) 西安理工大学 省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室,西安 710048
收稿日期:2021-07-30出版日期:2021-12-28发布日期:2021-12-30通讯作者:明波E-mail:mingbo@xaut.edu.cn作者简介:黄 强(1958-),男,四川省绵阳市人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事清洁能源多能互补运行研究.基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(51879213);国家自然科学基金项目(52009098);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405900);博士后创新人才支持计划项目(BX20200276)Development Pathway of China’s Clean Electricity Under Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals
HUANG Qiang, GUO Yi, JIANG Jianhua, MING Bo() State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of China, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China
Received:2021-07-30Online:2021-12-28Published:2021-12-30Contact:MING Bo E-mail:mingbo@xaut.edu.cn摘要/Abstract
摘要： 目前,第三次能源革命已经开始,为了减少碳排放,发达国家先后制定了清洁能源发展战略,并公布了放弃火电、核电的时间表.与此同时,中国也向世界作出承诺:2030年前碳排放达峰,2060年实现碳中和.因此,在“双碳”目标下,研究清洁电力发展路径具有重要意义.分析了中国水、风、光等清洁能源储量及其特征,预测了中长期电力需求,依据电力电量平衡原理,估算了2030和2050规划水平年电力系统结构组成,并分析了未来CO2排放趋势,提出了未来中国清洁电力的发展对策与建议.结果表明:预计2027年中国电力系统将实现“碳达峰”;2030年中国清洁电力发电量将超过总发电量的50%;2050年火电、核电将被水、风、光等清洁电力全部取代,电力行业将实现CO2的“零排放”,基本全面实现电力系统的绿色转型,以响应国家的“双碳”目标.
关键词: 清洁电力, 碳排放, 水-风-光-储互补运行, 电力电量平衡, 发展对策
Abstract: Nowadays, the third energy revolution has taken place. Many developed countries have formulated clean energy development strategies and announced the time for phasing out thermal and nuclear power to reduce carbon emissions. Meanwhile, China has made a commitment to the world that the carbon emissions of China will peak before 2030, and the carbon neutrality will be achieved before 2060. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the development pathway of clean electricity of China. The reserves and characteristics of clean energy such as hydro, wind, and solar in China are analyzed. The medium and long-term power demand of China is projected, and the power system structure in 2030 and 2050 are respectively estimated based on the electric power and energy balance equations. In addition, the trend of carbon emissions is also analyzed. Some suggestions are proposed to guide the development of China’s clean electricity. The results indicate that the “carbon peaking” of China’s power system would arrive in 2027, and the clean electricity of China is projected to exceed 50% of the total energy production in 2030. Thermal and nuclear power can be replaced by clean electricity such as hydro, wind, and solar energy in 2050, the power industry will achieve “zero CO2 emission”, and the transformation of the green power system will be achieved in response to carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.
Key words: clean electricity, carbon emission, hydro-wind-photovoltaic-storage complementary operation, electric power and energy balance, development strategy
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