冷姗^1,,
张仲石^1,2,3,
戴高文¹
1. 中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院大气科学系, 湖北 武汉 430074
2. 中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心, 北京 100029
3. Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 70, Bergen 5007, Norway

基金项目: 国家重点研究发展计划项目（批准号：2018YFA0605602）、国家自然科学基金项目（批准号：41472160、41402158和41305073）、青年千人项目和挪威研究理事会OCCP、PEGSIE项目共同资助


详细信息

作者简介: 冷姗, 女, 25岁, 硕士研究生, 从事古气候模拟研究, E-mail:373977040@qq.com

中图分类号: P467;P534.63;P532

收稿日期:2019-03-03
修回日期:2019-07-11
刊出日期:2019-11-30

Two climate model simulation of MIS 5e climate in China

Leng Shan^1,,
Zhang Zhongshi^1,2,3,
Dai Gaowen¹
1. Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, Hubei
2. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029
3. Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, All égaten 70, Bergen 5007, Norway


MSC: P467;P534.63;P532

--> Received Date: 03 March 2019
Revised Date: 11 July 2019
Publish Date: 30 November 2019


摘要
摘要:理解历史时期气候变化的现象和机制，对预测未来气候变化有重要的启示意义。过去多个间冰期中，末次间冰期最暖期（MIS 5e）被认为是研究未来气候变化的典型时期。我们利用NorESM-L和CESM两个气候模式对MIS 5e开展数值模拟研究。模拟结果揭示，由地球轨道参数导致的太阳辐射变化是造成MIS 5e温暖气候的主导因素。在我国，与工业革命前相比，MIS 5e年平均地表温度降低、夏季升高、冬季降低；年降水量和夏季降水量在中部地区减少、其他地区增加，冬季降水量一致减少。与地质记录重建的年平均结果相比，模拟结果整体上比代用资料重建偏冷、偏干。这种模拟与地质记录重建之间的差异可能由以下因素导致：地球系统模式的模拟方案存在简化、古气候代用指标的气候意义存在多解性、模拟的地表温度和降水与代用指标重建结果之间的对比存在不确定性。如何减小模拟与重建记录对比的差异，这仍需在今后的研究中不断探索。
关键词: MIS 5e/
NorESM-L/
CESM/
气候模拟

Abstract:Understanding the phenomena and mechanisms of climate change in the past are important implications for predicting future climate change. In the past multiple interglacial periods, the last interglacial warmest period (MIS 5e) considered to be a typical period to study future climate change. We use NorESM-L (Norwegian Earth System Model Version 1) and CESM (Community Earth System Model) to study MIS 5e. Firstly, the results reveal that changes in the Earth's orbital parameters are the dominant factors contributing to climate change in MIS 5e. Secondly, in China, compared with the pre-industrial period, the MIS 5e simulation results of the two climate models on the surface temperature are lower in annual average and winter, higher in summer. The annual precipitation and summer precipitation changes are less in middle areas, more in other areas, and winter precipitation is less in all places. However, compare with the annual average results of reconstruction, our simulation is colder and drier. The possible factors that cause the difference between simulation and geological record reconstruction are:the simplification of some simulation schemes of the Earth system model, multiple resolution of climatic meaning indicated by paleoclimate proxy index, the simulation results and the index reconstruction results may be parameters of different meanings. Finally, how to reduce the difference between numerical simulation and geological record reconstruction still needs to be explored in the future.
Key words:MIS 5e/
NorESM-L/
CESM/
climate simulation



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