中文关键词土壤预警体系预测方法预警级别农用地建设用地 英文关键词soil early warning systemprediction methodsearly warning levelagricultural landdevelopment land

作者	单位	E-mail
李笑诺	中国科学院生态环境研究中心土壤环境科学与技术实验室, 北京 100085	xnli@rcees.ac.cn
丁寿康	中国科学院生态环境研究中心土壤环境科学与技术实验室, 北京 100085 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100049
陈卫平	中国科学院生态环境研究中心土壤环境科学与技术实验室, 北京 100085 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院, 北京 100049	wpchen@rcees.ac.cn
王夏晖	生态环境部环境规划院土壤环境保护中心, 北京 100012
吕斯丹	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所生态系统网络观测与模拟院重点实验室, 北京 100101
刘睿	河南省科学院科技创新战略研究院, 郑州 450002

中文摘要 土壤环境质量预警是实施土壤污染风险分类分级管控措施的重要依据.为快速了解区域土壤环境质量水平，在土壤环境质量恶化前及时采取有效措施遏制土壤污染持续加重的态势，基于环境容量和污染物输入-输出通量理论分别构建了简易、有效和可量化的农用地和建设用地土壤环境质量预警体系，进一步结合土壤环境质量标准、食品安全标准和致癌风险系数提出相应的预警方法和预警机制，并以攸县农用地和北京市五环内建设用地为研究区域，评价土壤环境质量现状，预测不同情景下的土壤环境质量超标风险.结果表明，攸县网岭和桃水镇两地农用地土壤环境质量均隶属五级预警水平，相对其他修复措施，污染秸秆不还田可在较短时间内将土壤中镉含量降低至风险筛选值水平以下.北京市五环内建成区土壤质量状况良好，较长时间内不存在健康风险隐患，无突变情景和乐观情景下Cd、Cu、Pb和Zn的风险超标年限均远高于50 a，隶属一级预警水平. 英文摘要 Early warning of soil environmental quality is an important basis for implementing classified and graded soil risk management measures. To quickly understand the regional soil environmental quality and take effective measures in time to prevent continuous soil pollution before deterioration of soil environmental quality, a simple, effective, and quantifiable early warning system for soil environmental quality of agricultural land and development land was respectively established based on environmental capacity and pollutant input-output flux theory. Furthermore, corresponding method and mechanism for early warning were defined based on soil environmental quality standards, food safety standards, and carcinogenic risk coefficients. The agricultural land in Youxian county and the development area within the fifth-ring in Beijing were chosen to assess the soil environmental quality and predict risks of heavy metals exceeding standards in different scenarios. The results show that the soil environmental quality of the agricultural land in Wangling and Taoshui Town both can be classified to the fifth early warning level. Compared with other remediation measures, the Cd contents of soil can be lowered to risk screening levels in the short term by the scenario of "paddy straw not returned to the field". The soil quality in the development area within the fifth-ring in Beijing belongs to the first early warning level under both the "no intervention" and the "decreased input" scenarios, which means that Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn all need more than 50 years to reach their threshold values to pose potential health risks.

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