doi:10.12202/j.0476-0301.2020349李鸿雁^,,
王凡,
刘莹莹,
赵红玲,
鲍珊珊,
常凯洋,
冶雪艳
吉林大学新能源与环境学院，吉林大学地下水资源与环境教育部重点实验室，吉林省水资源与水环境重点实验室，130012，吉林长春
基金项目:吉林省科技厅社会发展领域重点研发计划（20200403070SF）；“水资源高效开发利用”国家重点研发计划资助项目（2017YFC0406005）；吉林省科技厅基础研究资助项目（20180101078JC）

详细信息

通讯作者:李鸿雁（1968—），女，博士，教授. 研究方向：流域水文预报. E-mail：lihongyan@jlu.edu.cn

中图分类号:P641

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出版历程

收稿日期:2020-10-04
网络出版日期:2021-05-21
刊出日期:2021-06-30

Shallow groundwater level under climate change conditions in the Taoer River plain

Hongyan LI^,,
Fan WANG,
Yingying LIU,
Hongling ZHAO,
Shanshan BAO,
Kaiyang CHANG,
Xueyan YE
College of New Energy and Environment, Jilin University, Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment (Jilin University), Ministry of Education, Jilin Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Jilin University, 130012, Changchun, Jilin, China



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摘要
摘要:利用研究区降水、气温、地表水径流和地下水埋深数据，使用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法，分析水文气象要素变化趋势，结合研究区水文地质概况，建立地下水数值模型，对未来气候变化下的地下水水位动态进行预测．结果表明：研究区地下水埋深呈显著增加趋势，降水量增加不显著，气温呈升高趋势，地表径流显著减少；通过建立的Visual MODFLOW模型，对基准情景（基准期平均降水量条件）和3种气候情景（SSP126、SSP245、SSP585）下研究区未来地下水位进行预测：基准情景和3种气候情景下研究区北部浅层地下水埋深持续增加，南部地下水埋深有所减少；3种气候情景下地下水埋深均大于基准情景下地下水位埋深．
关键词:洮儿河流域平原区/
地下水埋深/
CMIP6/
Visual MODFLOW
Abstract:Data of precipitation, temperature, surface water runoff, groundwater depth were applied to Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, to analyze variation trend in hydrological and meteorological elements．Hydrogeological overview in the study area was combined with groundwater numerical model to predict groundwater level dynamics．Groundwater depth in the study area was found to have increased significantly, precipitation did not increase, but air temperature increased, surface runoff decreased significantly．Visual MODFLOW model was used to predict future groundwater level under base scenario (mean precipitation conditions in the base period) and three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585)．Shallow groundwater depth in the north of the study area was found to continue to increase under baseline scenario and three climate scenarios, but groundwater depth in the south decreased．Groundwater depth under the three climate scenarios was found to be greater than groundwater depth under baseline scenario．
Key words:Taoer River plain/
groundwater level depth/
CMIP6/
visual MODFLOW