摘要:基于历史观测资料，系统地研究了广东省热带气旋（tropical cyclone，TC）风雨及其带来的直接经济损失的空间分布特征。结果表明，粤西沿海地区受TC大风影响最为频繁，但TC经济灾损率和受灾频次在粤西和粤东较重。根据广东省TC风雨和直接经济损失的空间分布特征，将广东分为粤西、粤东、珠三角和粤北4个区域，进而利用演化建模方法建立了广东省各区域TC经济灾损率评估模型。该评估模型模拟的TC经济灾损率与实际值的相关系数达0.66以上，基于该模型对独立样本的预测检验结果与实际值的相关系数达到0.61以上（显著性水平a=0.05）。这表明，基于演化建模方法建立的广东省各区域评估模型在广东省TC灾害评估中有着潜在的应用价值。
关键词:热带气旋灾害评估/
县域单元/
经济灾损率/
人口受灾率/
演化建模
Abstract:The spatial distribution characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall and direct economic losses incurred by TCs in Guangdong Province are systematically studied based on historical observation data. The results show that the coastal areas of western Guangdong are most frequently affected by TC winds, whereas the economic loss rates and disaster frequencies are much larger in the southwestern and eastern seashore areas of Guangdong. According to the spatial distribution characteristics of TC precipitation, high winds and rate of economic loss, Guangdong Province is divided into four regions. The evolutionary modeling method is then used to build the assessment model of TC economic loss rate in each region. The correlation coefficient between the simulated TC economic loss rate and the actual value is larger than 0.66, and the correlation coefficient between the pre-evaluation results and the actual values of independent samples reaches above 0.61 (significant at the level of a=0.05). This result shows that the regional assessment model based on the evolutionary modeling method has potential application value in the assessment of TC disaster in Guangdong Province.
Key words:Tropical cyclones disaster assessment/
County unit/
Economic loss rate/
Affected people rate/
Evolutionary modeling
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