意愿调查法中的偏好不确定性研究综述

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苏红岩, 王华^,中国人民大学环境学院,北京 100872

A review of preference uncertainty in contingent valuation method

SU Hongyan, WANG Hua^,School of Environment & Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China

通讯作者: 王华,男,北京人,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为环境与自然资源经济价值评估、环境管理与政策。E-mail: huawangbeijing@qq.com

收稿日期:2018-04-24修回日期:2019-10-10网络出版日期:2019-12-25

基金资助:

国家重点研发计划项目.2018YFC0213700

Received:2018-04-24Revised:2019-10-10Online:2019-12-25
作者简介 About authors
苏红岩,女,山东济南人,博士生,主要研究方向为环境与自然资源经济价值评估E-mail:2017000363@ruc.edu.cn。

摘要
对非市场物品和服务,如环境改善和资源保护,进行经济价值评估是学术界面临的一大难题。意愿调查法（Contingent Valuation Method, CVM）作为非市场物品经济价值评估的一种重要方法,其方法论在不断地接受检验并得到改进,近年来一个重要进展是其分析框架由确定偏好假设向不确定偏好假设转变。为系统认识国际上对CVM中受访者偏好不确定性的研究进展、推动国内相关研究,本文在简单介绍产生不确定结果的原因和不确定偏好假设下标准CVM不足的基础上,系统梳理了不确定偏好的测度方法和不确定偏好下价值计算方法,分析了各种方法的优劣以及考虑不确定性对价值估计值大小和估计效率的影响。总体来看,不确定偏好假设已基本形成共识,个人支付意愿应为随机变量也得到广泛支持。多数****认为借助一定的测度技术获取的不确定性信息是有价值的,而如何更准确地测度和利用偏好不确定程度以提高资源环境等非市场物品价值估计效率应是今后研究的重点。最后,针对既有研究存在的问题,从加强个人偏好及不确定性的异质性研究、改进问卷设计等方面提出对未来研究工作的建议。
关键词： 意愿调查法;不确定偏好;随机价值;不确定性测度;WTP计算;综述

Abstract

Economic valuation of non-market goods and services, such as improvement of environmental quality and conservation of natural resources, is a methodologically strong challenge to economists. As a primary method of economic valuation of non-market goods, the contingent valuation method, CVM, has been continuously tested and improved. One of the improvements is the change of assumption from certain preferences to uncertain preferences. This article first summarizes the reasons of uncertain preferences and potential problems caused by ignoring the uncertainty nature of preferences in contingent valuation studies. In order to have a better understanding about the issues, this article also provides a systematic review of the measurement techniques of uncertain preferences and willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimation models where the respondents’ uncertain information is incorporated. Both advantages and disadvantages of different methods are summarized. Also analyzed are the impacts of incorporating uncertain preferences on the magnitude of the estimates as well as the estimation efficiency. In general, there is a consensus among researchers on the uncertainty characteristic of respondents’ preferences. The opinion that individuals’ WTP should be a random variable with a specific distribution is generally accepted. Most of the researchers believe that information about uncertainty obtained through specific techniques is valuable for calibrating WTP estimates and more attention should be paid to the accuracy of uncertainty estimation to improve the efficiency of WTP estimation. Suggestions about future research, such as studying on heterogeneity of individuals’ uncertain preferences and improving the survey design and implementation, are provided at the end of the article.

Keywords：contingent valuation method;uncertain preferences;random valuation;uncertainty measurement;willingness-to-pay estimation;review

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本文引用格式
苏红岩, 王华. 意愿调查法中的偏好不确定性研究综述. 资源科学[J], 2019, 41(12): 2327-2341 doi:10.18402/resci.2019.12.16
SU Hongyan. A review of preference uncertainty in contingent valuation method. RESOURCES SCIENCE[J], 2019, 41(12): 2327-2341 doi:10.18402/resci.2019.12.16

1 引言

随着相关学科对人类认知能力、不确定性和风险等方面的研究,非市场物品经济价值评估方法经历了由确定偏好假设向不确定偏好假设的转变。意愿调查法（Contingent Valuation Method, CVM）又称条件价值评估法,是以问卷调查为基础推测人们对物品或服务一定程度改善的支付意愿（Willingness-to-Pay, WTP）或一定程度恶化的受偿意愿（Willingness-to-Accept, WTA）。CVM在经济学、市场营销学、社会学、环境科学等各研究领域都有广泛应用,尤其是自然资源选择价值、遗产价值、存在价值等非市场价值评估中最重要且应用最广泛的方法^[1,2,3,4]。但是由于自然资源非市场价值评估本身的复杂性,CVM在应用中也存在着被调查者不能完全读懂并理解调查问题^[2],导致假想偏差、起点偏差等各种偏差^[5],而这些问题的存在会引起受访者偏好的不确定性。

在CVM发展之初,遵循新古典经济学完全信息和确定性偏好的假设^[6],其实施的前提是受访者能够通过最大化自身效用函数作出最优决策。Hanemann等^[7]对个人准确知道其效用函数的假设提出质疑,认为个人并不一定了解自身真实支付意愿a,只是大概知道a的一个区间。建立在Hanemann研究框架的基础上,Li等^[8]认为由于个人并不清楚自己的真实支付意愿值,这将导致调查过程中的一些错误反应,进而影响研究者对受访者价值函数的准确判断;其研究中模型总误差被分为两部分：一部分是由于研究者建模时遗漏变量所致;另一部分则源于受访者偏好的不确定性。Ready等^[9]对不确定偏好进行了界定,认为当偏好不确定时受访者对自己是否要真实支付的结果是不清楚的,而对这些结果的概率可能知道也可能不知道。自此,不确定偏好成为CVM研究中的一个主题。但是,在不确定偏好研究框架下,多数****仍遵循了确定偏好框架下个人WTP为唯一值的假设。而Wang^[10,11]提出随机价值理论（Random Valuation Theory, RVT）,解释了偏好不确定性及存在不确定性时受访者在意愿调查中的可能反应。不同于唯一值的传统假设,该理论认为每个人都有一个随机价值分布,而人与人之间的价值分布函数不同。近几年,随机价值理论和个人价值分布的概念得到了越来越多****的认同^[12,13,14]。

虽然CVM也被国内****应用于中国的资源环境经济价值评估^[1-5,15-18],但只有个别国内****关注了CVM中受访者的不确定偏好,且多强调由问卷设计、实施问题引发的不确定性^[5,18],而这种不确定性可以通过改进问卷设计、加强对受访者的指导而削弱或避免^[19]。国际上****则更多强调受访者自身主观因素导致的不确定,甚至认为偏好本身就是不确定的。此外,国内****对不确定偏好的测度方法单一,多是直接询问受访者对其自身价值反应的确定程度,且忽略了对不确定偏好下WTP计量模型的改进。

至今,国际上对不确定偏好假设下,以CVM为主的非市场物品经济价值评估方法的研究已有二十多年的历史,偏好不确定性基本成为****的共识。虽然****多是基于个别案例展开讨论,采用了不同的不确定偏好的测度方法和价值修正模型,对于哪种更适用于决策还充满争议^[20],但是已有的研究仍然为不确定偏好下提高非市场物品经济价值评估效率作出了重要贡献,同时为后续研究提供了方向。基于此,本文试图从产生不确定偏好的原因及标准CVM分析法的不足出发,系统总结不确定偏好下CVM研究进展,重点说明不确定偏好测度方法、WTP修正模型并总结各种方法的优劣。此外,本文还分析了考虑不确定性对WTP估计的影响。

2 不确定偏好原因及标准CVM的不足

CVM调查中受访者偏好的不确定既包括对假想市场中产品（服务）改变量的不确定,也包括将这种改变量货币化过程中的不确定^[21],而引起不确定性的原因很多,主要包括以下几个方面：①CVM假想市场的本质。在假想市场中受访者不能进行真实交易^[22],对待评估物品（服务）本身及其替代品和互补品等方面存在不确定性^[10];②问卷设计和调查因素,如问卷描述的政策工具不可信^[22],受访者缺少相关经验^[22,23,24],认为待评估物品（服务）与货币不可比或存在字典偏好（Lexicographic Preferences）^[25,26,27],没有足够的时间识别真实偏好等^[28];③受访者个人社会经济特征因素,如未来收入的不确定、环保态度等;④偏好本身的不确定性^[10]。由于以上不确定性因素的存在,不确定偏好不仅发生在非市场物品如环境产品价值评估中,即使是熟悉的市场商品,个人对其价值评价也可能是不确定的^[24,29,30]。

偏好不确定时,如果仍采用确定偏好假设下的价值诱导技术和计量模型,则可能导致估计结果的偏差。假设个人WTP分布如图1,根据标准开放式诱导方式,意味着受访者会确定的给出E（V）作为其支付意愿;根据标准离散选择（Dichotomous Choice, DC）方式,则认为对于给定的投标值t,如果t<E（V）,受访者肯定会支付,而如果t>E（V）,受访者肯定不支付。实际上,根据认知理论、行为经济学中相关理论,当受访者偏好不确定时,对于小于E（V）的投标值（如S1<t<E（V））,其也有一定的概率不支付;而对于大于E（V）的投标值（如E（V）<t<S2）,其也有一定的概率支付。因此,忽略不确定性的标准价值诱导方式和WTP计算方法可能导致估计结果有偏^[31,32],且不确定性越大,偏差越大。

图1

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图1受访者个人的WTP分布函数和CVM投标值

注：资料来自参考文献[10]。V表示受访者的WTP;E（V）为WTP期望值;f（V）表示受访者在给定投标值t上支付的不确定程度;S1和S2分别表示随着t由低到高,受访者的回答由“是”转变为“不确定”并继续转变为“否”的临界点;“YES”、“DK”和“NO”分别表示受访者对给定t的回答为“是”、“不确定”和“否”,分别对应3个区间：区间I[L, S1],区间II[S1, S2],区间III[S2, U];L,U分别表示受访者WTP的最低值和最高值。
Figure 1Willingness-to-pay distribution function and contingent valuation method (CVM) bids

