应端和需求端对其产生影响,但两者的作用机理存在显著差别。从供给端来看,以共生矿分离、生物选矿等为代表的采选冶技术进步,直接提高了关键金属的开发利用效率,再循环技术的突破则通过循环效应增加关键金属可回收品种、提高回收效率,影响关键金属矿产资源的供给。如由于锂电池回收技术的突破,二次资源的锂在2030年将对总供应量产生可识别的影响[19]。而从需求端来看,新技术、新材料、新业态的发展通过促进经济增长和产业结构转型升级间接拉动或减少相应关键金属的消费需求,而循环替代技术将直接或间接影响一次关键金属资源需求。两端影响机制的区别在于,供给端的技术进步对关键金属供给存在直接影响,而需求端的技术进步对关键金属需求既有直接影响又有间接影响,其影响机制更为复杂和多层次。下文主要针对这一方面进行详细阐述。对矿产资源消费的研究始于矿产资源可持续优化利用理论[18]。Hartwick等[20]在此基础上进行拓展,重点研究了矿产资源的有效配置和使用效率。此后,矿产资源需求的影响因素研究引起国内外****的普遍关注[21]。现有研究多采用弹性系数法[22]、结构分解法（SDA）[23,24]、指数分解法（IDA）[25]、生产理论分解方法（PDA）[26,27]、结构路径分解法（SPD）[28]和计量模型法[29,30,31]等,得出了技术进步是影响矿产资源需求的重要因素这一结论。而关键金属的需求问题包括需求总量与结构两大内容,其本质又是经济增长模式和发展阶段问题,讨论技术进步对关键金属需求的影响,就不能不讨论中国的经济增长和产业结构变化,特别是那些不同于国际发展经验、具有中国特色的问题。技术进步主要通过拓展其应用领域和替代循环等渠道对不同关键金属需求产生不同的影响,一方面,技术的迅猛发展拓宽了关键金属的用途,促进其进入新的消费领域,并大幅提高关键金属使用效率,降低消费强度,引起高科技产品消费激增[32],大大增加相关关键金属需求。另一方面,技术进步可以通过改善关键金属资源循环利用效率,或为突破现有应用中关键材料所使用关键金属的替代技术来促进或转移需求,改变其需求总量和结构。
概括而言,技术进步影响关键金属需求的传导机制主要有3种,分别是经济增长效应、产业结构效应和替代循环效应（图1）。
图1
新窗口打开|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT图1技术进步对关键金属矿产需求的影响路径
Figure 1Pathway of technological progress affecting critical metal mineral demand
2.1 经济增长效应
面对疫情全球大流行、国际金融危机、欧美经济深度衰退、中美贸易摩擦、转型升级等重大挑战,中国经济正迈向高质量发展[33],亟需新的增长点。一个国家或地区经济增长的动力从短期看是来自于资本、劳动力等生产要素的投入,但长期的增长还要依赖于技术进步所带来的全要素生产率的提高,即技术进步是经济增长的源动力[34,35]。如通过大力发展5G、特高压、太阳能和风力发电技术、人工智能、工业互联网、城际高速铁路和城际轨道交通、新能源汽车充电桩等创新型技术,以技术进步稳增长[33]。经济增长会进一步影响关键金属需求。首先,经济增长将作用于战略新兴产业链中各节点,通过产业间的横纵向关系,推动关键矿产上游和下游产业链高端技术的发展,拉动太阳能和风力发电技术、新能源车及充电桩板块等建设规模,进而对所需的镉、碲、铅、锌、钴、锂等关键金属需求产生影 响[36,37,38,39],即经济增长能够反过来推动技术进步,技术进步与经济增长作为相互促进的两个因素,良性互动下,新技术的不断突破将持续影响关键金属的需求。其次,经济增长到一定程度带来的经济结构调整,能够改变关键金属需求。在经济增长初期,投入增加和产能扩张意味着对关键金属资源的过度使用,导致资源和环境的压力。随着经济增长超过一定规模,对增长质量的追求势必带来经济结构调整,而经济结构调整与工业化密切相关,且以稀有稀散金属为主的小矿产,如钽、铌、锂、稀土、钪、锗、镓、铟、铼、碲、砷等不仅是美国、欧盟、英国等发达经济体关注的重点,同时也是与中国未来建设5G通信站、物流网、新能源汽车充电站等新基建密切相关的关键矿产[14],是经济高质量增长和经济结构调整的关键,其需求必然会受到深远影响。
2.2 产业结构效应
技术进步还通过产业结构效应对关键金属需求产生影响。产业结构升级是技术进步的动力,技术进步更是产业结构转型升级的根本途径[40]。总的来说,技术进步从投入结构和最终需求结构两个方面影响产业结构。一方面,随着技术的发展,对初级商品的投入依赖逐渐转移到中间商品和最终商品,初级产品的投入减少,而制成品投入增加,中间商品使用量比重上升,促进了产业结构的转型升级。另一方面,技术进步通过节省劳动力、能源、金属等投入要素的成本,增加对应产品需求,进而改变了最终需求结构,对产业结构产生影响[41]。同时,产业结构效应会严重影响关键金属需求。从整体工业化进程来看,根据工业化发展与资源开发阶段性理论,不同发展阶段下各类资源的作用存在差异。随着工业化的发展,资源的需求结构则会发生显著变化[42]。而关键金属消费贯穿国家工业化始终,其消费趋势随着产业结构变化呈现出鲜明的阶段性特征[43],尤其在进入工业化中后期之后,产业结构高级化,战略性新兴产业的迅猛发展使相关关键金属需求逐步扩大[44,45]。如节能环保产业中的高效节能产业和先进环保产业对镓、稀土金属和稀贵金属有较强的依赖性,新一代信息技术产业的发展将消耗较多锂、锗、镓、铟、铊等关键金属,生物产业将增加钛和稀贵金属的需求,铍、铷、铯、钛、铌、钽、钨、钼和铼等对高端装备制造产业的发展具有重要作用,新材料产业依赖钛和钨,新能源产业的发展和普及将拉动钛、锆、铪和铌等关键金属的需求,此外,以锂、钴、镍、铂族金属等为代表的关键金属矿产,在以纯电动汽车、燃料电池汽车为代表的下一代交通绿色低碳技术中发挥支撑作用[14]。
2.3 替代循环效应
