邵志刚,,
刘琦,
魏文薪,
尹晓菲
中国地震局地震预测研究所, 北京 100036
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1500501)资助
详细信息
作者简介: 王芃, 男, 1985年生, 助理研究员, 2014年博士毕业于中国科学院广州地球化学研究所, 主要从事综合地震概率预测方面研究.E-mail:stonite@ief.ac.cn
通讯作者: 邵志刚, 男, 1977年生, 研究员, 2007年博士毕业于中国科学技术大学, 主要从事地球动力学与地震活动性方面的研究.E-mail:shaozg0911@126.com
中图分类号: P315收稿日期:2018-06-13
修回日期:2019-01-11
上线日期:2019-09-05
Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes based on multidisciplinary physical observations and its application in Sichuan and Yunnan
WANG Peng,SHAO ZhiGang,,
LIU Qi,
WEI WenXin,
YIN XiaoFei
Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China
More Information
Corresponding author: SHAO ZhiGang,E-mail:shaozg0911@126.com
MSC: P315--> Received Date: 13 June 2018
Revised Date: 11 January 2019
Available Online: 05 September 2019
摘要
摘要:川滇地区是我国地震灾害最为严重的地区之一，地震灾害评估对该地区的防震减灾具有重要意义，概率地震危险性分析是量化地震危险性的有效手段.这一方法要求使用可获得的最佳资料来计算地震的长期发生率.通过对比美国加州地区与我国川滇地区积累的资料发现，目前川滇地区的资料积累水平与加州地区正在使用的第三版加州地震破裂预测模型（UCERF3）的要求还有差距，但已可进行多学科综合地震概率计算.通过收集川滇地区地震地质、大地测量和测震学等资料，计算了川滇菱形块体及周边地区不同震级地震的长期发生率，在此基础上给出了未来30年泊松与非泊松分布下峰值地表加速度超越概率的分布.结果显示，在目标峰值加速度较低时，鲜水河断裂带、安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂带、小江断裂带、红河断裂带和小金河断裂带等川滇菱形块体主要边界带均具有较高的超越概率；在目标峰值加速度较高时，川滇菱形块体东边界的鲜水河断裂带、小江断裂带北段和南段以及莲峰—昭通断裂带仍具有较高的超越概率，但其中安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂带和小江断裂带中段概率相对较低.最后通过将本研究的结果与前人结果对比，讨论了结果异同的原因.
关键词: 川滇菱形块体/
多学科资料/
综合地震概率预测/
峰值地表加速度
Abstract:Sichuan and Yunnan are among the areas with most severe seismic hazard in China, thus hazard estimation is significant to earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is an effective tool for quantifying seismic hazard, which requires the "best available science" to calculate the mean rate of earthquakes. Compared with data in California, the data in Sichuan and Yunnan is somehow limited, which is insufficient to build a counterpart of the currently used third version of Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast model (UCERF3). However, it is adequate to carry out a multidisciplinary approach. By gathering geologic, geodetic and seismologic data in the area, we calculated the magnitude-frequency distribution. By applying Poisson and Non-Poisson model, we obtained the patterns of peak ground acceleration (PGA) exceeding rate. The result show that, when the target PGA is low, the main boundaries of Sichuan and Yunnan Diamond Zone all have high exceeding rate, such as Xianshuihe Fault Zone, Anninghe Fault Zone, Zemuhe Fault Zone, Xiaojiang Fault Zone, Honghe Fault Zone and Xiaojinhe Fault Zone; when the target PGA is high, Xianshuihe Fault Zone, Northern and Southern sections of Xiaojiang Fault Zone and Lianfeng-Zhaotong Fault Zone in the eastern boundary of Sichuan and Yunnan Diamond Zone still have moderate to high exceeding rate, but the rates in Anninghe Fault Zone, Zemuhe Fault Zone and central section of Xiaojiang Fault Zone are relatively low. Finally, we compared the result of our research with that of predecessors, and discussed the possible reasons of differences and similarities between the results.
Key words:Sichuan and Yunnan diamond zone/
Multidisciplinary data/
Comprehensive probabilistic earthquake forecast/
Peak Ground Acceleration
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