Multi-level urban land expansion characterization using spatiotemporal statistics for Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi
TONGLuyi1,2,, HUShougeng1,2, 1. School of Public Administration, China University of Geosciences (CUG), Wuhan 430074, China2. The Key Laboratory of the Ministry of Land and Resources for Legal Evaluation Engineering, Wuhan 430074, China 通讯作者:通讯作者:胡守庚,E-mail: husg2009@gmail.com 收稿日期:2017-11-1 修回日期:2018-02-24 网络出版日期:2018-06-25 版权声明:2018《资源科学》编辑部《资源科学》编辑部 基金资助:国土资源部公益性行业科研专项基金(201511004) 作者简介: -->作者简介:童陆亿,男,湖北宜昌人,博士生,主要从事城市土地利用转型研究。E-mail: lytongc@gmail.com
关键词:城镇用地扩张;时空统计模型;扩张模式;时空特征;湘鄂赣 Abstract This study provided a framework for multi-level urban land expansion characterization through spatiotemporal statistics based on degree-of-freedom, degree-of-sprawl, and degree-of-goodness. This framework was used to estimate and analyze variable characteristics and patterns of urban land expansion from 1990-2015 in 327 counties that are administrated by Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi provinces in central China at different levels. In addition, four different levels (overall, provincial, metropolitan and city) were examined. Results indicated that the variable characteristics of urban land expansion observed in counties administrated by Hubei, Hunan, and Jiangxi provinces at different levels were seriously generated during the period 1995-2015. In addition, varying spatiotemporal urban land expansion was, on one hand, derived by spatially heterogeneous urban land expansion among counties and on the other hand, shaped by variable outcomes of experiments estimating urban land expansion by the proposal framework in each county when characterizing the expansion at different levels. It was noteworthy that these varied sprawl characteristics might provide us with indicators for the status of counties gained among urban land expansion in large-scale regions; and with which, major urban land expansion patterns, mainly including controlled growth, floating growth, disorderly sprawl, and evolving sprawl, were identified in the study. More importantly, counties located in metropolitan and plain areas, compared to those from non-metropolitan and mountainous areas, generally witnessed dominated disorderly sprawl and evolving sprawl. Controlled growth and floating sprawl were dominate patterns in non-metropolitan, mountainous and hilly districts. Initiatives for promoting research on multi-level urban expansion estimation, variable characteristics, patterns and their inherent causative factors are of great importance for multi-level and special urban land expansion management and sustainable urban development strategies.