3 不确定偏好测度

关于意愿调查中受访者偏好不确定性的测度方法主要有以下几种：①在标准DC价值诱导方式中增加一个“不确定/不知道”的选项;②在价值问题后增加一个询问受访者对其自身回答确定程度的问题;③直接将确定性水平测度嵌入价值评价问题之中。这些方法几乎是在同一时期出现,对传统非市场物品价值评估方法有显著改进,但仍有进一步改进的余地。

3.1 标准DC加“不确定/不知道”选项

早在1993年,美国国家海洋与大气管理局（NOAA）专家组制定的CVM指导手册就提出在标准DC诱导方式中除“是”和“否”的选项外还应该允许受访者对给定的价格给出中间反应,如“不知道”“不确定”^[33]。Wang^[10]提出的随机价值理论从理论层面解释了不确定偏好下受访者将如何回答意愿调查中的问题及提供中间选项的必要性。之后,该类不确定性测度方法及对中间反应的处理成为非市场物品价值评估领域****研究的重要内容之一^{[34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42]}。

有****认为这种不确定偏好的测度方法给受访者提供了不努力思考的机会,可能导致CVM数据质量下降及可用信息的减少^[37,43,44]。但是,根据Wang的随机价值理论及其他****的实证研究,至少部分受访者给出的中间反应揭示了其真实的偏好不确定性^[10,11,42],而不提供这个中间选项将导致问卷拒绝率上升,真正不确定者也只能随机给出“是/否”的回答或使用决策启发式,导致CVM调查数据和估计结果对非市场物品质量改变程度缺乏敏感性^[37]。

3.2 标准DC加NCS/PC问题

除增加中间选项的方法外,有****提出在标准价值评估问题后设置询问受访者实际支付可能性的后续问题以量化其确定程度。根据可能性的表达方式又细分为数值量化法（Numerical Certainty Scale,NCS）和文字表达的多分类方法（Polychotomous Choice,PC）。NCS方法一般是要求受访者用1~10（1=非常不确定;10=非常确定）或0%~100%（0%=非常不确定;100%=非常确定）的数字表示其实际接受（或拒绝）某个价格的可能性。该方法最初由Li等^[8]提出并应用于瑞典北部森林资源的价值评估,之后,NCS方法被****广泛应用于其他案例研究^{[42,45-50,51,52]}。Ready等^[9]首先应用PC方法测度CVM调查中受访者偏好的确定性,其研究把确定性水平分为6类,分别为“肯定是”“可能是”“或许是”“或许否”“可能否”“肯定否”。之后,PC方法也被应用于其他考虑不确定偏好的价值评估案例,但确定性水平的分类有所差异^{[53,54,55,56,57,58,59]}。近几年,也有****将标准DC选项中加入中间反应的不确定性测度方法和PC方法相结合^[60]。

NCS或PC方法有效的前提是受访者能够准确描述其实际接受（或拒绝）某个价格的可能性并且所有受访者对问卷中提供的不确定性量度有相同的理解^[61],这些严格的假设遭到很多****的质疑^{[13,24,44,62,63]}。另有****提出PC方法不利于激励受访者认真思考其真实偏好^[38],而且不论是NCS还是PC方法都可能导致与不确定偏好无关的异质性^[43]。另一方面,NCS方法的支持者则认为受访者能够相对准确地描述其偏好确定水平^[58,64],而且将支付概率引入不确定偏好的研究会使CVM估计结果更有意义^[63];对于PC方法,Saris等^[65]认为在确定性类别描述中2个固定位置的参照点能够使受访者以相似的主观概率反映其确定程度,且基于既有研究,受访者对这些主观概率的理解至少可以限定在某个相对较小的区间内。

3.3 多边界离散选择和随机支付卡

另一种近年来较为常用的获取CVM调查中受访者偏好确定程度的方法是直接将确定性水平嵌入价值评价问题之中,即多边界离散选择（Multiple Bounded Discrete Choice, MBDC）方式。该方法最初由Welsh等^[66]提出,其实质是支付卡价值诱导技术和PC不确定性测度技术的结合。MBDC方法通过一个支付矩阵从2个维度对传统的单边界离散选择方式进行了扩展：纵向由单个投标值扩展为一系列投标值,横向则由确定的“是/否”扩展为多个确定性水平^[67]。此外,Wang^[10]提出了随机支付卡（Stochastic Payment Card, SPC）的诱导技术,SPC类似于MBDC但能同时获取受访者在各投标值上定性和定量的不确定性（表1）。之后,这类嵌入式价值和确定程度的诱导方式被广泛应用于不确定偏好下非市场物品价值评估的案例研究^{[12-14,20,38,68-74]}。

Table 1
表1
表1随机支付卡方式
Table 1Stochastic payment card format

每月成本（$）	肯定支付	可能支付						不确定	可能不支付							肯定不支付
每月成本（$）	肯定支付	A		B		C	D	不确定	A		B		C		D	肯定不支付
0	1.0	0.9	0.8		0.7		0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3		0.2		0.1		0
2	1.0	0.9	0.8		0.7		0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3		0.2		0.1		0
4	1.0	0.9	0.8		0.7		0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3		0.2		0.1		0
6	1.0	0.9	0.8		0.7		0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3		0.2		0.1		0
8	1.0	0.9	0.8		0.7		0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3		0.2		0.1		0
10	1.0	0.9	0.8		0.7		0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3		0.2		0.1		0
12	1.0	0.9	0.8		0.7		0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3		0.2		0.1		0
…	…	…	…		…		…	…	…	…		…		…		…
100	1.0	0.9	0.8		0.7		0.6	0.5	0.4	0.3		0.2		0.1		0

注：资料来自参考文献[11]。

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对于PC方法的争议同样也存在于MBDC方法,且MBDC投标值范围的设计也可能影响到福利估计^[75];该诱导方式下受访者面临较大的认知压力^[76],且可能激励偏好相对确定者将其WTP表示为一个区间而非唯一值^[24,77]。投标值及确定性水平的排序效应也可能是造成估计结果偏差的来源之一^[78]。此外,此种诱导方式的运用应注意识别受访者“不确定”背后的行为动机,区分真正的偏好不确定、无支付意愿和抗议性支付^[74]。

但是,相对于其他方法,MBDC和SPC诱导技术能同时获取更多的偏好及不确定性信息,降低调查成本。MBDC/SPC诱导方式获取的受访者在各投标值上支付可能性数据能使WTP区间的估计精确化甚至能求出个人的WTP分布^[71]。也有****对MBDC诱导技术的设计提出改进建议,如Johnson 等^[79]认为当有2个固定的参照点和至少5个确定性水平时,能提高受访者主观支付概率之间的可比性;Boman^[63]则提出在MBDC矩阵后让每个受访者对这些文字描述的确定性水平给出自己的赋值。为减轻受访者的认知压力,在问卷中同时提供与确定性水平类别描述相对应的数字概率,即采用SPC的诱导方式则是一种更优的选择,且SPC已被应用于多个实证研究^{[11,69,70,73]}。对于MBDC的其他设计效应及“错误诱导”问题也可以通过恰当的CVM设计、实施而减缓或避免^[63,75]。

除以上较为常用的方法外,****也提出了其他不确定偏好的诱导技术,如双向支付阶梯（Two-way Payment Ladder, TWPL）^[24,80-82]、区间式开放式（Classic-interval Open-ended, CIOE）^[83,84]、调整的支付卡式^[28,85]。

总体来说,****对各种不确定偏好的测度方法孰优孰劣尚未统一意见,但是考虑到不确定偏好下WTP的随机性,MBDC或SPC诱导技术的应用及改进应该成为未来CVM领域的研究重点之一。

4 唯一值假设下WTP计算

一直以来,在不确定偏好研究框架下,多数****在求解WTP时仍延用了确定偏好框架下个人WTP为唯一值的假设,甚至认为这种“不确定性”主要来自研究者的建模误差;即使有****认识到了偏好本身的“不确定性”,一般也是通过一定的方法将“不确定”反应转化为“确定”反应进而利用确定偏好假设下的计量模型求解该唯一WTP值。因此,唯一值假设下各研究中WTP的计算方法,尤其是基于标准DC加中间反应或NCS/PC数据的案例,其主要差异在于对中间反应或NCS/PC不确定性信息的处理。

4.1 基于DC加中间反应的数据

在唯一值假设下,既有研究应用了不同方法处理受访者“不确定/不知道”的中间反应。有研究直接将这些中间反应视为“否”^[34,39,86]或部分为“否”、部分为“是”^[40],也有研究认为“不确定”的反应和“是”或“否”都没有显著差异^[35];另有研究认为真正的不确定性应该区别对待^[36,41,87]。值得一提的是,Caudill等^[41]基于Wang提出的4类“不确定”反应^① (①Wang^[10]将CVM调查中受访者偏好不确定的来源分为4类,包括两类因不努力思考或其他原因导致的非真实不确定性和两类在调查时点上确实不能识别自己偏好的真实不确定性。其随机价值模型是建立在真实不确定偏好的基础上。)建立了一个潜类选择logit模型（Latent-choice Logit Model,LCLM）,依据该模型将不确定的观察值重新归类,识别哪些本应属于确定的“是/否”、哪些是真实的不确定。但是,该研究识别出的真实“不确定”的观察值最终仍被作为缺失值或“否”处理。在将中间反应转化后,标准二值logit或probit模型常被用于求解总体WTP均值。

直接将中间反应视为“否”,所得WTP估计值仅仅是真实值的一个保守估计;将中间反应作为缺失值,不仅造成可用样本量的下降,还可能产生样本选择性偏差^[87]。Caudill等^[41]的LCLM模型考虑到了部分“非真实”不确定的可能,但是其对所识别的“真实”中间反应的处理仍未摆脱其他方法的不足。