随着替代、循环技术的引入,对一些关键金属需求增加,而对另一些关键金属的需求将减少[46]。一方面,技术的突破可以通过对现有应用中的关键金属进行替代来降低其临界性。如2009年UNEP发布的《未来可持续技术所使用的关键金属及其回收潜力》报告指出,电子技术的迭代更新将引致关键金属之间的替代[47]。具体来说,镍氢电池正逐渐被锂离子电池取代,铝掺杂氧化锌对液晶显示器中的铟锡氧化物、电容器中的各种稀土化合物存在替代潜力[48,49]。另一方面,循环技术的发展将使我们在未来用更少的关键金属生成相同的服务,从而促进相关产品的生产,或在产量不变的前提下减少对一次关键金属资源的需求[50],进而降低对外依存度。同时,某种关键金属的循环技术发展可能会鼓励对其他可替代品种的替代行为,间接影响两种关键金属的需求,如过氧化钠电池具有更好的循环性能和能源效率[51,52],在大规模储能方面极具优势,一旦突破现存的技术瓶颈,就将引发对锂的替代倾向。3 基于技术进步的关键金属矿产需求预测研究进展
探究技术变革背景下关键金属需求变化趋势,对构建中国中长期随技术进步调整的关键金属消费图谱,提前洞察其需求演变规律、化解资源约束瓶颈,保障国家金属资源安全具有重要意义。20世纪初对石油耗竭时间的预测,开辟了矿产资源消费预测研究领域。早期分析金属需求多采用生产函数或需求函数[53]。目前预测大宗金属需求主要采用趋势外推法[54]、BP人工神经网络预测[55]、消费强度存量驱动模型[56]、灰色预测模型[57]、部门或产品预测分析法[58]、IPAT模型[59]、回归和库存动态模型[60]等方法。考虑到关键金属在多方面有别于大宗金属矿产,具有应用涉及面广、技术路线变更快等特点,已有研究中大宗金属需求预测领域广泛使用的“S”型规律和“倒U”型规律[61,62,63,64,65]等传统方法对关键金属不具有适用性,为能更精准、合理地预测关键金属需求,就要采用区别于大宗金属领域的研究方法和框架。针对关键金属特点,****们基于技术进步对锂、铟、钨、钴、碲等需求预测进行了分类研究[66]。其中一些研究仅评估了一种技术,例如太阳能光伏技术,风力发电技术,新能源汽车技术等[36,67,68]。其他****则处理了一组可再生技术组合[11,69,70],提供有关新兴技术未来发展所需关键金属的有用信息。根据3种间接效应,相关研究主要采用以下路径：技术进步—经济增长—关键金属矿产,技术进步—产业结构—关键金属矿产,技术进步—替代循环—关键金属矿产。
3.1 技术进步—经济增长—关键金属矿产耦合
目前研究大多只对“技术进步—经济增长”或“经济增长—金属矿产”分别进行讨论。韩莹[34]、李晓宁[35]分别通过静态分析和动态模拟实证表明技术进步对经济增长有突出贡献。其他文献以人均GDP衡量经济增长水平,研究发现经济增长是金属消费的主要驱动因素。如王安建等[62,63,64]指出,中国工业化进程中,单种金属消费与人均GDP的关系符合“S”型规律。Wiedmann等[71]对1990—2008年186个国家的金属消费进行了时间序列分析,认为经济合作及发展组织和欧盟27国的金属消费足迹与GDP同步增长。可以看出,现有考虑经济增长效应的研究仅关注了大宗金属领域,且通常将“技术进步—经济增长—金属矿产”割裂开,对技术进步—经济增长—关键金属矿产框架的理论和实证研究不足;用来预测的方法仍停留在适用于大宗金属的“S”型规律和“倒U”型规律,对应用领域集中、技术路线变更快的关键金属。3.2 技术进步—产业结构—关键金属矿产耦合
从已有研究来看,基于技术进步—产业结构—关键金属矿产耦合的文献较为丰富,研究框架一般遵循“情景设置—定量预测”模式。对于情景设置,目前已经开发了几种全球和区域能源情景方案用来分析能源、水和资源材料系统的未来情况[66,72-74]。这些情景通常考虑全球一体化发展趋势、生态、经济、技术等宏观因素。但在实际应用中,传统的情景方案不能很好地满足需求,需要根据不同研究目的和研究对象来设置。为此,****们设置了具有异质性和针对性的情景[37,38,39],并广泛用作技术进步视角下关键金属需求预测的基础。对于如何在情景设置的基础上实现关键金属需求预测,现有文献提供了一些可参考的思路。主要方法有基于材料强度的预测方法[75,76,77,78],系统动力学模型（SD）[79,80],物质流分析（MFA）模型[81,82,83],Bass模型[39],基于生命周期评估（LCA）的投入产出方法[84],经济模型[85],或系统动力学与物质流相结 合[86,87]。其中,基于材料强度的预测方法、系统动力学和物质流模型的应用最为广泛。
Yano等[19]基于材料强度预测了到2030年日本混合动力汽车对稀有金属的需求。Houari等[80]使用系统动力学（SD）模型预测将来的太阳能光伏技术部署,首次尝试用动态供需参数解决此类预测问题。Sverdrup[88]构建了一个包括全球锂开采和需求、资源等级、市场和价格等因素的系统动力学模型。Liu等[79]根据锂市场价格、供需差距、进口量和锂消费构成趋势等因素设置情景,在此基础上使用系统动力学模型预测电能存储（EES）和新能源汽车（NEV）中金属锂的需求。这些方法能够定量预测关键金属需求,但其预测主要基于流量指标,忽略了社会经济系统中物质资本存量累积的内在规律,对短期趋势预测有一定适用性,但无法反映社会经济代谢过程中关键金属需求长期演变的非线性特征,缺乏稳健性,预测精度具有较高的不确定性[89,90]。
基于此,Müller[91]提出了动态物质流分析方法,通过估算人口及其生活方式来同时确定国家或地区资源需求和废物产生。与其他方法相比,动态物质流模型不是通过反馈回路在内部产生动态变化,而是根据情景方案动态地进行模拟预测[92],系统计算在工业系统中的物质流[93],近年来越来越多地被用于分析新兴技术中的关键金属需求问题[94,95]。其中一些研究分析一种或一组关键金属在其所有最终用途部门中的流动[76],如Habib等[96]根据政策和技术、产品的市场渗透率等因素设置情景方案,预测了风力涡轮机、电动汽车、计算机等终端使用中钕和镝的需求量。Martin等[97]使用类似方法,通过推测锂所有应用领域技术的发展趋势,预测其使用量。而其他研究则分析特定技术或一系列技术的关键金属需求[69,98-100]。如Elshkaki等[70]设定7种能源场景,采用动态物质流模型,通过研究发电技术,分析出能源系统低碳化所需的关键金属及在此过程中由于技术进步使得供需风险降低的关键金属。Cao等[68]进一步收集大量单体风机微观技术数据,对丹麦未来风电技术发展过程中稀有金属钕、镝的需求与循环再生潜力进行了全面预测。