Keywords:urban land expansion;spatiotemporal statistics;multi-level analyses;spatiotemporal characteristics;Hunan Province;Hubei Province;Jiangxi Province -->0 PDF (12562KB)元数据多维度评价相关文章收藏文章 本文引用格式导出EndNoteRisBibtex收藏本文--> 童陆亿, 胡守庚. 湘鄂赣三省多级城镇用地扩张时空特征[J]. 资源科学, 2018, 40(6): 1175-1185 https://doi.org/10.18402/resci.2018.06.08 TONGLuyi, HUShougeng. Multi-level urban land expansion characterization using spatiotemporal statistics for Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi[J]. RESOURCES SCIENCE, 2018, 40(6): 1175-1185 https://doi.org/10.18402/resci.2018.06.08
湖南、湖北和江西(湘鄂赣)三省,地处长江经济带中游,下辖42个地级及以上城市(327个县、市、区),现已建成三大城市群(图1)。其中,长株潭城市群下辖长沙、株洲、湘潭3个地级市;武汉市城市圈下辖武汉、孝感、黄冈、黄石、鄂州、咸宁、潜江、天门、仙桃9市;环鄱阳湖城市群包括南昌、上饶(潘阳县、余干县、万年县)、景德镇、九江(除修水县)、鹰潭、抚州(临川区、东乡县)、新余(渝水区)、吉安(新干县)、宜春(高安市、樟树市、丰城市)等9个地区。湘鄂赣三省生态环境良好,长江、洞庭湖及鄱阳湖等大型水体分布其中,西部及中、东部山区林地资源丰富,为区域发展提供了重要的生态屏障。此外,长江沿线尤其是洞庭湖和鄱阳湖等平原地区地势平坦,耕地资源丰富,是国家重要的粮食主产区之一。铁路、高速公路等交通干线网和长江水道规划建设活动,极大地提升了湘鄂赣三省交通区位优势。近年来,湘鄂赣三省经济水平不断提升。“十二五”期间其GDP年均增速高达16.71%,高于全国平均水平(16.08%)[25]。随着长江经济带、长江中游城市群建设等国家战略的深入,湘鄂赣三省有望成为中国社会经济增长的又一战略要地。然而,湘鄂赣三省城镇用地扩张时空特征与模式尚不明确,由城镇用地扩张所引发的资源环境风险依旧存在。如何有效权衡区域“发展”与“城镇用地扩张管控”关系,以实现湘鄂赣三省协调、可持续发展目标已成为国家和地区关注的焦点。 显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT 图1湘鄂赣三省区位示意 -->Figure 1Location of Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi provinces -->
1990—2015年期间,湘鄂赣三省经历了快速的城镇用地扩张过程,城镇用地比例从1990年的0.54%增加到2015年的1.38%,年均复合增长率达3.82%(表1)。从时序上看,湘鄂赣三省城镇用地扩张呈波动上涨趋势。1995—2000年期间,城镇用地扩张复合增长率较1990—1995年期间大幅减弱。这一现象可能与1995年前后国家实施的耕地保护政策,尤其是1994年出台的《基本农田保护条例》对建设用地占用耕地的强约束有关[33,34]。随后,湘鄂赣三省城镇用地扩张提速,2005—2010年期间,城镇用地扩张年均复合增长率高达6.62%。2010—2015年,受转型期社会经济减速与“生态文明建设”等国家战略影响,城镇用地扩张开始减速[35]。 Table 1 表1 表11990—2015年湘鄂赣三省城镇用地扩张统计 Table 1Modified urban land expansion for Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi Provinces from 2000 to 2015 (%)
时段/年
期初/期末城镇用地比例
城镇用地扩张规模
年均复合增长率
1990—1995
0.54/0.68
0.14
4.72
1995—2000
0.68/0.71
0.03
0.87
2000—2005
0.71/0.90
0.19
4.86
2005—2010
0.90/1.24
0.34
6.62
2010—2015
1.24/1.38
0.14
2.16
1990—2015
0.54/1.38
0.84
3.82
新窗口打开 从全域级别城镇用地扩张指数来看,研究期内湘鄂赣三省局部地区城镇用地扩张协同程度不高(表2)。但其城镇用地扩张态势总体良好,全域级别感观优劣度均值为1.1879,最大值高达6.0321,且呈较不理想扩张态势的县(市)仅占县(市)总数的22.32%。感观优劣度较低的区域主要分布于湘鄂东部与江西西部,长沙、南昌、武汉及十堰市表现较明显(图3a);湘鄂西部山区和江西省东南部感观优劣度较高,城镇用地扩张紧凑、有序。 Table 2 表2 表21990—2015年湘鄂赣三省全域级别城镇用地扩张自由度、蔓延度与感观优劣度统计 Table 2Statistics for overall degree-of-freedom, degree-of-sprawl and degree-of-goodness for urban land expansion of Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi Provinces from 1990 to 2015