4.2 基于DC加NCS/PC数据

在利用NCS偏好不确定性信息时,****最常用的方法是首先界定一个确定性水平的临界点,根据该临界点重新定义受访者对给定投标值的反应,这种修正可以只用于“是”或“否”的观察值^② (②如将确定性水平在临界点以下的“是”的回答重新定义为“否”或缺失值。),也可以对“是”“否”的观察值均进行修正。之后即可用标准DC计量模型计算WTP。该方法主观性较强,临界点的确定较为随意,差异较大（表2）。其他较为常用的处理NCS信息的方法有加权似然函数模型（Weighted Likelihood Function Model, WLFM）、非对称模型（Asymmetric Uncertainty Models, ASUM）和对称模型（Symmetric Uncertainty Models, SUM）。

Table 2
表2
表2NCS方法中临界点的界定
Table 2Threshold definition with the numerical certainty scale (NCS) method

临界点	作者
5	Martínez-Espi?eira等^[52]
6	Wang等^[32]
7	Ethier 等^[49];Poe等^[50];Vossler等^[40]
8	Champ等^[45];Champ等^[47];Poe等^[50];Samnaliev等^[42]
9	Loureiro等^[51]
10	Champ等^[45];Ekstrand等^[88];Samnaliev等^[42];Blomquist等^[89]

注：该表总结的文献中,不确定程度均用1~10的数字表示。Poe等^[50]的研究表明,临界点为7是最优的,但是结果与临界点为8时差异不大。

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WLFM模型由Li等^[8]建立并应用。Li等首先根据确定程度（用0%~100%表示）重新定义受访者对价值问题的反应,如一个确定性水平为40%的“是（否）”将被定义为确定性水平为60%的“否（是）”。在此基础上,偏好确定性水平作为权重（w）进入似然函数对重新定义后的受访者的回答进行加权（式（1））。

（1）

\begin{array}{l} \log L = \\ \overset{n}{\sum_{i = 1}} w_{i} \{I_{i} \ln (1 - Φ_{wtp} (\frac{t_{i} - μ_{i}}{σ})) + (1 - I_{i}) \ln (Φ_{wtp} (\frac{t_{i} - μ_{i}}{σ}))\} \end{array}

式中：L表示似然函数值;I为指示变量,对于给定的投标值t,如果受访者i同意支付,则I=1,否则,I=0;μ和σ分别为WTP的期望和标准差;w表示由偏好确定性水平表示的权重;n为受访者个数;Φ表示标准正态分布的累积概率密度函数;

t_{i}

表示第i个受访者面对的投标值为t。

ASUM模型与SUM模型相比,只重新定义接受投标值的受访者回答“是”的概率,定义方法是将这些观察值赋值为1并用确定性水平进行加权;而拒绝投标值的受访者则被直接赋值为0（式（2））^[61]。而在SUM模型中,接受和拒绝投标值的受访者回答“是”的概率均被依据其确定程度重新定义,定义规则是,100%的拒绝者将被赋值为0,100%的接受者被赋值为1;确定性水平为60%的拒绝者则被赋值为0.4（式（3））。

（2）

\{\begin{array}{l} P (yes) = 1 \times w, ? ? ? ? pay = 1 \\ P (yes) = 0, ? ? ? ? ? pay = 0 \end{array} ? ?

（3）

\{\begin{array}{l} P (yes) = 1 \times w, ? ? ? ? pay = 1 \\ P (yes) = 1 \times (1 - w), ? ? ? ? ? pay = 0 \end{array} ? ?

式中：P(yes)表示重新定义后的受访者对给定投标值回答“是”的概率;pay=1、pay=0分别表示受访者接受和拒绝给定投标值。

既有研究在利用PC技术时则更为主观,****不仅对偏好确定水平有不同的分类,对不确定信息也有不同的处理方法（表3）。

Table 3
表3
表3PC方法中确定性类别定义及信息处理
Table 3Certainty category definition and treatment with the polychotomous choice (PC) method

确定性类别数	作者	类别定义	处理方法
2	Blumenschein 等^[55,56]	非常确定,一般确定	把“一般确定”的“是”重新定义为“否”
	Johannesson等^[48]	非常确定,一般确定	同Blumenschein等的处理方法
	Blomquist等^[89]	非常确定,可能确定	把“可能确定”的“是”重新定义为“否”
5	Logar等^[59]	非常相信,相信,中立,不是很相信,不相信	把 “相信”及以下确定水平的“是”均视为缺失值或“否”
6	Ready等^[9]	肯定是,可能是,或许是,或许否,可能否,肯定否	分别把“可能是”和“或许是”确定水平以下的“是”重新定义为“否”

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利用NCS/PC确定性信息调整后的WTP计算模型能够降低假想偏差（Hypothetical Bias）及所谓的“Yea-saying”效应^③ (③CVM调查中的“Yea-saying”现象是指受访者为取悦于调查员,对给定的投标值更倾向于给出“是”的回答。),但是这些信息的加入也可能导致模型拟合优度降低、估计值精度下降^[42]。在DC诱导技术下,基于每个受访者唯一的观察值建立的随机效用模型,如果不改变模型结构就不可能有效利用不确定偏好信息;额外信息的应用也需要较强的理论和实践支撑,但是既有研究对这些信息的应用较为随意;NCS/PC方法中模型内生性问题也会对结果造成威胁^[44,90]。具体来说,对于根据临界点重新定义“是/否”的方法,临界点本身的界定就缺少依据;临界点的选取至少应该有先验知识或根据实际支付数据确定,但是这与多数CVM的应用场景相悖^[52,91,92]。对于ASUM模型,Shaikh等^[22]的研究表明当拒绝投标值的受访者非常确定而接受投标值的受访者不确定时,该模型比较有效,但是更多****对该方法提出了质疑^[52,93]。SUM模型相对于ASUM模型更为合理,但是SUM模型更适用于受访者偏好不确定的原因是投标值接近其最大支付意愿而很难作出决策的情形^[52,88,94]。

4.3 基于MBDC数据

利用MBDC诱导方式所得受访者在系列投标值上支付的可能性数据,****建立了不同的计量模型分析WTP,其中,在WTP为唯一值假设下,较为典型的是Welsh等^[67]的模型。

Welsh等首先定义每个受访者能以一定的确定性水平（如“肯定”“可能”或“不确定”）支付的最高值X_iL,X_iU为MBDC支付矩阵中X_iL的下一个投标值^④ (④假设MBDC矩阵中投标值为升序排列。)。Welsh等建模的一个关键假设是受访者的WTP位于区间

[X_{iL}, X_{iU}]

内,则在正态分布假设下

WT P_{i} ~ N (μ, σ^{2})

,受访者i的WTP位于以上区间内的概率可以表示为

Φ (\frac{X_{iU} - μ}{σ}) - Φ (\frac{X_{iL} - μ}{σ})

。据此,基于n个受访者数据建立对数似然函数如式（4）。如果X_iL为受访者“肯定”支付的最高值,则该模型即Welsh-Poe的DY模型;类似地,可得Welsh-Poe的PY和NS模型。

（4）

\log L = \overset{n}{\sum_{i = 1}} \log [Φ (\frac{X_{iU} - μ}{σ}) - Φ (\frac{X_{iL} - μ}{σ})]

作为较早基于MBDC数据的分析模型,Welsh-Poe的方法没有充分利用受访者偏好确定水平信息,其实质是把MBDC数据转换成了双边界离散选择（Double-bounded Dichotomous Choice, DBDC）诱导技术下的数据^[19,71],尤其是对不确定的反应没有作出充分解释^[19]。此外,Welsh等假设所有受访者的WTP同方差,而在不确定偏好分析框架下,误差项中除研究者的建模误差外还应包括由个人偏好不确定性引起的误差,即总误差项应该是异方差而非同方差^[11]。

5 随机价值假设下WTP计算

随着对不确定偏好认识的逐渐深入,近几年随机价值理论得到了越来越多****的认同。在随机价值假设下,****建立了不同的计量模型求解总体参数甚至是个人的WTP分布。

5.1 基于DC加中间反应的数据

在随机价值理论框架下,Wang^[10]认为当给定的投标值t接近受访者WTP期望值时,受访者将难以确定的给出“是”或“否”的回答（图1）。基于此,Wang建立了随机价值模型（Random Valuation Model, RVM）。首先定义个人WTP分布上2个潜在的临界点S1和S2,则给定投标值t、WTP的期望μ和标准差σ,一个包括了不确定反应的对数似然函数建立如式（5）此外,2个临界点都可以表示为个人特征变量的函数,以充分考虑个体之间偏好及其不确定程度的异质性。

（5）

\begin{array}{l} \log L = \sum {y 1 \times \ln P (yes | (S 1, μ, σ, t)) + y 2 \times \\ \ln P (no | (S 2, μ, σ, t)) + (1 - y 1 - y 2) \times \\ \ln P (DK | (S 1, S 2, μ, σ, t))} \end{array}

式中：y1,y2均为指示变量;yes, no, DK分别表示受访者的回答为“是”“否”“不知道/不确定”,相应地,P（yes|·）、P（no|·）、P（DK|·）分别表示受访者回答“是”“否”“不知道/不确定”的概率。

相对于唯一值假设下中间反应的处理方法,基于随机价值理论的RVM模型将中间反应的观察值直接纳入模型并与“是/否”的观察值区别对待;其对临界点的处理也充分考虑了受访者之间的异质性^[60],这些优点使得该模型被广泛应用于不确定偏好下CVM案例研究。如Champ等^[87]分别用多元logit模型（Multinomial Logit Model, MNL）、RVM模型等对包含“不确定”反应的DC数据进行分析,并证明了对中间反应的观察值区别对待的必要性。

