朱信国^1,,
严蜜^1,2,3,,,
宁亮^1,2,3,
刘健^1,2,4
1. 南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室/江苏省地理环境演化国家重点实验室培育建设点/江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心, 南京师范大学地理科学学院, 江苏南京, 210023
2. 青岛海洋科学与技术试点国家实验室海洋-气候-同位素模拟开放工作室, 山东青岛, 266237
3. 中国科学院地球环境研究所, 黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室, 陕西西安, 710061
4. 江苏省大规模复杂系统数值模拟重点实验室, 南京师范大学数学科学学院, 江苏南京, 210023

基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目（批准号：2016YFA0600401）、国家自然科学基金项目（批准号：41671197、42075049、41971108和41971021）、中国科学院地球环境研究所黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放自主基金项目（批准号：SKLLQG1930和SKLLQG1820）和江苏省高校优势学科建设项目（批准号：164320H116）共同资助


详细信息

作者简介: 朱信国, 男, 23岁, 硕士研究生, 古气候模拟研究, E-mail: zhuxinguo2@163.com

通讯作者: 严蜜, E-mail: myan@njnu.edu.cn

中图分类号: P467;P468

收稿日期:2020-10-17
修回日期:2021-01-06
刊出日期:2021-03-30

Simulation of the relationship between East Asian winter and summer monsoon in three typical periods over the past millennium

ZHU Xinguo^1,,
YAN Mi^1,2,3,,,
NING Liang^1,2,3,
LIU Jian^1,2,4
1. Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of Education; State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution of Jiangsu Province; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application; School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu
2. Open Studio for the Simulation of Ocean-Climate-Isotope, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao 266237, Shandong
3. State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Science, Xi'an 710061, Shaanxi
4. Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory for Numerical Simulation of Large Scale Complex Systems, School of Mathematical Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu


More Information

Corresponding author: YAN Mi,E-mail:myan@njnu.edu.cn

MSC: P467;P468

--> Received Date: 17 October 2020
Revised Date: 06 January 2021
Publish Date: 30 March 2021


摘要
摘要:使用美国大气研究中心开展的过去千年集合模拟试验（Community Earth System Model-Last Millennium Ensemble，简称CESM-LME）数据，对过去千年（公元850~2005年）3个重要的特征时期——中世纪气候异常期、小冰期和现代暖期的东亚冬、夏季风关系，尤其是年代-多年代尺度上的关系进行了对比研究。结果表明：在年代和多年代尺度上，由自然外强迫主导的中世纪气候异常期和小冰期及人类活动主导的现代暖期，东亚冬、夏季风均呈负位相变化形势，但影响二者关系的机制在3个时期并不相同。研究发现，太平洋年代际振荡（Pacific Decadal Oscillation，简称PDO）可能是造成前两个特征时期东亚冬、夏季风反位相变化的主要原因，大西洋多年代际振荡（Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation，简称AMO）的作用相对较小。现代暖期AMO的作用有所加强，与PDO的作用相当，同时夏季风环流对PDO和AMO的响应较前两个时期强，且响应特征有所不同，这可能与人类活动有较大关系。另外在人类活动作用下，季风指数的定义方法可能会对季风关系的研究结果产生影响，这是未来预估研究中需要留意的地方。
关键词: 东亚夏季风/
东亚冬季风/
特征时期/
过去千年

Abstract:Being the most complicated monsoon circulation of the world, East Asian monsoon contains two components, winter monsoon(EAWM) and summer monsoon(EASM). Studying the interaction and relationship between EAWM and EASM has its practical importance to the predictability of East Asian(5°~55°N, 100°~140°E) climate change. A set of transient simulations over the last millennium(CESM-LME) is utilized to study the EAWM-EASM relation, mainly on the decadal-multidecadal time scale. The EAWM-EASM relation is analyzed and compared in the three typical periods over the last millennium(850~2005 A.D.), namely the Medieval Climate Abnormal (MCA), the Little Ice Age(LIA) and the Present Warm Period(PWP). The results show robust negative relationship between EAWM and EAWM, both during the natural-forcing dominated periods (MCA and LIA) and the anthropogenic-forcing dominated period(PWP). On the decadal (multidecadal) time scale, the correlation coefficients between EAWM and EASM are -0.54(-0.64) in MCA, -0.39(-0.45) in LIA and -0.40(-0.48) in PWP. The negative correlations are mainly related to the internal variabilities, the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO). However, the mechanisms behind the EAWM-EASM relationships are not the same in the three periods. It is found that during the first two periods(MCA and LIA), the PDO might be the main factor that cause the anti-phase between EAWM and EASM, when the role of AMO is relatively small. The role of AMO gets strengthened in PWP. Meanwhile, the response of EASM circulation to PDO and AMO is stronger in PWP than that in MCA and LIA, with different responding patterns. In MCA and LIA, the summer monsoon circulation over East Asia shows uniform response to PDO and AMO, whereas in PWP, it shows north-south contradictory responding patterns. The different responding patterns of EASM circulation to the PDO and AMO might be modulated by the anthropogenic forcings, such as land use/land cover changes, greenhouse gases and aerosols, which requires further study. Additionally, different monsoon indices, which show consistent EAWM-EASM relationship in MCA and LIA, show different EAWM-EASM relationship in PWP, however. Therefore, one should be very careful to choose EAWM and EASM definition methods in future predictions, especially those under the anthropogenic forcings.
Key words:EastAsian summer monsoon/
East Asian winter monsoon/
typical periods/
last millennium



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