中文关键词臭氧(O₃)削峰方案区域协同前体物削减比例数值模拟 英文关键词ozone(O₃)peak ozone controlregional jointreduction ratio of ozone precursorsnumerical simulation

作者	单位	E-mail
严茹莎	上海市环境科学研究院, 国家环境保护城市大气复合污染成因与防治重点实验室, 上海 200233	yanrs@saes.sh.cn
王红丽	上海市环境科学研究院, 国家环境保护城市大气复合污染成因与防治重点实验室, 上海 200233
黄成	上海市环境科学研究院, 国家环境保护城市大气复合污染成因与防治重点实验室, 上海 200233
王倩	上海市环境科学研究院, 国家环境保护城市大气复合污染成因与防治重点实验室, 上海 200233
安静宇	上海市环境科学研究院, 国家环境保护城市大气复合污染成因与防治重点实验室, 上海 200233

中文摘要 随着大气污染治理措施的不断推进，近年来上海市PM_2.5浓度呈现明显的下降趋势，但O₃污染现象依然频发，因此分析O₃污染发生规律，科学制定O₃削峰方案是目前亟需解决的问题.本研究以2017年7月为例，期间长三角17个城市累计O₃污染天数165 d，其中上海最为严重，7月超标率为64.5%，分析前体物浓度和气象要素，主要是由于高温、低湿、小风不利气象条件和较高的前体物排放共同导致，期间上海市NO₂平均浓度为27.1 μg·m^-3，VOCs体积分数为22.5×10^-9.通过WRF-CMAQ情景模拟，仅上海进行前体物削减，对区域性O₃污染控制较为有限，建议多城市共同削减，上海及邻近周边9城市削减VOCs排放30%，上海O₃日最大8 h浓度可下降7.2%，如果扩大到17个城市削减，上海O₃日最大8 h浓度降幅为7.8%.同时建议严格控制前体物削减比例，VOCs ：NO_x削减比例应大于3 ：1，否则会导致部分地区O₃浓度反弹. 英文摘要 With the continuous development of air pollution control measures, the concentration of PM_2.5 in Shanghai has shown a conspicuous downward trend in recent years. However, frequent O₃ pollution events have highlighted the urgent need to explore the occurrence patterns of O₃ pollution and develop scientific strategies for reducing O₃ peaks. This study examines data from July 2017, when the cumulative number of O₃ pollution days in 17 cities in the Yangtze River Delta was 165 days, of which Shanghai was the most serious, with an exceedance rate of 64.5%. During this period, the average concentration of NO₂ in Shanghai was 27.1 μg·m^-3 and volatile organic copunds (VOCs) mixing ratio was 22.5×10^-9. By analyzing ozone precursor concentrations and meteorological factors, we determined that these events mainly resulted from a combination of unfavorable meteorological conditions such as high temperature, low humidity, low wind speed, and high precursor emissions. WRF-CMAQ scenario simulations showed that a reduction in precursor emissions in Shanghai alone would have a limited controlling effect on regional O₃ pollution. Thus, regional joint control is recommended when widespread pollution events occur. Our analysis shows that if VOCs in Shanghai and nine neighboring cities can be reduced by 30%, the maximum 8-h O₃ concentration in Shanghai could be reduced by 7.2%. If the reduction number of these cities rises to 17, the maximum 8-h O₃ concentration reduction rate in Shanghai will increase to 7.8%. It is also recommended that the VOCs:NO_x reduction ratio should be strictly controlled at more than 3:1, or else the O₃ concentration in some areas will increase.

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