关键词:区域间投入产出表;碳排放强度;结构分解分析;直接碳排放系数效应;增加值系数效应;中间投入产出技术结构效应;最终需求总规模效应;中国 Abstract With the development of economic integration, the study of carbon emission reduction should take into account the relationships between regions. We analyzed carbon emission intensity and influence factors for China's eight regions from 2007 to 2012 based on China multi-regional input-output modeling(CMRIO) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA). We found that carbon emission intensity in the eight regions shows a steady downward trend, the central is the highest and the southern coast is the lowest. Carbon emission intensity of developed regions decreased less, while carbon emission intensity of the undeveloped regions decreased more. This means that carbon emission intensity of regions shows convergence. Due to improvements in energy-saving technology, capacity for independent innovation and adjustment of industrial structure, the effect of direct carbon emission coefficient, added value coefficient and intermediate inputs structure lead to a reduction in carbon emission intensity, while the effect of total final demand leads to an increment in carbon intensity. The contribution of the direct carbon emission coefficient to carbon emission intensity is the largest, while the contribution of the added value coefficient and intermediate inputs are lower. There are some differences in factors affecting carbon emission intensity in these regions. Policy should pay attention to the relationship between regions, strengthen carbon-reduction technology and research investment, breakthrough core technology restricting adjustments in industrial structure, and reduce dependence on high-carbon products.
Keywords:multi-regional input-output model;carbon emission intensity;structural decomposition analysis;direct carbon emission coefficient effect;added value coefficient effect;intermediate input-output structure effect;total final demand effect;China -->0 PDF (688KB)元数据多维度评价相关文章收藏文章 本文引用格式导出EndNoteRisBibtex收藏本文--> 尹伟华, 张亚雄, 李继峰, 徐丽萍, 王玢. 基于投入产出表的中国八大区域碳排放强度分析[J]. 资源科学, 2017, 39(12): 2258-2264 https://doi.org/10.18402/resci.2017.12.05 YINWeihua, ZHANGYaxiong, LIJifeng, XULiping, WANGBin. Decomposition of carbon emission intensity in China's eight regions according to CMRIO[J]. RESOURCES SCIENCE, 2017, 39(12): 2258-2264 https://doi.org/10.18402/resci.2017.12.05
首先根据中国区域间投入产出表和结构分解模型,测算出2007—2012年中国各区域碳排放强度及变动趋势,并据此解析影响中国区域碳排放强度的影响因素。2007年、2012年中国8个区域的碳排放强度如表1所示。 Table 1 表1 表12007—2012年中国8大区域碳排放强度及变化量 Table 1Intensity and variation of carbon emission in China's 8 regions from 2007 to 2012 (t/万元)
根据结构分解模型,可将中国区域碳排放强度变动的影响因素分解为碳排放系数效应、增加值系数效应、中间投入技术结构效应、最终需求规模效应四类,如果效应值为正则表明该影响因素抑制碳排放强度的降低,与此相反则促进碳排放强度的降低。具体因素分解结果如表2所示。 Table 2 表2 表22007—2012年中国8个区域碳排放强度结构分解效应 Table 2Structure decomposition of carbon emission intensity in China's 8 regions from 2007 to 2012 (t/万元)
上述结论为国家制定减排的相关政策提供了一定的借鉴。现有的碳减排政策纵向层次明显,主要是将碳减排任务从国家分解至地方,然而由于各区域间经济发展存在密切关联性,碳减排政策更应该注重区域间横向联合减排,避免产生不合理碳转移、碳泄漏等现象,进而影响全国整体的碳减排效果。同时,要攻克制约产业优化升级的核心技术,加强节能减排技术的研发和推广,减少中间投入中高碳性或资源性产品的依赖,进而对碳排放强度的上升起到抑制作用。 The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
[TanD,Huang XJ.Correlation analysis and comparison of the economic development and carbon emissions in the Eastern,Central and Western part of China [J]. ,2008,18(3):54-57.] [本文引用: 1]
[ Sun JW,Zhao RQ,Huang XJ,et al. Research on carbon emis-sion estimation and factor decomposition of China from 1995 to 2005 [J]. ,2010,25(8):1284-1295.] [本文引用: 1]
[Jiang XM,Liu YF.Research on the pattern change of carbon emission embodied in international trade and its determinants [J]. ,2013,30(9):29-36.] [本文引用: 1]
[XiaoH,Yang JH,Jiang XM.Analysis of change of complete carbon intensity and its determinants from the pers-pective of final demand [J]. ,2014,24(10):48-56.] [本文引用: 2]
[Zhuang ZM,WeiR.China’s carbon emission trend and its influential factors:an analysis based on non-competitive (import)input-output tables [J]. ,2014,(5):107-116.] [本文引用: 1]
[PangJ,Zhang JZ.Carbon emissions embodied in Sino-EU trade and the influence factors:an analysis based on MRIO and LMDI methods [J]. ,2014,30(11):51-65.] [本文引用: 1]
[Liu HG,Liu WD,Tang ZP,et al. The effect analysis of regional industry structure adjustment for CO2 emission reduction in China:on the base of inter-regional input-output method [J]. ,2010,29(3):129-135.] [本文引用: 1]
[Yin WH.The levels and ways of participation in global value chain of Chinese manufacturing-based on world input-output tables [J]. ,2015,(8):12-20.] [本文引用: 1]
[Yin WH.The participation mode and position in global value chain of China and Japan’s manufacturing industry-based on world input-output tables [J]. ,2016,36(5):100-112.] [本文引用: 1]