5.2 基于MBDC/SPC数据

在随机价值假设下,****基于MBDC和SPC数据建立了不同的价值分析模型,主要包括Alberini等^[38]扩展的随机价值模型、Evans等^[13]的不确定性决策估计模型、Kobayashi等^[14]的潜类临界值分析法、Wang等^[71]的两步法和一步法。

5.2.1 Alberini等的方法

假设个人的WTP为服从一定分布的随机变量,Alberini等^[38]扩展了Wang的随机价值模型,在对称分布假设下,定义4个临界点（E（V）±a和E（V）±b）将个人的WTP曲线划分为5个区间,分别对应MBDC矩阵中5个确定性水平的范围。具体来说,对于投标值t,如果WTP_i>t+a_i,受访者将选择“肯定支付”;如果t+b_i<WTP_i<t+a_i,受访者将选择“可能支付”;相应的,可以定义“不确定”“可能不支付”和“肯定不支付”的区间（图2）。据此,正态分布假设下可建立计量模型如下：

（6）

式中：i表示某个受访者;j表示某个投标值;

t_{j}

表示第j个投标值t。

图2

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图2MBDC诱导方式下受访者的可能反应

注：资料来自参考文献[71]。图中DY、PY、NS、PN和DN分别表示受访者i在给定投标值上的支付可能性为“肯定”“可能”“不确定”“可能不”“肯定不”。b, a分别表示受访者价值分布函数上由“不确定”到“可能不”“不确定”到“肯定不”的区间,类似的,-b, -a分别表示由“不确定”到“可能”、“不确定”到“肯定”的区间,则E（V）+b, E（V）+a,E（V）-b, E（V）-a,为各临界点。
Figure 2PPossible responses of respondents following the multiple bounded discrete choice (MBDC) method

5.2.2 Evans等的方法

Evans等^[13]建立了基于损失函数（Loss Function）的不确定性决策估计模型。给定J个投标值t可以把受访者的WTP分布划分为J+1个区间;建立一个最优损失函数,根据该损失函数计算每个区间在似然函数中的贡献F(t_j, θ)-F(t_j_-1, θ),并以偏好在相应区间内变动的可能性,即P_i(V_i<t_j)-P_i(V_i<t_j_-1),为权重进行加权。

（7）

\begin{array}{l} \log L = P_{i} (V_{i} < t_{1}) \times \ln [F (t_{1}, θ)] + \\ \overset{J}{\sum_{j = 2}} [P_{i} (V_{i} < t_{j}) - P_{i} (V_{i} < t_{j - 1})] \times \\ \ln [F (t_{j}, θ) - F (t_{j - 1}, θ)] + P_{i} (V_{i} > t_{J}) \times \\ \ln [1 - F (t_{J}, θ)] \end{array}

式中：V表示期望为μ、方差为σ²的随机价值;θ为总体参数向量。

5.2.3 Kobayashi等的方法

同样,建立在每个人的WTP都有特定分布的假设基础上,考虑各受访者支付可能性转换的临界点不同,Kobayashi等^[14]建立了潜类临界值分析法。Kobayashi认为通过MBDC矩阵观察到的支付可能性只是受访者对系列投标值的反应,而真正使受访者转变支付可能性的临界值（S）是观察不到的,应该作为潜变量,可以表示为某些外生变量（x）的线性函数：

（8）

\begin{array}{l} s_{im} = X_{i}^{'} β_{m} + ε_{im} \\ ε_{im} ~ N (0, σ_{m}^{2}), i = 1, \dots N, m = 1,2, \dots, M \end{array}

式中：N表示受访者个数;m、M分别表示某个临界值、临界值个数;β为参数向量;ε_m为残差项,服从期望为0,标准差为σ_m的正态分布。

给定投标值t_ij,受访者会根据该投标值同自身WTP曲线上临界值S_im的关系给出一个支付可能性的反应y。在得到J个投标值上的反应后,可以建立受访者WTP曲线各临界值所在区间及联合概率密度函数：

（9）

\begin{array}{l} Prob (y_{i} | β, Σ, X_{i}) \\ = Prob [\begin{array}{l} t_{i 1, l} < s_{i 1} < t_{i 1, u} \\ t_{i 2, l} < s_{i 2} < t_{i 2, u} \\ \dots \\ t_{iM, l} < s_{iM} < t_{iM, u} \end{array}] \\ = Φ (X_{i} β, Σ) \\ = Φ (μ, Σ) \end{array}

式中：

Σ

表示协方差矩阵;l、u分别表示各临界值的下界和上界;μ表示个人WTP的期望值。潜类临界值分析法最终可得每个临界值的区间及总体支付意愿的最低值和最高值。

5.2.4 Wang等的方法

以上方法多是对总体参数求解,而Wang等^[71]提出了计算个人WTP分布函数的两步法和一步法。根据两步法中的第一步,对于MBDC矩阵中的投标值t_j,受访者i接受的概率为

P_{ij} = P \{WT P_{i} \geq t_{ij}\} = 1 - F (t_{ij}) + λ_{i}

λ_{i} ~ N (0, δ^{2})

。给定一个WTP分布的假设,如正态分布,基于受访者对J个投标值的反应,可以建立个人的对数似然函数（式（10））,求解其WTP分布的均值μ和标准差δ为残差项的标准差,而WTP的标准差是σ。第二步,在得到所有受访者WTP分布后,可选取相关变量（X, Z）分析影响受访者WTP分布的因素（式（11）。而一步法则是直接把个人WTP分布的均值和标准差表示为外生变量的函数,形成面板数据求解。

（10）

\log L_{i} = \overset{J}{\sum_{j = 1}} \log ? (\frac{P_{ij} - 1 + Φ (\frac{t_{ij} - μ_{i}}{σ_{i}})}{δ})

（11）

\begin{array}{l} μ_{i} = β_{0} + X_{i}^{'} β + e_{1} \\ σ_{i} = v_{0} + Z_{i}^{'} v + e_{2} \end{array}

式中：δ表示残差项λ的标准差;e₁和e₂为残差项;X、Z分别表示影响WTP期望和标准差的外生变量的集合。

Alberini的方法相比Welsh-Poe的模型充分利用了MBDC诱导技术获取的受访者偏好确定性水平信息,并且遵从随机价值理论和模型的解释,将WTP分布上的临界点视为个人特定的,纳入了个体之间偏好的异质性。但是,Alberini等假设受访者对MBDC矩阵中各投标值的反应是完全独立的,这意味着受访者WTP的期望是变化的。而根据理论预期,同一个受访者对系列投标值的反应之间的相关系数应接近于1,且该预期也在Vossler等^[95]的研究中得以证实。Evans虽遵循了WTP为随机变量的假设,但个人特征未被纳入其价值分析模型,忽略了个体之间的异质性。Kobayashi等的潜类临界值分析法不需要对个人WTP分布的函数形式作出严格假设,偏好异质性也在该模型中得到了充分体现。Wang等的两步法不仅能直接求出个人的WTP分布,且其对WTP分布影响因素的分析也有利于揭示个体之间偏好及不确定程度的异质性;其多个实证研究结果对修正传统CVM计算模型、增强不确定偏好下个人WTP分布特征的认识均具有重要意义^[78,96-98]。

6 考虑不确定性对WTP估计的影响

可以从2个方面分析考虑偏好不确定性对WTP估计的影响^⑤(⑤因目前基于随机价值假设的案例研究还相对较少,此部分不再细分唯一值假设和随机价值假设。)：估计值的大小和估计效率。为分析对WTP估计值大小的影响,可将修正后（考虑不确定性）WTP均值与修正前（不考虑不确定性）WTP均值对比。WTP估计效率（EFWTP）常用某方法下所得WTP 95%的置信区间的宽度与其均值的比例表示,EFWTP越大表示估计效率越低^{[19,61,88,99]}。

为评价基于NCS/PC信息修正后的模型效果,此部分选取了11篇文献^⑥(⑥选取的文献要同时包含NCS/PC不确定性信息修正前后的WTP均值和95%置信区间;11篇文献分别为Champ等^[46],Loomis等^[61],Johannesson等^[48],Chang等^[99],Samnaliev等^[42],Whitehead等^[100],Martínez-Espi?eira等^[52],Ekstrand等^[88],Loureiro等^[51],Vossler等^[12],Berrens等^[101]。)共40个观察值^⑦(⑦部分文献中涉及了多个案例或应用了不同的不确定信息处理方法,将每个案例中每一种修正方法所得结果视为一个观察值。),对每一个观察值修正前后WTP估计值的大小及WTP估计效率进行对比分析。由图3可知,多数情况下（60%的观察值）经确定性水平信息修正后所得WTP小于修正前的WTP,且部分案例中（30%的观察值）修正后WTP还不到修正前的50%。可见,考虑偏好不确定性可在一定程度上矫正过高的WTP估计值。但是,修正前后WTP估计效率的对比结果显示（图4）,多数案例修正后WTP估计效率降低。这说明通过设置后续问题获取的不确定性信息本身或对这些信息的处理方法会影响到WTP估计效率,这验证了Samnaliev等^[42]、Ndambiri等^[20]的结论。

图3

新窗口打开|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT
图3考虑不确定性对WTP估计值大小的影响（基于NCS/PC数据）

注：图中水平虚线表示修正后WTP与修正前WTP相等;序号ia, ib, ic……表示来自同一篇文献的不同观察值。
Figure 3The impact of preference uncertainty on magnitude of willingness-to-pay （WTP） estimates

图4

新窗口打开|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT
图4考虑不确定性对WTP估计效率的影响（基于NCS/PC数据）

Figure 4The impact of preference uncertainty on efficiency of willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates

对于在标准DC诱导方式基础上加入“不知道/不确定”中间反应的研究,很少有设置分样本以对比加入中间反应前后估计结果的差异。但是,已经得到多数****认同的是,相对于其他处理方法,直接将受访者“不确定”的反应视为“否”会导致WTP估计值显著偏低（表4）。与标准DC相比,经MBDC不确定性信息修正后的WTP估计值通常也会降低（表5）。由于既有的基于MBDC数据的案例研究中,很少给出WTP 95%的置信区间,难以评价该诱导技术及相应WTP分析模型对EFWTP的影响。

Table 4
表4
表4其他中间反应处理方法与视为“否”所得WTP对比（美元）
Table 4Comparison of willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates with different middle response treatments

作者	评价物品/服务	其他处理方法	其他方法所得WTP_oth	视为“否”所得WTP_no	WTP_oth/ WTP_no
Wang^[10]	加尔维斯顿湾环境质量改善项目	保留中间反应（随机价值模型）	11.860	2.647	4.48
		保留中间反应（有序Probit模型）	11.438	2.647	4.32
		视为缺失值	10.243	2.647	3.87
Haener等^[35]	古老森林保护项目	视为缺失值	121.64	69.39	1.75
Haener等^[35]	古老森林保护项目	重新划分为“是”和“否”	89.94	69.39	1.30
Caudill等^[41]	狼管理计划	视为缺失值	8.69	4.70	1.85
Caudill等^[41]	狼管理计划	重新划分后视为缺失值	6.39	4.70	1.36
Champ等^[87]	控制国家森林中侵袭性植物种类或有毒杂草	重新划分为“是”	140.61	61.65	2.28
		视为缺失值	103.61	61.65	1.68
		保留中间反应（随机价值模型）	102.36	61.65	1.66

新窗口打开|下载CSV

Table 5
表5
表5MBDC与标准DC所得WTP对比（美元）
Table 5Comparison of willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates with the multiple bounded discrete choice (MBDC) method and the standard dichotomous choice (DC) method

作者	评价物品/服务	MBDC处理技术	MBDC所得WTP_M	标准DC所得WTP_D	WTP_M/WTP_D
Vossler等^[12]	清洁能源计划	Welsh-Poe的DY模型	1.76	4.57	0.39
		Welsh-Poe的PY模型	3.23	4.57	0.71
		Welsh-Poe的NS模型	7.14	4.57	1.56
Evans等^[13]	格伦峡谷坝的非使用价值	不确定性决策估计模型	102.06	121.34	0.84
Evans等^[13]	格伦峡谷坝的非使用价值	Welsh-Poe的NS模型	120.29	121.34	0.99
Roach等^[75]	猎人对捕获驼鹿的支付意愿	Welsh-Bishop的模型	748	988	0.76

新窗口打开|下载CSV

7 结论与启示

自然资源等非市场经济价值评估对合理的保护、恢复工程的设计实施具有重要推动作用,而CVM作为非市场经济价值评估的一种重要方法其在应用中还存在着很多挑战,不确定偏好就是其中之一,会影响到问卷设计、调查实施及结果分析各个环节。近期的研究进一步表明,偏好不确定性仍是CVM领域****关注的重点问题之一。虽然国际上****早已意识到意愿调查中受访者偏好的不确定性并发展了不同的不确定偏好测度技术及计量模型修正方法,但由于不确定偏好本身的复杂性,使得各种测度技术和修正方法充满争议。本文在介绍偏好不确定的原因及标准CVM不足的基础上,以不确定偏好的测度方法和不确定偏好下WTP修正方法为核心展开综述。研究发现,非市场物品经济价值评估中存在不确定偏好基本已成共识,不确定偏好下个人WTP应为随机变量的认识也在逐步得到认可。虽然适用于各种场景的最优方法和模型目前尚难有定论,多数****认为借助一定的测度技术获取的不确定性信息是有价值的,可以降低假想偏差,矫正WTP估计值,但是某些不确定性测度技术或WTP修正方法可能导致估计效率的降低。此外,引起偏好不确定性的因素很多,难以区分某单一因素的影响,这就带来了方法选择和应用方面的难题。因此,如何更准确地测度、利用受访者的偏好确定程度以提高WTP估计效率应是今后的研究重点。具体来说,至少还应加强以下几方面的研究：

（1）加强个人偏好及不确定性的异质性研究。除个别研究外,既有研究多是建立在受访者的WTP同分布假设基础上,但是受访者的认知能力、环境态度、对待评估物品的熟悉程度、未来收入变化的可预知性及其他社会经济特征差异较大,这些因素均可直接或间接的引起个人之间WTP分布的异质性。此外,偏好的不确定性也是场景甚至是地区特定的,鉴于当前国内案例研究缺失,非市场物品经济价值评估中的偏好不确定性应该得到国内****的重视。

（2）加强问卷设计环节的研究。考虑到偏好异质性及****所担心的MBDC价值和不确定性信息获取技术对偏好相对确定的受访者的“错误诱导”,可以在受访者回答各投标值上的支付可能性之前,首先询问其支付意愿是否确定（或是否只能以一定的可能性支付某些数值）。此外,可在加入了中间反应的DC问题或MBDC矩阵后设置辅助识别受访者真实偏好确定程度的后续问题。即首先应该从源头上尽可能多地获取有利于识别受访者“真实”偏好及其确定水平的信息。

（3）注重跨学科知识的应用。非市场物品经济价值评估中偏好不确定性是多方面因素引起的,结合多门学科的理论和方法有利于推进相关研究进展。例如,认知心理学中的有限理性原则可以解释在复杂的决策场景中让受访者给出唯一确定的支付意愿值几乎是不可能的,且过多或过少的激励都会对CVM估计结果产生不利影响;行为经济学中对个体决策原则的研究有助于解释当偏好不确定时受访者将如何作出决策;实验经济学能够识别经济理论不能预测的场景,从而为理论的改进提供建议^[102]。这些学科知识的综合应用对于提高CVM设计和实施效果及修正传统的非市场商品经济价值评估方法都具有重要意义。

参考文献原文顺序
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确定生态补偿标准和评估生态补偿效率一直是生态补偿研究的热点和难点之一，直接关系到生态补偿实施的公平性和有效性。本文以云南省滇池松华坝流域为研究对象，对生态补偿标准的计算方法进行了评价和分析，并对不同生态补偿措施的生态补偿标准、生态服务功能及生态补偿效率进行了探讨。研究结果表明：依照生态服务功能价值法计算的生态补偿标准(2.69×104元/hm²)可以作为流域退耕还林生态补偿标准的上限。依机会成本法计算的生态补偿标准因受市场影响而存在较大的市场风险，不宜直接作为确定补偿标准的依据。根据意愿调查法计算的补偿标准(1.28×104元/hm²)可直接作为确定流域生态补偿标准的依据。机会成本法和意愿调查法相结合有利于确定更为合理的生态补偿标准。研究还表明不同的生态补偿措施具有不同的生态补偿效率，在假定的生态补偿措施中，种植结构调整、坡地退耕还林、平地退耕还林和水土保持措施的生态补偿效率依次降低。研究也暗示在实施生态补偿中应重视生态补偿措施的选择和生态补偿效率的评估。

[ Li Y

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URL

李京梅, 许志华, 姚海燕 , 等. 胶州湾围填海生态损害评估: 支付卡和单边界二分法的比较
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[ Li J

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[18]

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条件估值法（CVM）是估算环境物品经济价值最主要的技术方法之一。由于条件估值法中的支付意愿依赖于受访者的看法，而不是他们真实的市场行为，因此存在着诸如调查者提供的背景信息不充分、问卷格式不同等一系列不确定性因素，这些都将直接影响到受访者的支付意愿。对支付卡式（Payment Card）调查问卷进行了扩展，增设一道反映受访者对其投标数值的确定性程度问题，在此基础上建立了支付意愿的不确定性模型，并以评估宝天高速公路（牛背至天水段）沿线生态环境的总经济价值为例进行了实证分析。研究结果表明：运用不确定性模型计算出的平均支付意愿为32.12元，总经济价值为284~349万元；与不考虑不确定性因素计算出的平均支付意愿（62.17元）相比，二者相差1倍；而总经济价值相差近294~327万元。这表明，CVM中不确定性因素对平均支付意愿影响很大，如不考虑将导致计算结果不精确，甚至存在较大误差。

[ Zhang M

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, Mungatana

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[J]. Environment and Development Economics, 2016,21(5):649-668.

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[21]

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, Brown T

. A Primer on Nonmarket Valuation
[M]. Dordrecht: Springer, 2017.

[本文引用: 1]

[22]

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, van Kooten G

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[J]. Ecological Economics, 2007,62(1):115-125.

DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.05.016 URL [本文引用: 4]

[23]

Bateman I

, Burgess

, Hutchinson W

, et al. Learning design contingent valuation (LDCV): NOAA guidelines, preference learning and coherent arbitrariness
[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2008,55(2):127-141.

DOI:10.1016/j.jeem.2007.08.003 URL [本文引用: 1]

Abstract

We extend the contingent valuation (CV) method to test three differing conceptions of individuals’ preferences as either (i) a-priori well-formed or readily divined and revealed through a single dichotomous choice question (as per the NOAA CV guidelines [K. Arrow, R. Solow, P.R. Portney, E.E. Leamer, R. Radner, H. Schuman, Report of the NOAA panel on contingent valuation, Fed. Reg. 58 (1993) 4601–4614]); (ii) learned or ‘discovered’ through a process of repetition and experience [J.A. List, Does market experience eliminate market anomalies? Q. J. Econ. (2003) 41–72; C.R. Plott, Rational individual behaviour in markets and social choice processes: the discovered preference hypothesis, in: K. Arrow, E. Colombatto, M. Perleman, C. Schmidt (Eds.), Rational Foundations of Economic Behaviour, Macmillan, London, St. Martin's, New York, 1996, pp. 225–250]; (iii) internally coherent but strongly influenced by some initial arbitrary anchor [D. Ariely, G. Loewenstein, D. Prelec, ‘Coherent arbitrariness’: stable demand curves without stable preferences, Q. J. Econ. 118(1) (2003) 73–105]. Findings reject both the first and last of these conceptions in favour of a model in which preferences converge towards standard expectations through a process of repetition and learning. In doing so, we show that such a ‘learning design CV’ method overturns the ‘stylised facts’ of bias and anchoring within the double bound dichotomous choice elicitation format.