3.3 技术进步—替代循环—关键金属矿产耦合
目前在关键金属需求研究领域中,考虑替代循环因素的文献较少,且研究对象单一,但随着相关技术不断突破与改进,替代循环效应越来越引起关注。如Yano等[19]估计了2010—2030年日本混合动力传动装置中的稀土金属回收潜力。Martin等[97]考虑高端领域和日常应用中的锂替代品,创建了2020年锂的需求预测模型。实证结果预计,在2030年,二次资源的锂将产生可识别的影响,到2050年,将代替25%的一次锂资源需求量,其中最大的回收潜力在于锂电池。4 结论
本文基于国内外相关研究进展,主要从技术进步对关键金属矿产资源需求影响机制和基于技术进步的关键金属需求预测两个方面,系统全面地梳理了已有研究成果,为进一步将技术进步嵌入关键金属需求预测框架奠定基础。对已有研究现状评价如下：（1）技术进步对关键金属需求影响研究成果不断涌现。通过分析整理已有成果发现,相关文献多从技术进步测度、技术进步对关键金属需求影响和基于技术进步的关键金属需求预测等方面对该问题进行研究。研究尺度多为全球、国家或某一特定行业。总体看来,国内外****在这一问题上的关注越来越多,相关研究成果丰富了该领域的研究内容、创新了研究框架与方法,对以后的研究具有很好的指导和借鉴意义。但目前对微观产品尺度分析不足,分辨率不高,研究框架没有形成统一的体系,用于预测需求情况的数据和方法存在高度不确定性,还需进一步探讨[101]。
（2）技术进步对关键金属需求影响机制尚未统一。目前大多数文献在这一问题上重现状研究而轻演变剖析。随着新一轮技术革命兴起,技术进步对不同关键金属需求产生不同影响,要想突破现有文献对技术进步外生的假定,应具体到技术进步内生于关键金属需求变化的微观作用机制上,考虑经济增长、产业结构和替代循环等效应。在这一方面,现有研究大多只对“技术进步—经济增长”或“经济增长—大宗金属矿产”的关系分别进行讨论,而对技术进步—经济增长—关键金属整体框架的理论和实证研究不足。虽然基于技术进步—产业结构—关键金属矿产耦合的研究越来越多,但大多专注于预测结果,没有对其中的传导路径进行深入剖析。总的来看,技术进步—关键金属的微观作用机制并没有定量化展开,还处于黑箱化。
（3）基于技术进步的关键金属需求预测研究框架有待规范。目前矿产资源需求预测体系较为成熟,已将大部分矿产资源涵盖在内,且研究手段与方法也趋于多样化,研究领域主要集中于大宗矿产消费规律及峰值预测。对基于技术进步的关键金属需求研究主要考虑经济增长、产业结构和替代循环3种效应。前者的研究方法仍停留在传统的“S”型规律和“倒U”型规律,没有充分考虑技术进步的影响,对关键金属需求的预测缺乏针对性。同时,考虑替代循环效应的文献较少,研究对象单一,这与替代循环技术仍处在发展初期有关。而目前在技术进步—产业结构—关键金属矿产耦合方面已经有了很多研究成果,广泛采用的“情景设置—定量预测”研究框架虽然能在一定程度上表征技术进步对未来关键金属需求的影响,但传导路径中各因素的相互作用在很大程度上没有得到体现。由于产业特点、投入情况等因素的行业差异性较大,情景设置选取的设计因素也存在决策单元差异较大的缺陷,具有一定主观性和随意性。且研究中选择的不同预测方法虽然能从不同角度实现预测,但结合研究对象对所选方法的适用性进行论述的文献不多,导致结果存在偏差。此外,预测方法本身存在的缺陷也会导致结果的误差。
5 研究展望
基于文献系统梳理,未来研究可以从以下4个方面深入拓展：（1）构建技术进步作用关键金属需求预测的整体分析框架。考虑到关键金属应用涉及面广、技术路线变更快等特点,其需求预测采取区别于大宗金属矿产需求预测的理论模型和方法。未来可以沿本文提练的技术进步—经济增长—关键金属矿产、技术进步—产业结构—关键金属矿产、技术进步—替代循环—关键金属矿产3条作用路径继续深化研究,即技术进步—经济增长—主金属—伴生关键金属、技术进步—新材料—关键金属、低碳能源技术—清洁能源产品—关键金属等更加细化的微观路径来分类预测关键金属需求演变趋势。预测理论模型和方法构建方面,应结合研究对象特点和研究目的,基于科学性、客观性等原则,选取能够体现影响传导路径的设定因素和预测模型,结合大数据理念展开预测分析,增强预测结果的政策指导作用。大量研究比较关注技术进步产生的直接影响,但从中长期来看,预测理论模型和方法构建过程中更应考虑各种中介变量或者调节变量的影响,甚至相关政策因素的干预作用。
（2）在产业结构与关键金属关系分析中,重点关注低碳能源技术、战略新兴产业发展对关键金属需求的推动机理。相比传统能源依赖化石、水等资源,清洁能源不管是在种类还是数量方面都依赖更多的关键金属。如节能环保产业将拉大对镓、稀土金属和稀贵金属的需求,而钛、锆、铪和铌等的供需平衡问题也将制约新能源产业的发展。在清洁能源行业政策红利的推动下,清洁能源技术的推广与应用对关键金属需求产生了巨大冲击。如何基于清洁能源技术—关键金属矿产耦合的角度,合理预测关键金属需求变化,并据此推出相关政策,让清洁能源技术能打破资源约束长期持续地运营下去,还需要大量的科学研究和实践探索。未来应该在更加关注清洁能源技术的前提下,继续深入研究技术进步对关键金属需求的影响。
（3）在技术进步与关键金属关系研究中,推进技术进步测度研究,解决实证分析中的难点问题。测度技术进步是需求预测研究中的难点。由于技术进步的特点,直接衡量其质量和数量不够精准,但可以采用相关替代性指标来反映,如专利活动指标和单位价值指标可以针对不同领域,研究技术进步对不同种类关键金属需求的影响[102,103,104,105,106,107]。总的来说,技术进步测度已从同质走向差异化,但仍存在指标选择不全面、没有统一选取依据的缺点。未来技术进步测度应逐渐趋向微观和差异化,并借鉴Acemoglu[108]提出的技术进步偏向内生化的理念和方法,将技术进步内生到关键金属需求框架中。除此之外,还可以通过比较分析不同来源有偏技术进步对关键金属需求影响的差异,估计有偏技术进步对关键金属需求影响的偏弹性,并利用工业行业数据刻画资本、劳动、能源等要素对关键金属需求的动态影响机制,从而预判关键金属需求变化趋势。
