尹超^1,2,3, 黄海军^1,2, 王道儒³, 谢琳³
1.中国科学院海洋研究所, 山东 青岛 266071;2.中国科学院大学, 北京 100049;3.海南省海洋与渔业科学院, 海南 海口 571126

摘要:
随着海南深水网箱养殖规模的不断扩大，海浪精细化预报的需求越来越紧迫。以海南岛周边海域为目标区域，基于近岸海洋模式ADCIRC （Advanced circulation model）和海浪模式SWAN （Simulating Waves Nearshore），建立了海南岛近岸养殖区台风浪数值预报系统。该系统采用非结构高分辨率网格，近岸分辨率达到了100 m。选取2014年第9号超强台风“威马逊”（RAMMASUN）进行针对海南岛近岸养殖区的台风浪数值模拟后报。模拟结果与实测数据较为吻合。采用全球预报系统GFS （Global Forecast System）风场和气压场数据作为驱动场对2018年7月的一次热带风暴过程进行预报，48小时、24小时预报的有效波高和实测结果比较平均相对误差分别为20.75%和17.0%。总体来说，该模型的预报精度可以满足近岸养殖区台风浪预报业务的需求。
关键词:台风浪预报ADCIRC+SWAN海南岛近岸养殖GFS
DOI：10.11759/hykx20190330002
分类号:P734.3;O657.3
基金项目:海南省重大科技计划项目（ZDKJ2016013）；海南科研院所技术开发专项（TV45987）

Storm wave forecasting technique for the nearshore aquaculture area of Hainan Island
YIN Chao^1,2,3, HUANG Hai-jun^1,2, WANG Dao-ru³, XIE Lin³
1.Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Science, Qingdao 266071, China;2.University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;3.Hainan Academy of Ocean and Fisheries Sciences, Haikou 571126, China
Abstract:
With the rapid expansion of the deep sea net cage scale in Hainan Island, the need for refined storm wave forecasting is increasingly urgent. Based on the coastal ocean model ADCIRC(Advanced circulation model) and wave model SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore), this study established a storm wave forecasting system for the coastal aquaculture areas of Hainan Island, China. This system adopted an unstructured grid with a high resolution and a nearshore resolution up to 100 m. We hindcasted storm waves during the No. 9 typhoon RAMMASUN in 2014 for the coastal aquaculture areas of Hainan Island. Results obtained were in agreement with the measured data. Additionally, we examined the accuracy of the storm wave forecast for a tropical storm process in July 2018 by using forecasted winds at the height of 10 m above mean sea level and pressure data from the GFS (Global Forecast System). Average relative errors of 48 h and 2 h significant wave heights' forecast were 20.75% and 17.0%, respectively. Overall, forecasting accuracy was within acceptable range and this system could satisfy the storm wave forecasting demands of the coastal aquaculture area.
Key words:storm wave forecastingADCIRC+SWANHainan Islandcoastal aquacultureGFS





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