Measurement and spatial econometrics analysis of provincial industrial ecological efficiency in China
LUYanqun, YUANPeng School of Business Administration,Southwest University of Finance Economics,Chengdu 611130,China 通讯作者:通讯作者:袁鹏,E-mail:ypfeiyu@swufe.edu.cn 收稿日期:2016-09-20 修回日期:2017-01-5 网络出版日期:2017-07-20 版权声明:2017《资源科学》编辑部《资源科学》编辑部 基金资助:国家自然科学基金(71203018)中央高校基金项目(JBK160110)中央高校基金项目(JBK1607036) 作者简介: -->作者简介:卢燕群,女,四川宜宾人,博士生,主要研究方向为产业发展理论与政策。E-mail:luyanqun666@163.com
关键词:工业生态效率;数据包络模型;空间效应;空间计量 Abstract The VRS_DEA model was used to estimate industrial ecological efficiency for China's 30 provinces from 2005 to 2014. A spatial econometrics model was also used to test the influencing factors. We found that the industrial ecological efficiency of most provinces shows a trend of increasing fluctuation,and differences between the provinces are obvious. The spatial development pattern was one from western provinces to eastern provinces. Improvement in industrial development levels is beneficial to industrial ecological efficiency,and the capability of scientific and technological innovation have positive effects on industrial ecological efficiency. Environmental regulation,opening to the outside world and fiscal decentralization have significant negative effects on industrial ecological efficiency. Industrial agglomeration and industrial ecological efficiency follow an inverted U type relationship. Because of the co-existence of pollution emissions and economic benefits,the impact of industrial structure on industrial ecological efficiency is not significant,but the environmental pollution caused by change in industrial structure cannot be neglected. In addition,the spatial lag effect of industrial ecological efficiency is positive,indicating that local governments may learn from and imitate each other in environmental governance. The spatial lag effect of quadratic terms of industrial development is positive,while the spatial lag of fiscal decentralization is negative,and the spatial spillover effects of industrial structure are negative. The spatial lag of industrial agglomeration and industrial ecological efficiency follow a positive U type relationship,the effect on industrial ecological efficiency in adjacent areas was first inhibited and then promoted.