扩张指数
最小值
最大值
均值
标准差
自由度
0.002 8
79.746 8
2.925 7
8.827 0
蔓延度
0.025 4
1.564 9
1.031 2
0.309 9
感观优劣度
-3.332 9
6.032 1
1.187 9
1.704 5
新窗口打开 显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT 图31990—2015年湘鄂赣三省多级城镇用地扩张感观优劣度分布示意 -->Figure 3Distributions of multi-level degree-of-goodness for urban land expansion of Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi provinces from 1990 to 2015 -->
3.2 省域级别
省域级别上,湖北所辖各县(市)具有相对较低的城镇用地扩张空间差异性,自由度最小值、最大值、均值及标准差均低于湖南和江西两省(表3)。湖南城镇用地扩张自由度最大值和标准差最高,城镇用地扩张空间协同程度相对较低。江西城镇用地扩张蔓延度均值(0.8875)低于湖北、湖南两省,感观优劣度均值(1.1933)高于湖南省,且标准差较低。湖北城镇用地扩张感观优劣度均值最高,扩张模式相对较优。进一步分析发现,感观优劣度较高的城市主要分布于湖北西南部和湖南西北部交界处;江西所辖各县(市)城镇用地扩张格局良好(图3b)。 Table 3 表3 表31990—2015年湘鄂赣三省省域级别城镇用地扩张指数统计 Table 3Statistics for provincial urban land expansion metrics of Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi Provinces from 1990 to 2015
城市群/非城市群级别测算结果表明,城市群所辖县、市城镇用地扩张空间差异性较强,自由度最大值、均值与标准差都高于非城市群地区(表4)。非城市群,即城市群所辖县、市以外的地区表现出相对良好的城镇用地扩张时序特征,蔓延度均值低于城市群地区。虽然城镇用地扩张蔓延度最大值和标准差在一定程度上高于城市群地区,非城市群地区依旧呈现出相对良好的城镇用地扩张态势,感观优劣度为负值的县(市)数及占湘鄂赣三省所辖县(市)总数的比例分别为24个和11.01%,明显低于城市群地区(44个,40.37%)。 Table 4 表4 表41990—2015年湘鄂赣三省城市群/非城市群级别城镇用地扩张指数统计 Table 4Statistics for inland/non metropolitan urban land expansion metrics of Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi Provinces from 1990 to 2015
湘鄂赣三省地级及以上城市级别城镇用地扩张自由度未现明显的“极化”现象,扩张协同程度较高(图3d)。城镇用地扩张时序波动性较弱,蔓延度较高的区域仅分布于邵阳、永州、湘潭和萍乡等地区,恩施、随州、鄂州、张家界所辖县(市)感观优劣度总体较高。与此同时,该级别下自由度、蔓延度均值总体低于其他级别,感观优劣度均值高于其他级别(表5)。上述分析显示了不同级别下县域城镇用地扩张格局的变异性,也进一步说明了小尺度、多级城镇用地扩张时空特征度量对发现复杂、特殊规律的理论与实践价值。 Table 5 表5 表51990—2015年湘鄂赣三省地级及以上城市级别城镇用地扩张指数统计 Table 5Statistics for city-level urban land expansion metrics of Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi Provinces from 1990 to 2015
多级城镇用地扩张度量结果表明,各县(市)城镇扩张确存在分异性。结果显示,自由度横向分异性呈现“城市群/非城市群>全域>地级及以上城市级别>省域级别”的总体格局,感观优劣度横向分异性则表现为“全域>城市群/非城市群>省域>地级市及以上城市级别”的趋势(表6)。而不具尺度依赖的蔓延度未在不同级别下的横向分异中有所差异。 Table 6 表6 表61990—2015年湘鄂赣三省多级别城镇用地扩张特征横向分异性 Table 6Horizontal variety of multi-level urban land expansion of Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi Provinces from 1990 to 2015
区域级别
自由度变异系数
蔓延度变异系数
感观优劣度变异系数
全域
3.002 7
0.300 1
1.445 7
省域
2.469 4
0.300 1
1.277 8
城市群/非城市群
3.266 8
0.300 1
1.346 7
地级及以上城市
2.476 0
0.300 1
0.914 4
