摘要:基于CMIP5多模式中的历史情景与全球变暖情景资料以及观测海温数据，利用EOF分析，回归分析、功率谱分析等方法对北太平洋区域冬季海—气耦合系统进行了研究，进而分析了全球变暖背景下太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）时空特征的变化。通过对比观测资料中1934年前后的PDO时空特征，发现在全球变暖的背景下，PDO强度得到加强，PDO模态的频率向高频移动（周期变短）；再用泰勒图分析方法和功率谱分析方法评估13个CMIP5模式对20世纪太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）的模拟能力；在此基础上，选取评估良好以上的9种模式对比分析不同增暖情景下的PDO时空特征变化，发现模式中PDO对全球变暖的响应与观测结果基本一致。
关键词:全球变暖/
PDO/
CMIP5/
EOF/
功率谱分析
Abstract:In this paper, based on historical and global warming scenarios and observed sea temperature data in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel, changes in the space–time characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were analyzed. Empirical orthogonal function, regression, and power spectrum analyses were used to study the winter sea–air coupled system in the North Pacific region. Comparing the spatiotemporal characteristics of the PDO from the observed data for the periods 1850–1934 and 1934–2017, we found that, under the background of global warming, the intensity of the PDO is strengthened, and the frequency of the PDO mode is shifted to high frequency (the period is shorter). Then Taylor diagram analysis and power spectrum analysis were used to evaluate the simulation ability of 13 CMIP5 models of the PDO in the 20th century. On this basis, nine well-evaluated models were selected to compare and analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the PDO under different warming scenarios. The response of PDO to global warming in the model was consistent with the observed results.
Key words:Global warming/
Pacific Decadal Oscillation/
Coupled model intercomparison project phase 5/
Empirical orthogonal function/
Power spectrum analysis
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