[24]

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, Kristr?m

, Shogren J

. Coherent arbitrariness: On value uncertainty for environmental goods
[J]. Land Economics, 2009,85(1):41-50.

DOI:10.3368/le.85.1.41 URL [本文引用: 5]

[25]

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[J]. Ecological Economics, 1995,12(3):191-208.

DOI:10.1111/brv.12227 URLPMID:26526656 [本文引用: 1]

Many democratic governments recognize a duty to conserve environmental resources, including wild animals, as a public trust for current and future citizens. These public trust principles have informed two centuries of U.S.A. Supreme Court decisions and environmental laws worldwide. Nevertheless numerous populations of large-bodied, mammalian carnivores (predators) were eradicated in the 20th century. Environmental movements and strict legal protections have fostered predator recoveries across the U.S.A. and Europe since the 1970s. Now subnational jurisdictions are regaining management authority from central governments for their predator subpopulations. Will the history of local eradication repeat or will these jurisdictions adopt public trust thinking and their obligation to broad public interests over narrower ones? We review the role of public trust principles in the restoration and preservation of controversial species. In so doing we argue for the essential roles of scientists from many disciplines concerned with biological diversity and its conservation. We look beyond species endangerment to future generations' interests in sustainability, particularly non-consumptive uses. Although our conclusions apply to all wild organisms, we focus on predators because of the particular challenges they pose for government trustees, trust managers, and society. Gray wolves Canis lupus L. deserve particular attention, because detailed information and abundant policy debates across regions have exposed four important challenges for preserving predators in the face of interest group hostility. One challenge is uncertainty and varied interpretations about public trustees' responsibilities for wildlife, which have created a mosaic of policies across jurisdictions. We explore how such mosaics have merits and drawbacks for biodiversity. The other three challenges to conserving wildlife as public trust assets are illuminated by the biology of predators and the interacting behavioural ecologies of humans and predators. The scientific community has not reached consensus on sustainable levels of human-caused mortality for many predator populations. This challenge includes both genuine conceptual uncertainty and exploitation of scientific debate for political gain. Second, human intolerance for predators exposes value conflicts about preferences for some wildlife over others and balancing majority rule with the protection of minorities in a democracy. We examine how differences between traditional assumptions and scientific studies of interactions between people and predators impede evidence-based policy. Even if the prior challenges can be overcome, well-reasoned policy on wild animals faces a greater challenge than other environmental assets because animals and humans change behaviour in response to each other in the short term. These coupled, dynamic responses exacerbate clashes between uses that deplete wildlife and uses that enhance or preserve wildlife. Viewed in this way, environmental assets demand sophisticated, careful accounting by disinterested trustees who can both understand the multidisciplinary scientific measurements of relative costs and benefits among competing uses, and justly balance the needs of all beneficiaries including future generations. Without public trust principles, future trustees will seldom prevail against narrow, powerful, and undemocratic interests. Without conservation informed by public trust thinking predator populations will face repeated cycles of eradication and recovery. Our conclusions have implications for the many subfields of the biological sciences that address environmental trust assets from the atmosphere to aquifers.

[26]

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, Reid

, Blamey

. Do existence values for cost-benefit analysis exist?
[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics, 1997,9(2):225-238.

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This paper aims to assess the methodological quality of economic evaluations included in Belgian reimbursement applications for Class 1 drugs.

[27]

Rekola

. Lexicographic preferences in contingent valuation: A theoretical framework with illustrations
[J]. Land Economics, 2003,79(2):277-291.

DOI:10.7326/0003-4819-79-2-277 URLPMID:4726540 [本文引用: 1]

[28]

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, Pirrone

, Bailly

. Dealing with preference uncertainty in contingent willingness to pay for a nature protection program: A new approach
[J]. Ecological Economics, 2013,88(3):76-85.

DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.01.009 URL [本文引用: 2]

[29]

McVittie

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, Elston

. Public preferences for rural policy reform: Evidence from Scottish surveys
[J]. Regional Studies, 2010,44(5):609-626.

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[30]

Dost

, Wilken

. Measuring willingness to pay as a range, revisited: When should we care?
[J]. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 2012,29(2):148-166.

DOI:10.1016/j.ijresmar.2011.09.003 URL [本文引用: 1]

Recent research has conceptualized consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) as a range rather than as a single point. However, there are important gaps in this research stream: The existing method to measure WTP as a range, ICERANGE, features restrictive assumptions and is rather complex, such that it hampers real-world applications. Furthermore, it is unclear what has been measured in the past with point-based methods, compared with WTP ranges; thus, researchers cannot evaluate "traditional" WTP measurements. Most importantly, why should anyone even care about WTP ranges? In making pricing decisions, aggregate-level information is common, and the add-on information contained in individual WTP ranges would seemingly become obsolete when averaging it across consumers. This article addresses all three issues: We show empirically that traditional point-based methods reveal the midpoint of WTP ranges. Our proposed range-based method, which is simpler and less restricted than ICERANGE, achieves comparable performance. We use a Monte Carlo simulation to show that, except for in rather artificial conditions, point-based methods fail to reproduce the revenue-maximizing prices identified by range-based methods. Together, these results deliver a compelling argument for the use of range-based methods to elicit WTP in real-world applications. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V.

[31]

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, Kristr?m

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[J]. Economics Bulletin, 2016,36(1):218-236.

[本文引用: 1]

[32]

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, Zhong L

, et al. Respondent uncertainty and reliability in contingent valuation: A case of the Dalai Lake Protected Area
[J]. Limnologica-Ecology and Management of Inland Waters, 2016,58:59-68.

DOI:10.1016/j.limno.2016.02.004 URL [本文引用: 2]

[33]

Arrow

, Solow

, Portney P

, et al. Report of the NOAA panel on contingent valuation
[J]. Federal Register, 1993,58(10):4601-4614.

[本文引用: 1]

[34]

Carson R

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, Kopp R

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[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1998,80(2):335-338.

DOI:10.1162/003465398557429 URL [本文引用: 2]

[35]

Haener M

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. Analysis of “Don’t Know” responses in referendum contingent valuation questions
[J]. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 1998,27(2):219-230.

[本文引用: 3]

[36]

Groothuis P

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[J]. Applied Economics, 2002,34(15):1935-1940.

DOI:10.1080/00036840210128717 URL [本文引用: 2]

[37]

Krosnick J

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[J]. Public Opinion Quarterly, 2002,66(3):371-403.

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[38]

Alberini

, Boyle

, Welsh

. Analysis of contingent valuation data with multiple bids and response options allowing respondents to express uncertainty
[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2003,45(1):40-62.

DOI:10.1016/S0095-0696(02)00010-4 URL [本文引用: 5]

Abstract

The NOAA Panel on Contingent Valuation advocated a “no answer” response option to dichotomous-choice payment questions, but did not give guidance as to how this additional response should be interpreted conceptually or analytically. We investigate the econometric modeling and response effects associated with multiple-bounded, polychotomous-choice payment question. We find that using multiple bids with responses to each bid can increase the efficiency of welfare estimates, but this approach is not free from bid design effects. Moreover, in our application, explicitly modeling uncertain responses can increase welfare estimates by over 100%.

[39]

Vossler C

, Kerkvliet

, Polasky

, et al. Externally validating contingent valuation: An open-space survey and referendum in Corvallis, Oregon
[J]. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2003,51(2):261-277.

DOI:10.3390/insects11010021 URLPMID:31881775 [本文引用: 2]

The Angoumois grain moth, Sitotroga cerealella (Olivier, 1789) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), is primarily a pest of stored products, that feeds inside the grain as larvae inducing significant economic loss in various stored commodities. Our previous studies proved that garlic essential oil and its active substances inhibit oviposition in moths. To further explore the effect on reproductive behavior and accurately interpret the results in terms of effective control of the moth population, moths were treated with diallyl trisulfide (DATS), an active substance of garlic essential oil, at a dose of 0.015 μL/L in air (LC₂₀, sub-lethal concentration). The results showed that fecundity and the proportion of viable eggs significantly decreased when the moths were treated with LC₂₀ DATS. Furthermore, female circadian mating rhythms and calling periodicity changed significantly after treatment. Compared with controls, the peak in mating occurred approximately 1 h earlier on the first day after DATS treatment, while it was significantly later on days 2 and 3. Moreover, mating frequency declined in presence of DATS compared with the controls. The percentage of females engaging in calling behavior decreased significantly with time, to less than 50%, 2 days after treatment, while a high calling percentage (>80%) was recorded for control moths on all 4 days. In addition, DATS had an inhibitory effect on the mating duration of S. cerealella. Moreover, a significant reduction was observed in the amount of sex pheromones extracted 8 h and 9 h after treatment. Our findings suggested that DATS has the potential to manipulate the moth population at LC₂₀ and would be an efficient alternative to synthetic insecticides for the control of pests having low toxicity to non-target organisms and ecosystems.

[40]

Vossler C

, Kerkvliet

. A criterion validity test of the contingent valuation method: Comparing hypothetical and actual voting behavior for a public referendum
[J]. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2003,45(3):631-649.

DOI:10.1016/S0095-0696(02)00017-7 URL [本文引用: 3]

Abstract

This study pursues external validation of contingent valuation by comparing survey results with the voting outcome of a Corvallis, Oregon, referendum to fund a riverfront improvement project through increased property taxes. Survey respondents hypothetically make a voting decision—with no financial consequences—on the upcoming referendum. The survey sample consists of respondents verified to have voted in the election. We use available precinct-level election data to compare the proportion of “yes” survey and referendum votes as well as estimate voting models and mean willingness to pay (WTP) based on the two sets of data. We find that survey responses match the actual voting outcome and WTP estimates based on the two are not statistically different. Contrary to similar studies, our statistical results do not depend on re-coding the majority of “undecided” survey responses to “no.” Furthermore, such a re-coding of responses may be inappropriate for our data set.

