摘要:选择北京市为研究地区，对2014～2017年AERONET（Aerosol Robotic Network）提供的CE-318太阳光度计440 nm波段反演的气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）进行风速订正，对订正后 AOD 日均数据与同期地面监测站PM2.5日均浓度数据做季节相关性分析并建立回归模型。又引入能见度因子并利用广义差分法构建2015～2017年北京市AOD与PM2.5浓度、能见度的三元回归模型，最后将2014年数据分为污染日和非污染日分别进行模型检验。结果表明：AOD与PM2.5浓度存在显著的线性正相关性，且存在季节性差异，夏季相关性最强、秋季次之、春季和冬季最低。引入能见度因子并消除自相关后，四季的模型相对误差均显著减小，模型拟合优度显著提高。检验结果为四季整体的平均相对误差在21%～31%范围内，与前人的结果相比拟合曲线的准确性得到了明显地提高。且模型对低PM2.5浓度日的模拟效果较好，对于高PM2.5浓度日的模拟效果较差。本研究对构建北京地区PM2.5浓度长期的历史数据具有重要的科学意义。
关键词:北京市/
气溶胶光学厚度/
PM2.5/
能见度/
相关性
Abstract:In this study, Beijing is selected as the research area to perform wind speed correction of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) data of the 440 nm band inversion of the CE-318 solar photometer provided by AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) in 2014–2017. Then, the seasonal correlation analysis and modeling of the corrected daily average AOD data and the same period ground monitoring station daily average PM2.5 concentration data are conducted. Then, the visibility factor is introduced and the generalized difference method is used to construct the ternary regression model of AOD, PM2.5, and visibility in Beijing from 2015 to 2017. Finally, the data of 2014 are divided into pollution and nonpollution days for the model tests. Results show a significant linear positive correlation between AOD and PM2.5. Moreover, the seasonal differences exhibit the strongest correlation in summer, followed by that in autumn, and the weakest correlation in spring and winter. After introducing the visibility factor and eliminating the autocorrelation, the relative error of the model in the four seasons is reduced, the goodness of fit of the model significantly improved, and the relative error ranges from 21% to 31%. Compared with the previous results, the accuracy of curve fitting has been significantly improved. Moreover, the simulation effect of the model is good for low PM2.5 concentration days but poor for high PM2.5 concentration days. This study is of scientific significance for the construction of the long-term historical data of PM2.5 in Beijing.
Key words:Beijing/
Aerosol optical depth/
PM2.5/
Visibility/
Correlation
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