| 基于Poisson过程的沿海地区飓风灾害评估 |
| 李全旺, 王草, 邹阿鸣, 庞龙, 张龙 |
| 清华大学 土木工程系, 北京 100084 |
| Hurricane damage assessments for coastal areas based on a Poisson model |
| LI Quanwang, WANG Cao, ZOU Aming, PANG Long, ZHANG Long |
| Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China |
摘要:
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| 摘要对沿海地区进行飓风灾害评估时，考虑到已有方法中往往忽略飓风发生的间歇性特性，导致分析结果不准确，该文提出了飓风灾害评估的新方法。将飓风发生的随机过程描述为平稳Poisson过程，并在此基础上给出了飓风灾害评估公式。选取美国Miami-Dade县1900-2010年的飓风数据进行分析，并应用该文提出的方法对该县未来50年内的飓风灾害进行评估。结果表明：Poisson过程能够准确刻画飓风发生的随机过程。如果忽略飓风的间歇性特性，会高估飓风灾害的均值和标准差，但低估其变异性。在50年的评估期内，如果忽略飓风的间歇性特性，则飓风灾害的均值和方差分别被高估41.4%和20.05%。 | |||
| 关键词 ：飓风,灾害评估,Poisson过程,间歇性,概率模型 | |||
| Abstract：Previous hurricane damage assessments for coastal areas have ignored the intermittent nature of hurrucanes. This paper presents an hurricane damage assessment method that accounts for the intermittency. A Poisson model is used in this paper to describe the hurricane stochastic process with explicit formulas for the hurricane damage assessment. Hurricane data for Miami-Dade County, USA, from 1900 to 2010 were used to illustrate the method. The Poisson model provides a reasonable description of the hurricane stochastic characteristics. The mean and the variance of the hurricane damage are overestimated while the coefficient of variance is underestimated if the intermittency is ignored. For example, for a 50-year service period, the mean cumulative hurricane damage is overestimated by 41.4% while the variance is over estimated by 20.05% if the intermittency is ignored. | |||
| Key words：hurricanesdamage assessmentPoisson processintermittencyprobabilistic model | |||
| 收稿日期: 2015-06-14 出版日期: 2016-08-23 | |||
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| 引用本文: |
| 李全旺, 王草, 邹阿鸣, 庞龙, 张龙. 基于Poisson过程的沿海地区飓风灾害评估[J]. 清华大学学报（自然科学版）, 2016, 56(8): 801-805. LI Quanwang, WANG Cao, ZOU Aming, PANG Long, ZHANG Long. Hurricane damage assessments for coastal areas based on a Poisson model. Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology), 2016, 56(8): 801-805. |
| 链接本文: |
| http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2016.25.017或 http://jst.tsinghuajournals.com/CN/Y2016/V56/I8/801 |
图表:
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| 表1 美国Miami- Dade县1900-2010年登陆飓风记录 |
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| 图1 美国Miami- Dade县1900-2010年登陆飓风轨迹 |
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| 图2 飓风时间间隔的累积密度函数 |
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| 图3 飓风风速的累积密度函数 |
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| 图4 拟合式(17)中的参数u1和α1 |
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| 图5 50年内的累积飓风灾害 |
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