[41]

Caudill S

, Groothuis P

. Modeling hidden alternatives in random utility models: An application to “don’t know” responses in contingent valuation
[J]. Land Economics, 2005,81(3):445-454.

DOI:10.1002/1097-4644(20010601)81:3&lt;445::aid-jcb1058&gt;3.0.co;2-2 URLPMID:11255227 [本文引用: 5]

Protein kinase CK2 is a ubiquitous protein that phosphorylates multiple substrates and is composed of catalytic (alpha, alpha') and regulatory (beta) subunits. Abundant evidence relates CK2 to the regulation of cell division. p21(WAF1/CIP1) is a potent inhibitor of cyclin-dependent kinases and of DNA replication and acts as a key inhibitor of cell cycle progression. In this work we examine the relation between these two important proteins. The interaction between the CK2 beta regulatory subunit of CK2 and p21(WAF1/CIP1) has been confirmed. Using a pull-down assay and fusion constructs of glutathione transferase with fragments of CK2 beta and other mutants, it was possible to define that the N-terminal (1-44) portion of CK2 beta contains a p21(WAF1/CIP1) binding site. CK2 reconstituted from recombinant alpha and beta subunits can phosphorylate p21(WAF1/CIP1) in vitro. This phosphorylation is greatly enhanced by histone H1. p21(WAF1/CIP1) can inhibit the phosphorylation of substrate casein by CK2. This inhibition, however, seems to be due to competition by p21(WAF1/CIP1) as an alternate substrate since in order to observe inhibition it is necessary that the concentration of p21 be of the same order of magnitude as the casein substrate concentration. This competition is not related to the binding of p21(WAF1/CIP1) to CK2 beta because it can also be observed when, in the absence of CK beta, CK alpha is used to phosphorylate casein in the presence of the p21.

[42]

Samnaliev

, Stevens T

, More

. A comparison of alternative certainty calibration techniques in contingent valuation
[J]. Ecological Economics, 2006,57(3):507-519.

DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.05.017 URL [本文引用: 8]

[43]

Bradburn N

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[M]. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Publishers, 1988.

[本文引用: 2]

[44]

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. Contingent valuation
[J]. Handbook of Environmental Economics, 2006,2:821-936.

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Stated preferences methods are extensively applied in health economics to elicit preferences. Although mailed surveys were commonly used to collect data, internet panel (IP) surveys are being increasingly used. This raises questions about the validity of responses and estimated willingness-to-pay (WTP) values generated from IP surveys. We conduct the first study in health to compare a contingent valuation IP survey with a mailed survey using the electoral roll. Our IP has a higher response rate and lower item missing response rate. The difference is reduced but remains when restricting comparisons with valid WTPs. Sample characteristics differ, with significant differences between modes for gender, age, income, and attitudes and knowledge. Although difference in WTP values exist, with the IP resulting in higher values, we find limited evidence that such differences are statistically significant. The mail survey has lower initial cost per response; however, once restricting samples to valid WTP responses with nonmissing respondent information, the cost per response across modes is similar. Our results, suggesting that IPs generate valid and cost-effective values, are encouraging as researchers move increasingly to IPs to collect preference data.

[45]

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[C]. Portland: Proceedings from W-133 Benefits and Cost Transfer in Natural Resource Planning, 1997.

[本文引用: 3]

[46]

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, Bishop R

, Brown T

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[47]

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[本文引用: 1]

[48]

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[50]

Poe G

, Clark J

, Rondeau

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[J]. Environmental and Resource Economics, 2002,23(1):105-131.

DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.149 URLPMID:29272832 [本文引用: 3]

In many instances, Contingent Valuation practitioners rely on voluntary monetary contributions, despite the fact that they are deemed to be neither incentive compatible in theory nor demand revealing in practice. The reason is that they are suitable for most field applications and offer benefits that may outweigh their drawbacks. This paper endeavors to contribute to the literature by exploring the effect of donation payments with differing incentive structures and information levels on contingent values and on respondents' uncertainty regarding the donations declared. To this end, a field survey was conducted using a sample of 332 respondents who were randomly assigned to one of three different mechanisms: (1) individual contribution (hereinafter CVM treatment); (2) individual contribution with provision point mechanism (PPM), where the total cost of the project is unknown (hereinafter PPM treatment); and (3) individual contribution with PPM, where the total cost of the project is known (hereinafter PPM-INF treatment). The results indicate that there are no statistically significant differences in willingness to pay (WTP) estimates between the CVM and PPM treatments nor between the PPM and the PPM-INF treatments. The results also indicate that the PPM has a positive effect on respondents' certainty level, but there is no evidence that the certainty level is affected by the project information cost. The results are mixed compared to previous research efforts. Thus, further tests are necessary in field comparisons and under different information environments before any definite recommendations can be made.

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, Loomis

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[C]. Gothemburg: The European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists 16th Annual Conference, 2008.

[本文引用: 3]

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Martínez-Espi?eira

, Lyssenko

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[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2012,93(1):130-139.

DOI:10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.09.008 URL [本文引用: 6]

Several strategies have been proposed to deal with response uncertainty in contingent valuation. One approach, often applied to address issues of hypothetical bias, recodes and/or reweights responses according to stated levels of certainty but so far few analyses compare alternative recoding and reweighting strategies. We explore the choice among alternative strategies that exploit a numerical certainty scale obtained from a follow-up to the payment question in a valuation survey about a whale conservation program. Two novel variations of previously followed approaches perform best on our dataset in terms of the efficiency of estimates. The first one uses an exponential transformation of the numerical certainty scale as a weight in the willingness to pay regression. The other one is based on constructing a continuous willingness to pay variable with the highly certain "yes" and "no" original responses to the payment question as extreme values and with mid-point values that correspond to the original "don't know" responses. We find, though, that the effect of using different treatment strategies on mean willingness to pay is rarely statistically significant and we fail to detect a consistent effect on the efficiency of the estimation regardless of the strategy applied. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

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, Blumenschein

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[54]

Ready R

, Navrud

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[J]. Land Economics, 2001,77(3):315-326.

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[55]

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, Johannesson

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, et al. Experimental results on expressed certainty and hypothetical bias in contingent valuation
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[56]

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, Johannesson

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, et al. Hypothetical versus real willingness to pay in the health care sector: Results from a field experiment
[J]. Journal of Health Economics, 2001,20(3):441-457.

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We conducted a field experiment comparing hypothetical and real purchase decisions for a pharmacist provided asthma management program among 172 subjects with asthma. Subjects received either a dichotomous choice contingent valuation question or were given the opportunity to actually enroll in the program. Three different prices were used: US$ 15, 40, and 80. In the hypothetical group, 38% of subjects said that they would purchase the good at the stated price, but only 12% of subjects in the real group purchased the good (p = 0.000). We cannot, however, reject the null hypothesis that &quot;definitely sure&quot; hypothetical yes responses, as identified in a follow-up question, correspond to real yes responses. We conclude that the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method overestimates willingness to pay, but that it may be possible to correct for this overestimation by sorting out &quot;definitely sure&quot; yes responses.

[57]

Blomquist G

, Johannesson

, Blumenschein

, et al. Eliciting willingness to pay without bias: Evidence from a field experiment
[J]. The Economic Journal, 2008,118(525):114-137.

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[58]

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, Brander

, et al. Respondent uncertainty in a contingent market for carbon offsets
[J]. Ecological Economics, 2009,68(6):1858-1863.

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[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2012,113:184-193.

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Respondent uncertainty is often considered as one of the main limitations of stated preference methods, which are nowadays being widely used for valuing environmental goods and services. This article examines the effect of respondent uncertainty on welfare estimates by applying the contingent valuation method. This is done in the context of beach protection against erosion. Respondent certainty levels are elicited using a five-category polychotomous choice question. Two different uncertainty calibration techniques are tested, namely one that treats uncertain responses as missing and another in which uncertain 'yes' responses are recoded as 'no' responses. We found no evidence that the former technique offers any gains over the conventional model assuming certainty. The latter calibration technique systematically reduces welfare estimates. The reduction is statistically significant only when the most certain 'yes' responses are recoded as 'no' responses. The article further identifies determinants of respondent uncertainty. Finally, it explores how real market experience affects respondent uncertainty. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

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Orthopedics is a discipline that requires a continuum of care in close collaboration with physicians, nurses, and healthcare professionals to ensure effective rehabilitation. In some cases, the wait time for a consultation may be very long, which can jeopardize the patient's rehabilitation and sometimes even cause complications that lead to a loss of autonomy. In Quebec, there is a severe shortage of healthcare professionals-and of orthopedic surgeons, in particular-specializing in musculoskeletal problems. To address this problem, public managers have decided to establish interdisciplinary musculoskeletal clinics in regions outside the two major cities of Montréal and Québec. The major benefits of these clinics are that they reduce the wait time for consultation and treatment while maintaining service quality. Although their benefits are certain, these clinics remain threatened by relatively high initial costs. This study's objective is to evaluate whether the population of Quebec has a quantifiable willingness to pay (WTP) to establish these clinics. To our knowledge, this is the first study of its kind either in the province of Quebec or elsewhere. We selected 3822 subjects randomly within the target population using Internet surveys, telephone surveys and self-administered paper surveys as our methods of recruitment. Three payment vehicles were used and each participant was randomly allocated among these: tax, donation or lump-sum fee. A contingent valuation question using a referendum format with the option &quot;don't know&quot; was used. Econometric estimates were performed using probit and Wang's models. Our results indicate that the population of Quebec may potentially have a mean WTP of 42.3 Canadian dollars per person for such clinics, which would enable a mean reduction from 12 to 4 months of wait time. However, the WTP is found to be very sensitive to the survey mode and the payment vehicle used: about 1.2-2 times more important in the tax and the lump-sum fee scenarios than in the donation scenario, and about 3-4 times less important in the Internet survey than in the telephone or self-administered paper surveys. In addition, this amount was strongly affected by the introduction of a new governmental health-related policy that arose during the survey and led to a minimal drop in WTP of about 30-50?%. This strong sensitivity led us to the three following recommendations for future contingent valuation studies: (1) favour Internet surveys, (2) use a payment vehicle that limit uncertainty in the WTP answer and allow to socialize benefits, as the tax scenario in our study, and (3) strictly apply the &quot;divide by 2&quot; rule of the NOAA panel.

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Parental phubbing refers to the extent to which parents use or are distracted by their cell phone when they interact with their children. There has been growing scholarly interest in understanding the adverse effects of parental phubbing on adolescents' development. However, it is less clear whether parental phubbing potentially increases adolescents' depressive symptoms, to date, and the understanding of the factors which may affect this relationship is also limited. The current study, therefore, examined the relationship between parental phubbing and adolescents' depressive symptoms and sought to determine whether self-esteem and perceived social support simultaneously moderated this relationship. The participants included 2407 students (1202 girls; Mage?=?12.75, SD?=?0.58) from seven middle schools in China. They completed the questionnaires regarding their experience with parental phubbing, self-esteem, perceived social support, and depressive symptoms. Results indicated that adolescents with a high level of parental phubbing were likely to have a high level of depressive symptoms, after controlling age, gender, and perceived economic stress. Low self-esteem adolescents who experienced higher levels of parental phubbing were more likely to be depressed than high self-esteem adolescents. Furthermore, higher levels of parental phubbing significantly predicted increases in adolescents' depressive symptoms when their self-esteem and perceived social support were both low, or one was low. In contrast, this effect became nonsignificant when adolescents' self-esteem and perceived social support were both high. Parents who are concerned about adolescents' depressive symptoms should pay closer attention to adolescents' self-esteem, as well as their perceived social support, in order to provide appropriate interventions.

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Abstract

We advocate a more formal structural approach for comparing WTP for non-market or pre-test-market goods conveyed by fundamentally different preference elicitation mechanisms. Seven independent samples of respondents were asked to value the identical good. Elicitation methods include one actual purchase and six widely used hypothetical choice formats. Using a common underlying indirect utility function (and stochastic structure) allows data for different elicitation methods to be used independently, compared pair-wise (as in much of the earlier literature) or pooled across all samples in one unified model with heteroscedasticity across elicitation methods. Our differences in estimated WTP for the individual models are typical of earlier findings. However, pooled-data models that allow for heteroscedasticity reveal that while there are substantial differences in the amount of noise in the different samples, a common underlying systematic component of the preference structure cannot be rejected for at least four (and possibly five) of these seven elicitation methods.

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Two contingent valuation (CV) surveys were conducted in Kunming, China, to estimate households' willingness to pay (WTP) for the Panlong River rehabilitation project. The two surveys were conducted using the same procedures and questionnaires except for the payment schedule arrangements, which permitted a calculation of respondents' implicit discount rate. The surveys provided two estimates of WTP, one with a mean of 23 Yuan in monthly payment over 5 years and the other with a mean of 311 Yuan in a lump-sum payment that will cover all the expenses for a period of 5 years. The results produce an estimate of monthly discount rate of 7.6%-12.6% or annual discount rate of 141-315%. The estimates are higher than that reported from those studies conducted in the U.S., but are compatible with that of some other studies. This study also shows that both mean individual WTP and implicit individual discount rates are closely related to household demographic and economic characteristics and environment-related perceptions, as reported in the studies conducted in other countries.

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This paper presents a study of the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for surface water quality improvement in China. In the Huaping County of Yunnan Province, we found that people are willing to pay 74 Yuan (or US$12.33 in 2012 prices) per household per month (or 5% of household income) continuously for five years to achieve an improvement of water quality in the two major local rivers from the current Grade IV to Grade III, which denotes a level suitable for swimming and fishing and matches the water quality level from 10 years ago. This WTP study is based on an actual investment project that was under serious consideration by the government and is based on the multiple-bounded discrete choice (MBDC) approach, which explicitly recognizes the potential uncertainties involved in the study. The potential ordering effects associated with the MBDC approach are empirically tested, and the results indicate that although the presentation order of the polychotomous likelihood choices may not have a significant impact on the WTP estimation, the presentation order of bid levels may have a significant impact. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

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The paper introduces the reader to the contingent valuation method for monetary valuation of individuals’ preferences regarding changes to environmental goods. Approaches to the validity testing of results from such studies are discussed. These focus upon whether findings conform with economic-theoretic expectations, in particular regarding whether valuations are sensitive to the size (or ‘scope’) of environmental change being considered, and whether they are invariant to alterations in study design which are irrelevant from the perspective of economic theory. We apply such tests to a large sample study of schemes to alter the acidity levels of remote mountain lakes. Results suggest that, when presented with environmental changes which respondents are concerned about, their values exhibit scope sensitivity and conform to theoretical expectations, and therefore could be used for formulating policy. However, when presented with changes which respondents feel are trivial, their values fail tests of theoretical consistency and are not scope sensitive, and therefore cannot be used within economic appraisals. Interestingly we find that qualitative focus group analyses are good indicators of whether a given change is likely to be considered trivial or not and therefore whether scope sensitivity tests are likely to be satisfied.

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The contingent valuation (CV) method is used to estimate the willingness to pay (WTP) for services and products to inform cost benefit analyses (CBA). A long-standing criticism that stated WTP estimates may be poor indicators of actual WTP, calls into question their validity and the use of such estimates for welfare evaluation, especially in the health sector. Available evidence on the validity of CV studies so far is inconclusive. We systematically reviewed the literature to (1) synthesize the evidence on the criterion validity of WTP/willingness to accept (WTA), (2) undertake a meta-analysis, pooling evidence on the extent of variation between stated and actual WTP values and, (3) explore the reasons for the variation.

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Even though surface water has been polluted almost everywhere in China, few economic valuation studies have been conducted to value water quality changes. This paper reports an economic valuation study conducted in Yunnan, China, which estimates the total value of a real investment project to improve the water quality of Lake Puzhehei by one grade level. Located in Qiubei County far from big cities, the lake has been experiencing rapid water quality deterioration in past several years. Based on the multiple bounded discrete choice approach, an average household in Qiubei County is estimated to be willing to pay 30 yuan per month continuously for 5 years for the water quality improvement by one grade level, roughly equivalent to 3% of the average household income. The elasticity of willingness-to-pay with respect to income is estimated to be 0.21. The economic rate of return of the proposed project is estimated to be 18%, indicating an economically favorable investment in water quality improvement. This study also demonstrates that the previous knowledge about the water quality changes and about the project can have significant positive impacts on people's willingness to pay, whereas the interviewer effect on valuation can be negative. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V.

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Bioaerosol monitoring is a rapidly emerging area in the context of work environments because microbial pollution is a key element of indoor air pollution and plays an important role in certain infectious diseases and allergies. However, as yet, relatively little is known about inhaled doses of microorganisms in workplaces. Today, the important issue of social concern is due to waste management, transport, sorting, and processing of wastes and their environmental impact and effects on public health. In fact, waste management activities can have numerous adverse effects on human wellbeing. Health effects are generally linked to exposure (EX), de?ned as the concentration of a contaminant and the length of time a person is exposed to this concentration. Dose is an effective tool for evaluating the quantity of a contaminant that actually crosses the body's boundaries and influences the goal tissue. This document presents an analysis of the fungal waste-sorting plant EX dose (FWSPED) inhaled by workers in a waste-sorting plant (WSP) in Poland in March 2019. The main purpose of this research was to assess FWSPED inhaled by workers in two cabins at the WSP: the preliminary manual sorting cabin (PSP) and the purification manual sorting cabin (quality control; QSP). It was found that the FWSPED inhaled by workers was 193 CFU/kg in the PSP and 185 CFU/kg in the QSP. Fungal particles were quantitatively evaluated and qualitatively identified by the GEN III Biolog system. During the research, it was found that isolates belonging to the Aspergilus flavus and Penicillum chrysogenum strains were detected most frequently in the WSP. The total elimination of many anthropogenic sources is not possible, but the important ?ndings of this research can be used to develop realistic management policies and methods to improve the biological air quality of WSPs for effective protection of WSP workers.

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Abstract

In the spirit of Randall's [Resource Energy Econom. 20, 197–206 (1998)] argument for focusing on mapping the performance characteristics of alternative contingent valuation designs and formats, the focus of this study is on three tests of the voluntary contribution mechanism. We investigate the response effects of three crossed treatments: (1) an informational treatment that randomly varies the total cost of providing the good to identify possible fair share effects; (2) a split-sample informational treatment that makes the time of contribution explicit; and (3) elicitation formats that allow respondent uncertainty, both as a follow-up to a dichotomous choice question, and asked directly in a split-sample treatment.

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The term behavioral science was coined in 1946 by a research group at the University of Chicago led by Miller. It is defined as &quot;science that systematically reveals the rules of human behavior&quot;. To elucidate human behavior, they proposed combining biological science and social science. In Japan, achievements in behavioral science research have accumulated and have been applied in health education and health policy. In this paper, we describe the current status and future approaches in social medicine through an overview of behavioral science research in Japan with regard to the following five points: 1) representative theories and techniques in health behavior, 2) differences in health awareness, 3) a new approach of behavioral science based on the dual process theory, behavioral economics, and zero-order prevention, 4) diversity in behavioral changes and 5) experimental research in behavioral science.