中文关键词京津冀NAQPMS模式PM_2.5污染气象沙尘后向轨迹激光雷达预报评估 英文关键词Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regionnested air quality prediction modeling system (NAQPMS)PM_2.5air pollution meteorologysand dustback trajectorylidarforecast assessment

作者	单位	E-mail
朱媛媛	中国环境监测总站, 北京 100012 北京科技大学能源与环境工程学院, 北京 100083	zhuyy@cnemc.cn
高愈霄	中国环境监测总站, 北京 100012 北京科技大学能源与环境工程学院, 北京 100083	gaoyx@cnemc.cn
柴文轩	中国环境监测总站, 北京 100012
王帅	中国环境监测总站, 北京 100012
李亮	中国环境监测总站, 北京 100012
王威	中国环境监测总站, 北京 100012
王光	中国环境监测总站, 北京 100012
刘冰	中国环境监测总站, 北京 100012
王晓彦	中国环境监测总站, 北京 100012
李健军	中国环境监测总站, 北京 100012

中文摘要 选取京津冀及周边区域2018年11月23日至12月4日一次大范围、长时间且PM_2.5叠加两次沙尘传输的复合型重度污染过程开展特征研究，分析了首要污染物PM_2.5和PM₁₀浓度的发展演变，以及污染气象影响因素；结合激光雷达地基和车载走航监测结果，以及HYSPLIT后向轨迹结果，讨论了区域污染传输的情况；并对重污染期间NAQPMS、CMAQ和CAMx这3个空气质量模式的预报效果进行了回顾分析.结果表明，研究时段PM_2.5叠加两次沙尘传输导致区域中南部多数城市达到重至严重污染水平，张家口、北京、石家庄、邯郸和郑州PM₁₀小时峰值分别为1589、864、794、738和766 μg·m^-3，PM_2.5小时峰值浓度分别为239、319、387、321和380 μg·m^-3.地面弱气压场、高湿、逆温等静稳条件和沙尘是重要的污染气象和天气因素.激光雷达地基和车载走航监测数据结合HYSPLIT后向轨迹分析表明重污染期间区域西南和东南方向发生了PM_2.5传输；区域两次沙尘过程主要受西北路径传输影响.此外，NAQPMS、CMAQ和CAMx这3个模式均可较好地预测到京津冀及周边区域的重污染过程，但对个别城市预报略有偏差.该次重污染过程中模式对PM_2.5的预报效果要好于PM₁₀，这与气象模式预报、大气化学反应机制、污染源清单的不确定性，以及重污染应急措施导致的污染源排放的改变有一定关系. 英文摘要 This study discusses the concentration characteristics of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀, as well as pollution meteorology in large-scale and long-term heavy pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas from November 23 to December 4, 2018, where the primary pollutants are comprised of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀. The monitoring results obtained from ground-based and vehicle-mounted lidars, as well as the HYSPLIT-4 backward trajectory combined with meteorological factors analysis are discussed. The accuracy and uncertainty of the air quality forecast model of NAQPMS, CMAQ, and CAMx during heavy air pollution were analyzed retrospectively. The results show that PM_2.5 and sand dust in most cities in the south-central region contribute to severe pollution levels. The hourly peak concentrations of PM₁₀ in Zhangjiakou, Beijing, Shijiazhuang, Handan, and Zhengzhou were 1589, 864, 794, 738, and 766 μg·m^-3, respectively. The respective hourly peak concentrations of PM_2.5 were 239, 319, 387, 321, and 380 μg·m^-3. Ground static pressure field, high humidity, inversion, and other static and stable conditions, as well as sand dust transmitted from the northwest, were important pollution meteorological and weather factors. The monitoring data of ground-based lidar and vehicle-mounted lidar combined with the HYSPLIT-4 backward trajectory analysis showed that the air pollutant transmitted from the Southwest and Southeast during the heavy pollution period was primarily PM_2.5. The air pollutant transmitted from the Northwest during the two sand dust processes. Moreover, the model of NAQPMS, CMAQ, and CAMx performed well in forecasting the heavy pollution process in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its surrounding areas. However there are slight deviations for some individual cities, related to uncertainty in the meteorological model prediction, atmospheric chemical reaction mechanism, and pollution source list. Furthermore, the reduction in pollution source emissions caused by pollution emergency measures was also one of the main reasons for the overestimation.

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