Publication in refereed journal
香港中文大学研究人员 ( 现职)
| 叶家兴教授 (金融学系) |
| 苏伟文博士 |
| 范健强教授 (工商管理学院) |
全文
| 数位物件识别号 (DOI) http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11156-006-7212-1 |
引用次数
Scopushttp://aims.cuhk.edu.hk/converis/portal/Publication/8Scopus source URL
其它资讯
摘要Several trends in the insurance and financial services industry, including demutualizationconsolidation, and deregulation, have attracted increasing attention from investors and financial analysts. This paper investigates the accuracy of the earnings forecasts of financial analysts for insurance companies. Our empirical results indicate that analyst forecasts outperform random walk time-series forecasts. Furthermore, we find that both disagreement over earnings forecasts among analysts and the relative forecasting error in the mean forecasts is smaller for life insurers than for property-casualty insurers, whereas the relative errors for forecasts for multiple-line insurers are in between the two. Forecasting error is a negative function of firm size and the number of analysts who are following a company, and is a positive function of the disagreement among analysts.Analyst forecasts have a timing advantage over the random walk model. Our results also suggest that the fair value reporting requirement (SFAS 115), which has been in effect since 1994, has enhanced the accuracy of analyst forecasts. The SFAS 115 has improved the superiority of analyst forecasts over the random walk forecasts for life insurers, but not for property-casualty insurers, and there is a weak improvement for multiple-line insurers. ? 2006 Springer Science + Business Media, Inc.
着者Fan D.K.K., So R.W., Yeh J.J.
期刊名称Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting
出版年份2006
月份3
日期1
卷号26
期次2
出版社Western Academic Publishers
出版地United States
页次105 - 136
国际标準期刊号0924-http://aims.cuhk.edu.hk/converis/portal/Publication/865X
电子国际标準期刊号1573-7179
语言英式英语
关键词Analyst forecasts, Fair value reporting, Insurance companies
