摘要:从初始误差、模式误差以及两者综合影响的角度，综述了天气、气候集合预报方法的研究进展，指出了传统方法的优势，同时也评论了这些方法的局限性，提出了对未来先进集合预报方法的一些思考，以及需要解决的挑战性问题和可能的应用。
关键词:初始误差/
模式误差/
集合预报
Abstract:This article reviews the research progress of ensemble forecast methods for weather and climate from the perspective of initial errors, model errors, and the combined effects of the above two. The authors clarify the advantages of traditional methods; meanwhile, they comment on the limitations of these methods. Finally, the authors propose some ideas on developing more advanced ensemble forecast methods, raise some challenging problems that need to be resolved, and address possible applications of the ensemble methods.
Key words:Initial error/
Model error/
Ensemble forecast
PDF全文下载地址:
http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/qhhj/article/exportPdf?id=18133