（4）在需求预测基础上,为了分析关键金属安全问题,还需从供给端进一步研究技术进步对关键金属矿产的供需影响。新一轮技术革命也将对关键金属的供给端产生重大影响。如以共生矿分离、生物选矿等为代表的采选冶技术进步,提高了复杂多元素共生矿、低品位矿、难选难冶矿的开发利用,以再生铜、再生铝等为代表的金属资源再循环技术增加了金属可回收品种,提高了回收效率。未来可以在技术进步对关键金属供给端冲击这一方面进行下一步研究。以专利地图为基础,从技术活跃度、技术生命周期、技术进化方向3个方面对采选冶技术、替代循环技术进行预测,结合技术扩散理论深入分析这些技术对关键金属资源供给趋势及峰值的影响,阐明作用机理,并突破原有资源供需分析框架中技术不变的假定条件,分析新技术革命对关键金属供给侧的冲击作用。
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世界范围来看,新一轮科技革命和工业革命蓬勃兴起,实体经济向绿色化、智能化、服务化转型发展将对全球矿产资源消费总量和结构产生深远的影响,开展世界及中国矿产资源消费总量、结构的变动趋势及其影响因素等相关研究具有重大的理论和现实意义。本文从矿产资源消费对产业结构演进的影响、工业化对矿产资源消费总量和结构变动的作用以及研究方法三个方面对已有研究成果进行了梳理。综述发现已有研究成果对于支撑战略性新兴产业发展的关键稀有金属消费的研究不足,同时忽视了技术创新和环境保护对矿产资源消费的影响。鉴于中国与发达国家的工业化路径不同,今后应强化对后起工业化大国矿产资源消费规律的探索,精准刻画原材料库兹涅兹曲线,科学研判和揭示技术创新和绿色发展对矿产资源消费的影响,从而更好地为新时代矿产资源开发利用战略调整提供理论和实证支撑。
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石油消费是能源消费的重要组成部分。为全面分析我国石油消费量变化情况及其影响因素，本文利用LMDI指数分解法将影响石油消费增长的因素分解为化石能耗结构效应、非清洁能耗效应、能源强度效应和经济规模效应四个部分。分解结果表明，经济规模效应是造成我国石油消费增长的主要原因；除个别年份或省区外，我国能源强度逐年降低，清洁能源消费比例稳步增长，能源结构逐步改善，我国石油供需矛盾趋于缓和。
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JTHERGAS is a versatile calculator (implemented in JAVA) to estimate thermodynamic information from two dimensional graphical representations of molecules and radicals involving covalent bonds based on the Benson additivity method. The versatility of JTHERGAS stems from its inherent philosophy that all the fundamental data used in the calculation should be visible, to see exactly where the final values came from, and modifiable, to account for new data that can appear in the literature. The main use of this method is within automatic combustion mechanism generation systems where fast estimation of a large number and variety of chemical species is needed. The implementation strategy is based on meta-atom definitions and substructure analysis allowing a highly extensible database without modification of the core algorithms. Several interfaces for the database and the calculations are provided from terminal line commands, to graphical interfaces to web-services. The first order estimation of thermodynamics is based summing up the contributions of each heavy atom bonding description. Second order corrections due to steric hindrance and ring strain are made. Automatic estimate of contributions due to internal, external and optical symmetries are also made. The thermodynamical data for radicals is calculated by taking the difference due to the lost of a hydrogen radical taking into account changes in symmetry, spin, rotations, vibrations and steric hindrances. The software is public domain and is based on standard libraries such as CDK and CML.
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The political upheaval and the civil war in Libya had a painful toll on the operational reliability of the electric energy supply system. With frequent power cuts and crumbling infrastructure, mainly due to the damage inflicted upon several power plants and grid assets as well as the lack of maintenance, many Libyans are left without electricity for several hours a day. As the country has a staggeringly immense potential of solar energy, it is inevitable to exploit such potential, to avert system-wide blackouts. This paper investigates the use of small-scale PV systems in local communities as non-wires alternative (NWA), offering excess energy exchange within local/neighboring microgrids (MGs) for reliable electric power supply. Different combinations of PV/storage/diesel distributed generations (DGs), with grid-interface options, were applied on a case study of a typical dwelling in the Eastern Libyan city of Benghazi. Technical and financial feasibility assessments were carried out to contrast between various supply combinations. Sensitivity analysis of the PV-grid system was also conducted using Net Present Value (NPV) and the payback time indicators to determine the impacts of Feed-in Tariff (FiT) rates, financial incentives, electricity tariff, and inflation rate on the economic viability of the PV grid system. Results show that the PV-grid system has a promising potential under reasonable set of varying system parameters. On top of its social and environmental-friendly advantages, the PV-battery system is found to be more economical when adopted as a standalone NWA solution as compared to the diesel generator option, even at the lowest diesel price. The PV-grid system does not only provide a short-term remedy to the rolling blackouts in Libya but also enhances system operational reliability by providing a NWA to rundown or shattered grid infrastructure, thus bolstering energy provision in residential neighborhoods.
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Achievement of sustainability in metal life cycles from mining of virgin ore to consumer and industrial devices to end-of-life products requires greatly increased recycling rates and improved processing of metals using conventional and green chemistry technologies. Electronic and other high-tech products containing precious, toxic, and specialty metals usually have short lifetimes and low recycling rates. Products containing these metals generally are incinerated, discarded as waste in landfills, or dismantled in informal recycling using crude and environmentally irresponsible procedures. Low recycling rates of metals coupled with increasing demand for high-tech products containing them necessitate increased mining with attendant environmental, health, energy, water, and carbon-footprint consequences. In this tutorial review, challenges to achieving metal sustainability, including projected use of urban mining, in present high-tech society are presented; health, environmental, and economic incentives for various government, industry, and public stakeholders to improve metal sustainability are discussed; a case for technical improvements, including use of molecular recognition, in selective metal separation technology, especially for metal recovery from dilute feed stocks is given; and global consequences of continuing on the present path are examined.
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To assess changes in the lithium supply chain resulting from the development of the electric vehicle industry and corresponding impacts, this study established a regional dynamic flow model of the entire anthropogenic life cycle of lithium in China from 2000 to 2050. Based on historical data, this model provides output data including production, consumption and international trade of lithium embodied in five types of commodities. Results indicate that the amount of lithium flow in 2050 will be 13-20 times greater than that in 2015. The lithium applied in electric vehicles will account for the largest proportion of in-use stocks of lithium starting in 2022. Lithium recovery will not play a big role in reducing supply pressure until 2030. Comparing all types of lithium-containing commodities, import dependence on minerals will remain the greatest within the temporal boundary. This factor reflects a nonnegligible risk to the supply demand balance considering the high concentration of mineral import structure in China currently. Several policy recommendations are offered for the optimization of China's flow structure. On the demand side, limited capacity expansion and cutting overcapacity of downstream commodities should be under consideration to distribute lithium import more reasonably. On the supply side, the potential oversupply issues caused by low-grade scrap require further development of recycling technology.
