摘要:行程时间预测，有助于实施高级旅行者信息系统.自20世纪90年代起，已经有多种行程时间预测方法被研发出来.将行程时间预测方法分为模型驱动方法和数据驱动方法两大类.介绍了两种常见的模型驱动方法，即排队论模型和细胞传输模型.数据驱动方法被分类为参数方法和非参数方法：参数方法包括线性回归、自回归集成移动平均和卡尔曼滤波，非参数方法包括神经网络、支持向量回归、最近邻和集成学习方法.对现有行程时间预测方法从源数据、预测范围、准确率、优缺点和适用范围等方面进行了分析总结.针对现有方法的一些缺点，提出了可能的解决方案.给出了一种新颖的数据预处理框架和一个行程时间预测模型，最后指出了未来的研究方向.



Abstract:Travel-time prediction can help implement advanced traveler information systems. In recent years, a variety of travel-time prediction methods have been developed. In this study, travel-time prediction methods are classified into two categories: model-driven and data-driven methods. Two common model-driven approaches are elaborated, namely queuing theory and cell transmission model. The data-driven methods are classified into parametric and non-parametric methods. Parametric methods include linear regression, autoregressive integrated moving average, and Kalman filtering. Non-parametric methods contain neural networks, support vector regression, nearest neighbors, and ensemble learning methods. Existing travel-time prediction methods are analyzed and concluded from source data, prediction range, accuracy, advantages, disadvantages, and application scenarios. Several solutions are proposed for some shortcomings of existing methods. A novel data preprocessing framework and a travel-time prediction model are presented, and future research challenges are highlighted.



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