Heating load interval forecasting approach based on support vector regression and error estimation

ZHANG Yong-ming, YU De-liang, QI Wei-gui

Dept.of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150001,China



Abstract:

As the existing heating load forecasting methods are almostly point forecasting,an interval forecasting approach based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) and interval estimation of relative error is proposed in this paper.The forecasting output can be defined as energy saving control setting value of heating supply substation;meanwhile,it can also provide a practical basis for heating dispatching and peak load regulating operation.By means of the proposed approach,SVR model is used to point forecasting and the error interval can be gained by using nonparametric kernel estimation to the forecast error,which avoid the distributional assumptions.Combining the point forecasting results and error interval,the forecast confidence interval is obtained.Finally,the proposed model is performed through simulations by applying it to the data from a heating supply network in Harbin,and the results show that the method can meet the demands of energy saving control and heating dispatching.

Key words:  heating supply energy-saving  load forecasting  support vector regression  nonparametric kernel estimation  confidence interval

DOI£º10.11916/j.issn.1005-9113.2011.04.019

Clc Number:TU831.2

Fund: