袁乃明

中山大学大气科学学院 副教授



电子邮件
yuannm@mail.sysu.edu.cn



袁乃明，副教授，博士生导师
主要从事气候变化、气候预测、非线性大气动力学、以及复杂气候网络方面的研究。近年来已在Nature Climate Change, Journal of Climate, Geophysical Research Letters等期刊发表学术论文50余篇，其中40余篇收录在SCI期刊，第一或通讯作者SCI论文近30篇。2020年荣获谢义炳青年气象科技奖。2016年荣获世界气象组织颁发的Mariolopoulos教授信托基金奖。
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联系方式
通讯地址：广东省珠海市香洲区海琴2号A340
电子邮箱：yuannm@mail.sysu.edu.cn
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招生&招聘
现招收博士研究生1名，硕士研究生1名，欢迎对气候变化、气候预测、尤其是气象大数据/复杂气候网络等领域感兴趣的同学联系报考。
课题组常年招聘博士后，提供优厚待遇。
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教育和工作经历
2020.09 -- 至今? ? ? ? ?中山大学大气科学学院，副教授，博士生导师
2016.07 -- 2020.08? ?中国科学院大气物理研究所，副研究员/****
2014.07 -- 2016.07? ?德国吉森大学地理系，博士后
2013.07 -- 2016.06? ?中国气象科学研究院，助理研究员
2008.09 -- 2013.07? ?北京大学大气与海洋科学系，博士研究生
2012.04 -- 2012.07? ?德国吉森大学理论物理系，联培博士生
2010.11 -- 2011.11? ? 德国吉森大学理论物理系，联培博士生
2004.09?-- 2008.07? ?北京师范大学物理学系，本科生
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学术兼职
2019年起担任欧洲地球科学联盟(EGU)年会非线性分会场联合召集人
2020年起担任《Atmosphere》杂志专刊客座编辑
担任Nature Climate Change,?Geophysical Research Letters, Journal of Climate, Journal of Geophysical Research,?Earth System Dynamics,?International Journal of Climatology,?Theoretical and applied Climatology等多个期刊审稿人
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获奖情况
2020年11月? ?谢义炳青年气象科技奖
2016年09月? ?世界气象组织（WMO）Mariolopoulos教授信托基金奖
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主要国际合作
德国吉森大学Prof. Juerg Luterbacher课题组，合作领域：古气候分析、气候变化影响；
德国波茨坦气候影响研究所（PIK）Prof. Juergen Kurths课题组，合作领域：复杂气候网络、气象大数据及预测方法；
英国爱丁堡大学Prof.?Gabriele Hegerl课题组，合作领域：气候变化、未来预估；
德国吉森大学Prof. Armin Bunde课题组，合作领域：气候预测、气候系统持续性特征分析及趋势诊断；
德国汉堡大学Dr. Christian Franzke课题组，合作领域：非线性大气动力学、随机动力学；
俄罗斯圣彼得堡电工大学Prof.?Mikhail Bogachev课题组，合作领域：复杂气候网络理论。
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承担项目
1.中山大学****人才引进经费，2021-2023，60万元，在研，主持；
2.国家自然科学基金面上项目，基于气候系统中多因子相互作用的气候预测新方法研究（**），2017.01-2020.12，68万元，在研，主持；
3.国家自然科学基金青年项目，气候变率中长期记忆性信号的提取及其在中国气候预测中的应用（**），2015.01-2017.12，25万元，已结题，主持；
4.中国科学院****C类，2016.07-2020.08，220万元，主持；
5. 科学技术部国家重点研发计划，年代际气候变化和重大事件的可预报性及预估方法（第四课题，2016YFA**），2016.07至2021.06，85万元，在研，专题负责人;
6.横向课题，中国极端降水演化规律的复杂网络研究，2020.10-2021.12，5万元，在研，主持；
7.横向课题，不同算法年循环位相检测归因结果不确定性测试，2020.10-2021.06，5.6万元，在研，主持；
8.横向课题，BCC新一代气候系统模式对ENSO等主要气候现象预测技巧的测试试验，2019.08-2021.01，13万元，在研，主持；
9.横向课题，中国极端气象事件的时间分布特征、数值模拟及预警模型建立，2018.07-2020.06，15.4万元，已结题，主持。
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发表论文（*为通讯作者）
2020
Naiming Yuan*, and Zhenghui Lu, Warming reduces predictability, Nature Climate Change, 10, 13-14 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0669-4.
Zhenghui Lu, Naiming Yuan*, Lin Chen, and Zhiqiang Gong, On the impacts of El Nino events: A new monitoring approach using complex network analysis, Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL086533, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086533.
Da Nian, Naiming Yuan*, Kairan Ying, Ge Liu, Zuntao Fu, Yanjun Qi, and Christian L. E. Franzke, Identifying the sources of seasonal predictability based on climate memory analysis and variance decomposition, Climate Dynamics,?55, 3239-3252?(2020).
Haoxin Zhang, Naiming Yuan*, Zhuguo Ma, and Yu Huang, Understanding the soil temperature variability at different depths: effects of surface air temperature, snow cover, and the soil memory, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, in press, (2020). https://doi.org /10.1007/s00376-020-0074-y.
Min Qiu, Naiming Yuan*, Shujie Yuan, Understanding long-term memory in global mean temperature: An attribution study based on model simulations, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, in press, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1080/**.2020.**.
Christian L. E. Franzke, Susana Barbosa, Richard Blender, Hege-Beate Fredriksen, Thomas Laepple, Fabrice Lambert, Tine Nilsen, Kristoffer Rypdal, Martin Rypdal, Manuel G. Scotto, Stephane Vannitsem, Nicholas W. Watkins, Lichao Yang, and Naiming Yuan, The structure of climate variability across scales, Reviews of Geophysics, 58, e2019RG000657, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000657.
Yu Huang, Christian L. E. Franzke, Naiming Yuan, and Zuntao Fu, Systematic identification of causal relations in high-dimensional chaotic systems: Application to stratosphere-troposphere coupling, Climate Dynamics, 55，2469-2481, (2020).
Christian L. E. Franzke, and Naiming Yuan, Is climate variability organized, Eos, 101, (2020). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EO145366
2019
Naiming Yuan*, Yan Huang, Jianping Duan, Congwen Zhu, Elena Xoplaki, and Juerg Luterbacher, On climate prediction: how much can we expect from climate memory? Climate Dynamics, 52(1-2), 855-864 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4168-5.
Feilin Xiong, Naiming Yuan*, Xiaoyan Ma, Zhenghui Lu, and Jinhui Gao, On memory and non-memory parts of surface air temperatures over China: can they be simulated by decadal hindcast experiments in CMIP5? Climate Dynamics, 52, 4515-4525 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4395-9.
Fenghua Xie, Naiming Yuan*, Yanjun Qi, and Wenlu Wu, Is long-term climate memory important in temperature/precipitation predictions over China, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 137, 459-466 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2608-0.
Josef Ludescher, Naiming Yuan*, and Armin Bunde, Detecting the statistical significance of the trends in the Antarctic sea ice extent: an indication for a turning point, Climate Dynamics, 53, 237-244 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4579-3.
Wenlu Wu, Naiming Yuan*, Fenghua Xie, and Yanjun Qi, Understanding long-term persistence and multifractal behaviors in river runoff: A detailed study over eastern China, Physica A, 533, 122042 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.122042.
Jianping Duan, Zhuguo Ma, Naiming Yuan, Lun Li, and Liang Chen, Extremes in the magnitude of annual temperature cycle on the Tibetan Plateau over the past three centuries, Climate Dynamics, 52, 3599-3608 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4346-5.
袁乃明，杨庆，刘健，陶丽，冯锦明，马柱国，年代际气候事件的归因及预估研究进展，中国基础科学，21(3)，36-44 (2019).
祝从文，刘伯奇，左志燕，袁乃明，刘舸，东亚夏季风次季节变化研究进展，应用气象学报，30，401-415 (2019). doi: 10.11898/1001-7313.**.
2018
Naiming Yuan*, Gerald Moser, Christoph Mueller, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Joerg Bendix, and Jürg Luterbacher, Extreme climatic events down-regulate the grassland biomass response to elevated carbon dioxide, Scientific Reports, 8, 17758 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-36157-x.
Zhenghui Lu, Zuntao Fu, Lijuan Hua, Naiming Yuan*, and Lin Chen, Evaluation of ENSO simulations in CMIP5 models: A new perspective based on percolation phase transition in complex networks, Scientific Reports, 8, 14912 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-33340-y
Louise C. Andresen, Naiming Yuan, Ruben Seibert, Gerald Moser, Claudia I. Kammann, Juerg Luterbacher, Martin Erbs, Christoph Mueller, Biomass responses in a temperate European grassland through 17 years of elevated CO2, Global Change Biology, 24, 3875-3885 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13705.
