摘要:随着“能力”、“风险”等概念在贫困研究领域的应用，脆弱性以前瞻性的视角成为目前贫困研究的热点。基于可持续生计的脆弱性研究可以有效识别贫困农户中的脆弱群体，指导农村扶贫政策的制定和调整。本文以风险-生计资本-适应能力为界面构建贫困农户的脆弱性评价指标，运用综合指数法重点分析收入、受教育水平、户主年龄及生计资本等因素对农户生计和脆弱性的影响，为扶贫政策制定和相关扶贫研究提供参考。结果表明：1）研究区农户的社会资本和人力资本较高，而自然资本和物质资本偏少，生活水平较低；2）农户的自然灾害风险指标值和经济活动风险指标值相比其他风险指标值较高；3）适应能力普遍较低，且很多应对风险的适应性举措并没有发挥出实际效果；4）农户脆弱性与收入水平、受教育水平负相关，中青年户主型农户的脆弱性最低，老年户主型农户脆弱性最高，资本搭配合理型农户遭受风险的影响小、适应能力强、脆弱程度低。总之，研究区一半的农户遭受着高风险的冲击，生计资本严重缺乏，适应能力低下，脆弱程度很高。因此，贫困地区特别是自然条件恶劣的西北部贫困区，未来扶贫政策的制定应该加强对脆弱群体的识别，把脆弱群体作为前瞻性反贫和减贫的重点研究对象。
Abstract:Traditional researches have focused on the definition, measurement, root causes and reduction strategies of poverty. With the application of concepts such as "ability" and "risk" in the field of poverty research, vulnerability has become a hotspot of poverty research because of its forward-looking perspective. In the face of unfavorable external shocks, poor people generally have high vulnerability. The vulnerability of poverty research can predict the future of poverty, improve the efficiency of poverty reduction and take into account the risk of future shocks and ability to cope with risk. The vulnerability research based on livelihood capital can effectively be used to identify vulnerable groups and guide the formulation and adjustment of rural poverty alleviation policies. Studies of vulnerability to poverty are mainly aimed at the meaning and the measurement of poverty. Domestic literatures combined with actual situation have mostly drawn lessons on foreign to empirical tests with relevant survey data. Taking Pingshang Village in Minxian County as the research area, this paper constructed an evaluation index of vulnerability of poor households from three aspects-risk, livelihood capital and adaptability. We used household index data to analyze the key factors that affect the vulnerability of poor farmers based on the comprehensive index method and according to the divisions of sustainable livelihood framework of livelihood capital. The aim of the study was to provide references for effectively distinguishing vulnerable groups of poor farmers, and establishing and adjusting the policy of rural poverty alleviation. The results showed that:1) social and human capitals of Pingshang Village farmers were high and natural and material capitals low. 2) The farmers' natural disaster and economic activity risk indexes were high. 3) Adaptability was generally low and many adaptive measures to deal with the risk had no practical effect. 4) The vulnerability of farmers was negatively correlated with income and education levels. The vulnerability of young and middle-aged households was lowest, and households headed by the elderly were the most vulnerable. Risk and adaptability were closely related with capital status of farmers. If capital was reasonable, impact of risk was generally small, adaptability strong and fragility low. Half of rural households in the study area suffered high-risk shocks, severe lack of livelihood capital, low adaptive capacity and high levels of vulnerability. Based on the conclusions and actual situations in the study area, suggestions were put forward to reduce vulnerability of poor farmers. This included developing characteristic industries, changing traditional modes, expanding labor markets, improving network systems and establishing mutual help platforms. In order to identify vulnerability of disadvantaged groups at micro-scale, poverty alleviation policies needed to strengthen identification of vulnerable groups. The establishment of poverty vulnerability assessment indicators still needed further inspection and adjustment. Risk management, poverty forecasting and anti-poverty were key research priorities.
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