基于VRS_DEA测算模型,在测算过程中,采用了DEA-Windows模型处理面板数据的思路,将所有时期的样本汇总形成总的参考集进行效率测算,使效率值更具可比性[4],结果见表2。2005-2014年期间,大部分地区的工业生态效率呈现出波动向上的趋势。在2005年,全国工业生态效率均值为0.475,0.70以上的仅有海南、广东、青海等3个省市;到2014年,全国工业生态效率均值增加到0.553,0.70以上的省市增至包括广东、北京、天津、上海、山东、青海、江苏、海南等在内的8个省市,这反映中国工业生态效率整体上正在逐步改善。从工业生态效率的年均值来看,排名前五位的地区依次广东、海南、北京、天津、青海,均超过了0.70,其中,除青海以外全部位于东部区域;排名后五位的地区为广西、山西、云南、安徽、新疆,均位于中西部地区,工业生态效率年均值低于0.230(见表2)。 Table 2 表2 表22005-2014年中国大陆30省市工业生态效率水平 Table 2Industrial ecological efficiency of China's 30 provincial regions from 2005 to 2014
区域
省(市、区)
2005年
2006年
2007年
2008年
2009年
2010年
2011年
2012年
2013年
2014年
年均值
东北地区
辽宁
0.206
0.193
0.259
0.220
0.334
0.423
0.430
0.499
0.630
0.556
0.375
吉林
0.412
0.429
0.466
0.494
0.474
0.494
0.451
0.521
0.590
0.653
0.498
黑龙江
0.647
0.629
0.550
0.580
0.448
0.535
0.583
0.541
0.537
0.461
0.551
东部地区
北京
0.676
0.743
0.840
0.925
0.906
1.000
0.980
1.000
0.952
1.000
0.902
天津
0.577
0.545
0.635
0.702
0.737
0.685
0.775
0.852
1.000
1.000
0.751
河北
0.218
0.183
0.180
0.254
0.260
0.325
0.397
0.434
0.541
0.578
0.337
上海
0.622
0.634
0.675
0.671
0.661
0.672
0.689
0.757
0.825
0.871
0.708
江苏
0.527
0.514
0.610
0.631
0.646
0.629
0.488
0.557
0.651
0.735
0.599
浙江
0.636
0.605
0.591
0.628
0.614
0.629
0.630
0.659
0.723
0.294
0.601
福建
0.568
0.586
0.497
0.561
0.518
0.480
0.479
0.560
0.571
0.556
0.538
山东
0.488
0.532
0.499
0.526
0.542
0.522
0.642
0.711
0.779
0.830
0.607
广东
0.907
1.000
0.944
0.888
0.876
0.949
0.837
0.982
0.997
1.000
0.938
海南
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.972
0.845
1.000
0.855
0.782
0.868
0.732
0.905
西部地区
内蒙古
0.284
0.263
0.315
0.298
0.320
0.297
0.339
0.457
0.462
0.448
0.348
广西
0.232
0.245
0.201
0.248
0.240
0.263
0.155
0.175
0.245
0.297
0.230
重庆
0.462
0.283
0.290
0.341
0.303
0.380
0.521
0.602
0.573
0.560
0.432
四川
0.396
0.357
0.191
0.385
0.440
0.375
0.423
0.515
0.661
0.659
0.440
贵州
0.430
0.447
0.520
0.546
0.475
0.463
0.331
0.297
0.308
0.231
0.405
云南
0.340
0.307
0.276
0.290
0.264
0.270
0.179
0.220
0.221
0.227
0.259
陕西
0.454
0.481
0.461
0.353
0.333
0.329
0.359
0.443
0.469
0.482
0.416
甘肃
0.380
0.390
0.411
0.406
0.405
0.451
0.342
0.356
0.350
0.360
0.385
青海
0.798
0.807
0.790
0.818
0.695
0.654
0.690
0.677
0.724
0.739
0.739
宁夏
0.327
0.343
0.291
0.292
0.279
0.267
0.307
0.360
0.382
0.397
0.325
新疆
0.375
0.376
0.357
0.363
0.314
0.300
0.275
0.262
0.229
0.239
0.309
中部地区
山西
0.249
0.194
0.218
0.231
0.227
0.202
0.257
0.246
0.251
0.243
0.232
安徽
0.359
0.328
0.247
0.242
0.286
0.307
0.242
0.287
0.332
0.385
0.301
江西
0.486
0.468
0.444
0.404
0.419
0.425
0.302
0.354
0.371
0.396
0.407
河南
0.381
0.426
0.447
0.497
0.484
0.540
0.463
0.524
0.604
0.610
0.498
湖北
0.333
0.326
0.376
0.388
1.000
0.467
0.342
0.448
0.484
0.474
0.464
湖南
0.479
0.553
0.433
0.474
0.447
0.415
0.433
0.507
0.512
0.589
0.484
全国平均
0.475
0.473
0.467
0.488
0.493
0.492
0.473
0.520
0.561
0.553
0.499
新窗口打开 进一步地,本文按照《中国统计年鉴》[22]将全国分为东部、中部、西部和东北四大区域,分析工业生态效率的区域差异及变化趋势,见图1。东部地区省市的工业生态效率高于全国平均水平,在波动变化中呈现逐步上升的趋势;中、西部地区省市的工业生态效率值相差不大,呈现上下交替变化发展趋势,整体水平偏低;东北地区省份的工业生态效率总体上呈现上升趋势。2009年以后,东部、东北地区省份与中部和西部省份之间的工业生态效率发展差距较为稳定,而中部和西部省份工业生态效率基本处于相同水平。综上,中国工业生态效率的省域差异明显,呈现出自西向东逐渐加强的空间发展格局,这说明省域工业生态效率可能与地理位置之间存在显著的空间效应。因此,如果忽视地区之间的空间效应,可能导致影响因素的参数估计出现偏差,从而得出错误的结论。 显示原图|下载原图ZIP|生成PPT 图12005-2014年工业生态效率平均值的变化趋势 -->Figure 1Changes in average value of regional industrial efficiency from 2005 to 2014 -->
首先,应用传统面板回归技术对工业生态效率的影响因素进行检验,并考察残差是否存在显著的空间效应。为便于比较,本文给出了传统混合回归、个体固定与时间固定效应模型的估计结果,见表4。通过F检验发行个体固定效应更佳,且拟合优度更高,因此,个体固定效应模型更为可靠。通过LM检验发现个体固定效应的LM_spatial lag test和LM_spatial error test 的值均显著,空间效应明显。进一步通过Wald检验发现SDM模型不能退化为SLM或SEM模型,同时,SDM模型的拟合优度最高。因此,在本研究中,SDM模型的估计结果最为可靠,后文的分析将采用其估计结果(见表4)。 Table 4 表4 表4传统面板模型与SDM模型的估计结果 Table 4Estimated results of traditional panel models and SDM
本文采用VRS_DEA方法构建工业生态效率测算模型,考察了2005-2014年期间中国30个省市的工业生态效率动态变化及地区差异;在此基础上,构建了包含空间效应的SDM模型,实证检验了其影响因素。主要结论如下: (1)在研究期间,中国大部分省市的工业生态效率呈现出波动中上升的趋势。2005年工业生态效率超过0.70的省市仅有海南、广东、青海等3个,而2014年工业生态效率超过0.70的省市增至广东、北京、天津、上海、山东、青海、江苏、海南等8个。就工业生态效率均值而言,排名靠前的省市主要位于东部地区,而排名靠后的省市主要位于西部地区。 (2)从区域层面上来看,东部地区工业生态效率最高,高于全国平均水平,东北地区次之,中、西部地区工业生态效率存在交替变化,整体水平偏低。在2009年以后,东部、中部、西部地区与全国平均工业生态效率差距基本保持稳定,东北地区与全国平均工业生态效率水平基本一致。总体来看,中国工业生态效率的地区差异性明显,呈现出自西向东逐渐加强的空间变化趋势。 (3)实证结果表明,工业发展水平具有正向作用;科技创新有利于改善工业生态效率;环境规制、对外开放与财政分权的系数显著为负,没有达到改善生态效率的预期目标;产业集聚与工业生态效率呈现“倒U”型关系;工业结构影响不显著,可能是高污染行业所带来的污染与经济效应并存所致。此外,在空间交互作用方面,工业生态效率与工业发展水平二次项的空间滞后项系数显著为正;财政分权与工业结构具有显著负向的空间溢出效应;产业集聚的空间滞后项与工业生态效率呈现“正U”型关系。 根据实证分析的结论,本文提出以下政策建议: (1)充分发掘科技创新改善工业生态效率的潜力。既然科技创新能够显著提高工业生态效率,那就意味应该继续坚持“科教兴国”战略,推进创新体系建设,加快科技成果转化,同时通过财税、政府采购等方面的政策鼓励企业加大研发投入,强化自主研发、技术引进以及技术改造投入力度,切实降低生产过程中的资源消耗,可以有效减少工业污染物的排放强度和总量,提升工业生态效率。 (2)转换环境污染的治理路径,强化政府环境监督管理制度,切实提升工业污染治理效率。主要是从产业源头上提高环保标准以及执行力度,促使企业技术创新,优化工业内部结构,转变经济发展方式,才能消除环境污染物排放过量的源头达到节能减排目的,而不是一味地采取先污染后治理的末端治理方式。 (3)从财政分权与环境污染的角度来看,首先要改变单一的GDP考核准则,完善地方政府的考核机制,设计包含科技、人才、环境等因素的多指标考核体系,激励政府在自身利益最大化中谋求经济增长与环境保护,扭转地方政府为实现经济增长而牺牲环境的恶性竞争局面;其次,完善财政预算体制,形成有利于环境改善的硬约束体制,保障地方政府在环境保护上的财力支出。 (4)客观、动态地看待产业集聚与工业生态效率的关系,针对不同地区制定差异性政策。产业集聚与自身工业生态效率呈现“倒U”型关系,与相邻地区工业生态效率呈现“正U”型关系,因此各个地区要合理地引导产业转移,防止集聚度过高引发的外部规模不经济对经济和环境产生负面影响,通过引导产业的适度集聚发挥集聚经济效应的同时,实现经济与环境协同发展的目标。 The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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