2017
Naiming Yuan, Minghu Ding, Josef Ludescher, and Armin Bunde, Increase of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is highly significant only in the Ross Sea, Scientific Reports, 7, 41096 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41096.
Lijuan Hua, Zhenghui Lu, Naiming Yuan*, Lin Chen, Yongqiang Yu, Lu Wang, Percolation Phase Transition of Surface Air Temperature Networks: A new test bed for El Nino/La Nina simulations, Scientific Reports, 7, 8324 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-08767-4.
W. A. Obermeier, L. W. Lehnert, C. I. Kammann, C. Mueller, L. Gruenhage, J. Luterbacher, M. Erbs, G. Moser, R. Seibert, N. Yuan, J. Bendix, Reduced CO2 fertilization effect in temperate C3 grasslands under more extreme weather conditions, Nature Climate Change, 7, 137-141 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3191.
Christian L. E. Franzke, Naiming Yuan, Why is scaling important, PAGES MAGAZINE, 25, 134-135, (2017). https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.25.3.134
Mikhail Bogachev, Naiming Yuan, Armin Bunde, Fractals and Multifractals in Geophysical Time Series, in: Fractals: Concepts and Applications in Geosciences, Chapter 9, Eds B. Ghanbarian, A. G. Hunt, CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group (2017).
2016
Naiming Yuan*, Elena Xoplaki, Congwen Zhu, and Juerg Luterbacher, A novel way to detect correlations on multi-time scales, with temporal evolution and for multi-variables, Scientific Reports, 6, 27707 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/srep27707.
Lin Piao, Zuntao Fu, and Naiming Yuan*, “Intrinsic” correlations and their temporal evolutions between wintertime PNA/EPW and winter drought in the west United States, Scientific Reports, 6, 19958 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/srep19958.
Zhenghui Lu, Naiming Yuan, Zuntao Fu, Percolation phase transition of surface air temperature networks under attacks of El Nino/La Nina, Scientific Reports, 6, 26779 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/srep26779.
Zuntao Fu, Fenghua Xie, Naiming Yuan, Lin Piao, Impact of previous one-step variation in positively long-range correlated processes, Theor. Appl. Climatol, 124, 339-347 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1419-9.
Minghu Ding, Cunde Xiao, Yuande Yang, Yetang Wang, Chuanjin Li, Naiming Yuan, Guitao Shi,Weijun Sun, Jing Ming, Re-assessment of recent (2008-2013) surface mass balance over Dome Argus, Antarctica, Polar Research, 35, 26133 (2016). http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/polar.v35.26133.
J Luterbacher, J P Werner, J E Smerdon, L Fernández-Donado, F J González-Rouco, D Barriopedro, F C Ljungqvist, U Büntgen, E Zorita, S Wagner, J Esper, D McCarroll, A Toreti, D Frank, J H Jungclaus, M Barriendos, C Bertolin, O Bothe, R Brázdil, D Camuffo, P Dobrovolny, M Gagen, E García-Bustamante, Q Ge, J J Gómez-Navarro, J Guiot, Z Hao, G C Heger, K Holmgren, V V Klimenko, J Martín-Chivelet, C Pfister, N Roberts, A Schindler, A Schurer, O Solomina, L von Gunten, E Wahl, H Wanner, O Wetter, E Xoplaki, N Yuan, D Zanchettin, H Zhang and C Zerefos, European summer temperatures since Roman times, Env. Res. Lett., 11, 024001 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001.
2015
Naiming Yuan*, Minghu Ding, Yan Huang, Zuntao Fu, Elena Xoplaki, and Juerg Luterbacher,?On the long-term climate memory in the surface temperature records over Antarctica: A non-negligible factor for trend evaluation, Journal of?Climate, 28, 5922-5934 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00733.1.
Naiming Yuan*, Zuntao Fu, Huan Zhang, Lin Piao, Elena Xoplaki, and Juerg Luterbacher, Detrended partial-cross-correlation analysis: a new method for analyzing correlations in complex system, Scientific Reports, 5, 8143 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/srep08143.
Qinglei Li, Zuntao Fu, and Naiming Yuan*, Beyond Benford's Law: Distinguishing Noise from Chaos, PLOS ONE, 10(6), e** (2015). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.**.