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探寻经济-产业-资源之间内在规律,对把握资源产业发展脉络、明确不同阶段矿产资源战略重点意义重大。本文首先总结了一国经济增速及第二产业占比随人均GDP呈先增长、后达到峰值区的“钟”形变化规律,且二者峰值区均在人均GDP 7 500GK美元左右,其次,通过分析美国和日本产业演进历史,总结了第二产业内部“雁行式”演进序列。进一步提出了资源-产业“雁行式”演进规律：即在理想状态下,对于典型的走工业化发展道路的国家,其产业部门基本遵循建筑→冶金→家电→机械制造→化工与汽车→电力→计算机、电子→航天军工→其他新兴产业等的“雁行式”演进序列,而支撑上述产业发展的矿产资源消费峰期也具有相应的“雁行式”演进序列,美国和日本产业发展与资源消费历史的相关关系较好地验证了该规律。中国工业部门相对完善,矿产资源消费领域相对集中,符合资源-产业“雁行式”演进规律,本文基于该规律建立了中国矿产资源消费图谱,确定了主要矿产资源需求峰值到来时间及峰值水平。
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“制造强国梦、材料当先行”。关键新材料是未来高新技术产业发展的基石和先导。本文从关键新材料创新突破的演进规律、技术创新、商业化应用、战略与政策等四个方面梳理了近年来关键新材料创新突破的研究进展。研究表明,产业升级不断对关键新材料创新突破提出新的要求和挑战,而关键新材料的创新突破也会进一步推动产业升级。为此,世界各国都根据本国新材料发展情况纷纷制定关键新材料创新突破战略和政策,争夺科技制高点。然而,关键新材料具有“高技术不确定性”和“高市场不确定性”,这决定了关键新材料创新突破面临“技术创新”和“商业化应用”两大难题。未来需要加强智能制造技术经济范式变革和重点领域智能转型对关键新材料创新突破的影响、关键新材料技术创新突破的实现路径、不同类别关键新材料商业化应用模式的创新以及战略与政策的精准设计等方面的研究。
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Characterizing the asymptomatic spread of SARS-CoV-2 is important for understanding the COVID-19 pandemic. This study was aimed at determining asymptomatic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a suburban, Southern U.S. population during a period of state restrictions and physical distancing mandates. This is one of the first published seroprevalence studies from North Carolina and included multicenter, primary care, and emergency care facilities serving a low-density, suburban and rural population since description of the North Carolina state index case introducing the SARS-CoV-2 respiratory pathogen to this population. To estimate point seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic individuals over time, two cohort studies were examined. The first cohort study, named ScreenNC, was comprised of outpatient clinics, and the second cohort study, named ScreenNC2, was comprised of inpatients unrelated to COVID-19. Asymptomatic infection by SARS-CoV-2 (with no clinical symptoms) was examined using an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA)-approved antibody test (Abbott) for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG. This assay as performed under CLIA had a reported specificity/sensitivity of 100%/99.6%. ScreenNC identified 24 out of 2,973 (0.8%) positive individuals among asymptomatic participants accessing health care during 28 April to 19 June 2020, which was increasing over time. A separate cohort, ScreenNC2, sampled from 3 March to 4 June 2020, identified 10 out of 1,449 (0.7%) positive participants.IMPORTANCE This study suggests limited but accelerating asymptomatic spread of SARS-CoV-2. Asymptomatic infections, like symptomatic infections, disproportionately affected vulnerable communities in this population, and seroprevalence was higher in African American participants than in White participants. The low, overall prevalence may reflect the success of shelter-in-place mandates at the time this study was performed and of maintaining effective physical distancing practices among suburban populations. Under these public health measures and aggressive case finding, outbreak clusters did not spread into the general population.
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8~50×108 t标准煤;钢铁需求拐点将在"十三五"时期出现,峰值为8×108 t左右;铜需求拐点将在"十三五"时期出现,峰值为900×104 t左右;铝需求拐点将在"十二五"时期出现,峰值为1 600×104~1 700×104 t左右。]]>
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As the world's largest CO(2) emitter and steel producer, China has set the ambitious goal of establishing a circular economy which aims at reconciling economic development with environmental protection and sustainable resource use. This work applies dynamic material flow analysis to forecast production, recycling, and iron ore consumption in the Chinese steel cycle until 2100 by using steel services in terms of in-use stock per capita as driver of future development. The whole cycle is modeled to determine possible responses of the steel industry in light of the circular economy concept. If per-capita stock saturates at 8-12 tons as evidence from industrialized countries suggests, consumption may peak between 2015 and 2020, whereupon it is likely to drop by up to 40% until 2050. A slower growing in-use stock could mitigate this peak and hence reduce overcapacity in primary production. Old scrap supply will increase substantially and it could replace up to 80% of iron ore as resource for steel making by 2050. This would require advanced recycling technologies as manufacturers of machinery and transportation equipment would have to shift to secondary steel as well as new capacities in secondary production which could, however, make redundant already existing integrated steel plants.
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镁被誉为“21世纪最具开发和应用潜力的绿色工程材料”,是重要的战略性金属材料。本文运用部门分析预测法,对中国、北美、欧洲、日本等全球主要国家和地区原镁消费历史和未来原镁需求进行了系统分析和预测,结果表明：未来15年全球原镁消费将持续增长,2020年、2030年需求量将分别达到234万t和303万t ;较目前增加1.87倍和2.72倍;亚太地区将成为全球原镁需求的主要地区,2020年和2030年其需求全球占比将分别达到58.38%和68.97%;中国将成为未来全球原镁需求的拉动者,2013-2030年全球原镁需求增量的78.50%将来自中国。以全球需求为基础,结合全球一次和二次资源供应现状及未来趋势,针对国内产能严重过剩的问题,提出2020年和2030年,中国原镁合理产能分别为107~130万t和203~247万t。建议国家应提高行业准入标准,淘汰落后产能,提高行业集中度;同时加大研发力度,提高中国原镁生产和利用领域的全球竞争力。
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Wind energy is key to addressing the global climate challenge, but its development is subject to potential constraints of finite primary materials. Prior studies on material demand forecasting of wind power development are often limited to a few materials and with low technological resolution, thus hindering a comprehensive understanding of the impact of microengineering parameters on the resource implications of wind energy. In this study, we developed a component-by-component and stock-driven prospective material flow analysis model and used bottom-up data on engineering parameters and wind power capacities to characterize the materials demand and secondary supply potentials of wind energy development in Denmark, a pioneering and leading country in wind power. We also explicitly addressed the uncertainties in the prospective modeling by the means of statistical estimation and sensitivity analysis methods. Our results reveal increasing challenges of materials provision and end-of-life (EoL) management in Denmark's ambitious transition toward 100% renewable energy in the next decades. Harnessing potential secondary resource supply from EoL and extending lifetime could curtail the primary material demand, but they could not fully alleviate the material supply risk. Such a model framework that considers bottom-up engineering parameters with increased precision could be applied to other emerging technologies and help reveal synergies and trade-offs of relevant resource, energy, and climate strategies in the future renewable energy and climate transition.