新窗口打开 在纵向分异方面,蔓延度分异系数为0,这与方法部分所进行的理论分析一致。各县(市)多级城镇用地扩张自由度变异系数主要分布于[0.0,0.8]区间,纵向分异性较低(图4a)。自由度纵向分异较明显的县(市)多零星分布于湖北中西部、湖南西部和南部、江西中部。感观优劣度纵向分异性较强,最大值为12.3,变异系数高值区多分布于主要公路和铁路较为密度的地区,如武汉市及其周边区域、湖南省长株潭地区(图4b)。可见,将时序分析融入空间统计,其结果有利于发掘城镇用地扩张时空综合特征,进而增加区域城镇用地扩张分异规律的识别度。 显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT 图41990—2015年湘鄂赣三省多级城镇用地扩张自由度与感观优劣度纵向分异性示意 注:利用变异系数表征某一现象或数据的分异性时,主要依据变异系数的绝对值。为了便于分析,图中所展示感观优劣度变异系数为其绝对值。这一处理,并不影响结果及其分析的准确性。 -->Figure 4Vertical variety of multi-level degree-of-freedom and degree-of-goodness for urban land expansion of Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi provinces from 1990 to 2015 -->
需要说明的是,感观优劣度是自由度和蔓延度通过对数耦合的结果,该指数及其变异系数反映了城镇用地扩张这一时空耦合过程的综合特征与变异性。基于该指数及其纵向变异性,利用自然断点法,本文识别了湘鄂赣三省的城镇用地扩张模式(图5):感观优劣度变异系数呈正值且数值较大的县(市),总体呈良性城镇用地增长态势,但在不同级别扩张中所扮演的角色差异性较大,尚未形成稳定有序的增长格局,呈复合增长模式;感观优劣度变异系数呈负值且绝对值较大的县(市),总体呈较不理想的城镇用地蔓延态势,但在不同级别扩张中所扮演的角色差异性较大,未形成持续的蔓延格局,呈复合蔓延模式;感观优劣度变异系数呈负值且绝对值较小的县(市),总体呈不理想的城镇用地蔓延态势,且在不同级别扩张中所扮演的角色较为一致,呈持续蔓延模式;而感观优劣度变异系数为正值且绝对值较小的县(市),总体呈理想的城镇用地增长态势,且在不同级别扩张中所扮演的角色较为一致,为有序增长模式。 显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT 图51990—2015年湘鄂赣三省城镇用地扩张模式与典型扩张区分布示意 -->Figure 5Urban land expansion patterns and typical cities from Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi provinces from 1990 to 2015 -->
统计分析表明,有序增长和复合增长是湘鄂赣三省城镇用地扩张的主导模式,呈上述扩张模式的县(市)分别为157个和109个,占湘鄂赣三省县(市)总数的48.01%、33.33%(表7)。其中,郧西县、保康县、神农架林区、恩施市、建始县、来凤县、长阳土家族自治县、五峰土家族自治县、梁子湖区(鄂州市)、龙山县、永顺县、桑植县、慈利县、城步苗族自治县、铜鼓县、新建县等16个地区具有较高的感观优劣度,且扩张模式稳定,可作为城镇用地扩张示范区;长沙市雨花区等22个县(市)城镇用地扩张呈持续蔓延模式,雨花区、天元区、衡阳市、西湖区、江夏区表现最为突出;另有39个县(市)现复合蔓延模式,江夏表现明显。上述5个呈显著蔓延态势,或明显趋于不理想扩张模式的县(市),是未来城镇用地扩张的重点防治区。对比城市群、非城市群、山区及丘陵平原区城镇用地扩张模式后发现,有序增长模式主要分布于非城市群和山区,持续蔓延模式集中分布于城市群和丘陵平原区,而复合增长和复合蔓延模式则主要分布于非城市群和丘陵平原区。不难看出,非城市群、山区县(市)城镇用地扩张模式总体良好,城市群、丘陵平原区部分地区持续蔓延模式值得关注。 Table 7 表7 表71990—2015年湘鄂赣三省分区域城镇用地扩张模式频数统计 Table 7Frequencies for urban land sprawl patterns in different regions of Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi Provinces from 1990 to 2015
有序推进城镇用地扩张管控是湘鄂赣三省可持续发展应着力关注的重要课题。全面客观地认知城镇用地扩张这一时空过程的综合特征和复杂机理,是提升城镇用地扩张管控决策效率,以较好地规避时、空管控失调风险的重要基础。本文所构建的多级城镇用地扩张特征度量方法,为这一工作提供了参考。本研究的主要发现可为上述工作提供如下启示: (1)现行土地制度下,中国城镇用地扩张时空过程的差异主要是由“差别化”的城镇用地供应所导致。在“区域协同”和“生态文明建设”双重任务下,湘鄂赣三省应结合不同地区资源环境与社会经济状况及其所应承载的功能,努力促成理性的分级、分区城镇用地管控体系。一方面,强化对平原、城市群地区及重要生态用地与粮食主产区城镇用地利用强度的管控。另一方面,鼓励山区具备较好社会经济发展条件城市城镇用地适度开发和转型升级。 (2)当然,城镇用地扩张管控策略和工具的设计和应用,非一朝一夕能实现。以城镇用地扩张示范区和重点防治区为例,总结扩张示范区城镇用地开发利用和扩张管控经验,积极推进城镇用地扩张管控体系创新,并适时开展应用研究,不失为实现多级城镇用地扩张管控的可靠思路。 The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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