Huan Zhang, Naiming Yuan, Jan Esper, Johannes Werner, Elena Xoplaki, Ulf Buntgen, Kerstin Treydte, and Juerg Luterbacher, Modified climate with long term memory in tree ring proxies, Env. Res. Lett., 10, 084020 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084020.
黄琰, 袁乃明*, 何文平, 长时间大气温度序列的外部变化趋势判别研究, 物理学报, 64, 029201 (2015). https://dx.doi.org/10.7498/aps.64.029201.
丁明虎，卞林根，张林，王召民，逯昌贵，孙维君，袁乃明，傅良，谢泽林，中国南极维多利亚地新站气象特征分析, 极地研究, 27(4), 344-350 (2015). doi: 10.13679/j.jdyj.2015.4.344.
2014
Naiming Yuan, and Zuntao Fu, Century-Scale Intensity Modulation of Large-Scale Variability in Long Historical Temperature Records, Journal of Climate, 27, 1742-1750 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00349.1.
Naiming Yuan*, Zuntao Fu, and Shida Liu, Extracting climate memory using Fractional Integrated Statistical Model: A new perspective on climate prediction, Scientific Reports, 4, 6577 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/srep06577.
Naiming Yuan*, and Zuntao Fu, Different spatial cross-correlation patterns of temperature records over China: A DCCA study on different time scales, Physica A, 400, 71-79 (2014). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2014.01.014.
Qinglei Li, Zuntao Fu, Naiming Yuan, and Fenghua Xie, Effects of non-stationarity on the magnitude and sign scaling in the multi-scale vertical velocity increment, Physica A, 410, 9-16 (2014). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2014.05.004.
Zuntao Fu, Qinglei Li, Naiming Yuan, and Zhenhua Yao, Multi-scale entropy analysis of vertical wind variation series in atmospheric boundary-layer, Commun Nonlinear Sci Numer Simulat, 19, 83-91 (2014). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cnsns.2013.06.026.
2013年及以前
Naiming Yuan, Zuntao Fu, and Shida Liu, Long-term memory in climate variability: A new look based on fractional integral techniques, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118, 12962-12969 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020776.
Naiming Yuan, Zuntao Fu, and Jiangyu Mao, Different multi-fractal behaviors of diurnal temperature range over the north and the south of China, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 112, 673-682 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0762-3.
刘式达，袁乃明，付遵涛，刘式适，气候变化的长期记忆性：理论基础与观测实证, 中国科学：物理学 力学 天文学, 43, 1327-1331 (2013). doi: 10.1360/132013-250
Naiming Yuan, Zuntao Fu, Huiqun Li, and Jiangyu Mao, Effect of extreme value loss on long-term correlated time series, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 109, 133-140 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0566-x.
Lei Jiang, Naiming Yuan, Zuntao Fu, Dongxiao Wang, Xia Zhao, and Xiuhua Zhu, Subarea characteristics of the long-range correlations and the index χ for daily temperature records over China, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 109, 261-270 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0578-6.
Feiyu Lu, Naiming Yuan, Zuntao Fu, and Jiangyu Mao, Universal scaling behaviors of meteorological variables’ volatility and relations with original records, Physica A, 391, 4953-4962 (2012). doi:10.1016/j.physa.2012.05.031.
Naiming Yuan, Zuntao Fu, and Jiangyu Mao, Different scaling behaviors in daily temperature records over China, Physica A, 389, 4087-4095 (2010). doi:10.1016/j.physa.2010.05.026.
Naiming Yuan, Zuntao Fu, Jiangyu Mao, and Shikuo Liu, Novel solutions to the combined dispersion equation, Physics Letters A, 373, 1826-1829 (2009). doi:10.1016/j.physleta.2009.03.041.
Zuntao Fu, Naiming Yuan, Zhe Chen, Jiangyu Mao, and Shikuo Liu, Multi-order exact solutions to the Drinfel’d-Sokolov-Wilson equations, Physics Letters A, 373, 3710-3714 (2009). doi:10.1016/j.physleta.2009.08.014.
Zuntao Fu, Naiming Yuan, Jiangyu Mao, and Shikuo Liu, New Lamé function and its application to nonlinear equations, Physics Letters A, 374, 214-217 (2009). doi:10.1016/j.physleta.2009.10.055.