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The future availability of rare earth elements (REEs) is of concern due to monopolistic supply conditions, environmentally unsustainable mining practices, and rapid demand growth. We present an evaluation of potential future demand scenarios for REEs with a focus on the issue of comining. Many assumptions were made to simplify the analysis, but the scenarios identify some key variables that could affect future rare earth markets and market behavior. Increased use of wind energy and electric vehicles are key elements of a more sustainable future. However, since present technologies for electric vehicles and wind turbines rely heavily on dysprosium (Dy) and neodymium (Nd), in rare-earth magnets, future adoption of these technologies may result in large and disproportionate increases in the demand for these two elements. For this study, upper and lower bound usage projections for REE in these applications were developed to evaluate the state of future REE supply availability. In the absence of efficient reuse and recycling or the development of technologies which use lower amounts of Dy and Nd, following a path consistent with stabilization of atmospheric CO(2) at 450 ppm may lead to an increase of more than 700% and 2600% for Nd and Dy, respectively, over the next 25 years if the present REE needs in automotive and wind applications are representative of future needs.
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Dysprosium, one of the various rare earth elements, is currently for more than 99% mined in China. As China is reducing its exports, new mining projects outside of China are needed to sustain supply and meet future demands. Dysprosium is mainly used in permanent magnets to retain the magnet's strength at elevated temperatures. Therefore, the use of dysprosium doped permanent magnets is preferred in electric vehicles and direct-drive wind turbines. Based on four scenarios it could be shown that dysprosium demand will probably outstrip supply in the short term (up to 2020). Although new mines are being developed, it takes several years for them to become productive. For the long term it is expected that enough dysprosium oxide is available in the earth crust (which is economically feasible to mine with current dysprosium prices) to fulfil the projected demand of dysprosium up to 2050. Recycling of dysprosium can further secure dysprosium supply in the long term by reducing primary dysprosium use by 35% in 2050. Electric vehicles are likely to play a dominant role in future increases in dysprosium demand. Even with the limited market share in 2011, electric vehicles already contribute to 20% of dysprosium use. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd.
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We obtained a complete mitochondrial genome of a skipper butterfly Achalarus lyciades (Hesperiidae, Eudaminae) from next generation sequencing reads. The 15,612 bp mitogenome covers 13 protein-coding genes (PCGs), 22 transfer RNA genes (tRNAs), 2 ribosomal RNA genes (rRNAs), and an A+T rich region. Its gene order is typical for mitogenomes of Lepidoptera. Phylogenetic analysis placed A. lyciades as a sister to Lobocla bifasciatus, the only other Eudaminae with available mitogenome.
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Decarbonization of electricity generation can support climate-change mitigation and presents an opportunity to address pollution resulting from fossil-fuel combustion. Generally, renewable technologies require higher initial investments in infrastructure than fossil-based power systems. To assess the tradeoffs of increased up-front emissions and reduced operational emissions, we present, to our knowledge, the first global, integrated life-cycle assessment (LCA) of long-term, wide-scale implementation of electricity generation from renewable sources (i.e., photovoltaic and solar thermal, wind, and hydropower) and of carbon dioxide capture and storage for fossil power generation. We compare emissions causing particulate matter exposure, freshwater ecotoxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and climate change for the climate-change-mitigation (BLUE Map) and business-as-usual (Baseline) scenarios of the International Energy Agency up to 2050. We use a vintage stock model to conduct an LCA of newly installed capacity year-by-year for each region, thus accounting for changes in the energy mix used to manufacture future power plants. Under the Baseline scenario, emissions of air and water pollutants more than double whereas the low-carbon technologies introduced in the BLUE Map scenario allow a doubling of electricity supply while stabilizing or even reducing pollution. Material requirements per unit generation for low-carbon technologies can be higher than for conventional fossil generation: 11-40 times more copper for photovoltaic systems and 6-14 times more iron for wind power plants. However, only two years of current global copper and one year of iron production will suffice to build a low-carbon energy system capable of supplying the world's electricity needs in 2050.
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We present a dynamic model of global copper stocks and flows which allows a detailed analysis of recycling efficiencies, copper stocks in use, and dissipated and landfilled copper. The model is based on historical mining and refined copper production data (1910-2010) enhanced by a unique data set of recent global semifinished goods production and copper end-use sectors provided by the copper industry. To enable the consistency of the simulated copper life cycle in terms of a closed mass balance, particularly the matching of recycled metal flows to reported historical annual production data, a method was developed to estimate the yearly global collection rates of end-of-life (postconsumer) scrap. Based on this method, we provide estimates of 8 different recycling indicators over time. The main indicator for the efficiency of global copper recycling from end-of-life (EoL) scrap--the EoL recycling rate--was estimated to be 45% on average, +/- 5% (one standard deviation) due to uncertainty and variability over time in the period 2000-2010. As uncertainties of specific input data--mainly concerning assumptions on end-use lifetimes and their distribution--are high, a sensitivity analysis with regard to the effect of uncertainties in the input data on the calculated recycling indicators was performed. The sensitivity analysis included a stochastic (Monte Carlo) uncertainty evaluation with 10(5) simulation runs.
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Stocks of products in use are the pivotal engines that drive anthropogenic metal cycles: They support the lives of people by providing services to them; they are sources for future secondary resources (scrap); and demand for in-use stocks generates demand for metals. Despite their great importance and their impacts on other parts of the metal cycles and the environment, the study of in-use stocks has heretofore been widely neglected. Here we investigate anthropogenic and geogenic iron stocks in the United States (U.S.) by analyzing the iron cycle over the period 1900-2004. Our results show the following. (i) Over the last century, the U.S. iron stock in use increased to 3,200 Tg (million metric tons), which is the same order of magnitude as the remaining U.S. iron stock in identified ores. On a global scale, anthropogenic iron stocks are less significant compared with natural ores, but their relative importance is increasing. (ii) With a perfect recycling system, the U.S. could substitute scrap utilization for domestic mining. (iii) The per-capita in-use iron stock reached saturation at 11-12 metric tons in approximately 1980. This last finding, if applicable to other economies as well, could allow a significant improvement of long-term forecasting of steel demand and scrap availability in emerging market economies and therefore has major implications for resource sustainability, recycling technology, and industrial and governmental policy.
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The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.
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The dependency on critical resources like Rare Earth Elements (REEs) has been pronounced as a potential barrier to a wider implementation of emerging renewable energy technologies. This study explores the dependency of such technologies especially wind turbines and electric vehicles along with other background end-uses on two key REEs, i.e. neodymium (Nd) and dysprosium (Dy). Our study reveals that a Business As Usual Development (BAUD) projected primary supply is unable to meet the forecasted demand of Nd and Dy in all the four modelled demand scenarios by 2050. This means that a highly accelerated rate of Nd and Dy mining is unavoidable in order to keep up with the pace of increasing demand from new technologies required in a renewable energy strategy for meeting the climate change challenge. Recycling does not seem to be in a position to close the wide gap between future demand and supply by 2050 mainly due to the long lifetime of key end-use products. However, in the long term, i.e. by 2100, secondary supply from recycling can meet almost 50% of the demand. Moreover, recycling, is found to play major role in reducing the geopolitical aspects of supply risk due to diversification of geographical distribution of supply by 2100. The study suggests that China is very likely to play its dominant role for Dy primary supply in the short-to-medium term future, as 72% of the geological reserves of Dy are in China. Our study indicates that considering the historically proven developments in metal reserve estimates as being analogous for REEs, geological reserves of Nd and Dy will not deplete for many hundred years ahead. Opening of new mines at an accelerated pace remains a supply bottleneck issue in the short-to-medium term future until recycling provides significant secondary supply to reduce the future demand. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
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Vibrational spectroscopies (Fourier Transform Infra Red, FTIR, and Raman) are exceptionally valuable tools for the identification and crystal-chemical study of fibrous minerals, and asbestos amphiboles in particular. Raman spectroscopy has been widely applied in toxicological studies and thus a large corpus of reference data on regulated species is found in the literature. However, FTIR spectroscopy has been mostly used in crystal-chemical studies and very few data are found on asbestos amphiboles. This paper is intended to fill this gap. We report new FTIR data collected on a suite of well-characterized samples of the five regulated amphibole species: anthophyllite, amosite, and crocidolite, provided by the Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) Organization, and tremolite and actinolite, from two well-known occurrences. The data from these reference samples have been augmented by results from additional specimens to clarify some aspects of their spectroscopic features. We show that the FTIR spectra in both the OH-stretching region and in the lattice modes region can be effective for rapid identification of the asbestos type.
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Vibrational spectroscopies (Fourier Transform Infra Red, FTIR, and Raman) are exceptionally valuable tools for the identification and crystal-chemical study of fibrous minerals, and asbestos amphiboles in particular. Raman spectroscopy has been widely applied in toxicological studies and thus a large corpus of reference data on regulated species is found in the literature. However, FTIR spectroscopy has been mostly used in crystal-chemical studies and very few data are found on asbestos amphiboles. This paper is intended to fill this gap. We report new FTIR data collected on a suite of well-characterized samples of the five regulated amphibole species: anthophyllite, amosite, and crocidolite, provided by the Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) Organization, and tremolite and actinolite, from two well-known occurrences. The data from these reference samples have been augmented by results from additional specimens to clarify some aspects of their spectroscopic features. We show that the FTIR spectra in both the OH-stretching region and in the lattice modes region can be effective for rapid identification of the asbestos type.
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This study presents the technological S-curves that integrates the Bibliometric and patent analysis into the Logistic growth curve model for hydrogen energy and fuel cell technologies and identifies the optimal patent strategy for the fuel cell industry, including PEMFC, SOFC, and DMFC/DAFC. Empirical analysis is via an expert survey and Co-word analysis using the United States Patent and Trademark Office database to obtain useful data. Analytical results demonstrate that the S-curves is a highly effective means of quantifying how technology forecasting of cumulative publication patent number. Analytical results also indicate that technologies for generating and storing hydrogen have not yet reached technological maturity; thus, additional R&D funding is needed to accelerate the development of hydrogen technology. Conversely, fuel cell technologies have reached technological maturity, and related patent strategies include freedom to operate, licensing, and niche inventions. The proposed model can be applied to all high-technology cases, and particularly to new clean technologies. The study concludes by outlining the limitations of the proposed model and directions for further research. Copyright (C) 2011, Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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This paper studies patenting dynamics in efficiency improving electricity generation technologies as an important indicator of innovation activity. We build a novel database of worldwide patent applications in efficiency-improving fossil fuel technologies for electricity generation and then analyse patenting trends over time and across countries. We find that patenting has mostly been stable over time, with a recent decreasing trend. OECD countries represent the top innovators and the top markets for technology. Some non-OECD countries, and particularly China, are also very active in terms of patenting activity in this sector. The majority of patents are first filed in OECD countries and only then in BRIC and other non-OECD countries. BRIC and other non-OECD countries apply for patents that are mostly marketed domestically, but BRIC countries represent important markets for patent duplication of OECD inventions. These results are indicative of significant technology transfer in the field of efficiency-improving technologies for electricity production. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd.
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