中文关键词VOCs交通微环境通勤模式健康风险Monte-Carlo模拟方法 英文关键词VOCstransport microenvironmentcommuting modeshealth riskMonte-Carlo simulation method

作者	单位	E-mail
佟瑞鹏	中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院, 北京 100083	tongrp@cumtb.edu.cn
张磊	中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院, 北京 100083

中文摘要 针对国内外交通微环境VOCs健康风险研究中通勤模式和有害挥发物较为单一的不足，选取广州市家庭轿车、空调公共汽车、非空调公共汽车、地铁和自行车这5种通勤模式中的苯、甲苯、二甲苯、乙苯、苯乙烯、甲醛、乙醛和丙烯醛等8种VOCs，运用Monte-Carlo模拟方法，进行健康风险评价并对各吸入暴露参数做出敏感性分析.结果表明，空调公交车和家庭轿车的致癌风险较大，分别服从t分布和对数正态分布，为1.65×10^-5±5.74×10^-9和5.01×10^-6±3.56×10^-11，超过10^-6的概率分别为97%和74.85%，自行车和非空调公交车次之，地铁的致癌风险最小，但平均值皆超过10^-6；家庭轿车和空调公共汽车的非致癌风险较大，服从对数正态分布，分别为2.51±2.74和1.20±1.36，其中丙烯醛的贡献皆在80%以上，骑自行车的非致癌风险较小，预期将不会对人体健康产生威胁；各暴露参数中，对健康风险敏感度较大的依次为：每天的暴露时间（ET）、有害挥发物的浓度（CA）、终生暴露年限（ED）、呼吸速率（IR）和每年的暴露天数（EF），而体重（BW）具有负敏感性. 英文摘要 In order to overcome the shortcomings of a single commuting mode, eight VOCs including benzene, toluene, xylene, ethylbenzene, styrene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, and acrolein were studied in five commuting modes in Guangzhou. Applying the Monte Carlo simulation method, we assessed the health risk of these VOCs in five commuting modes, cars, air-conditioned buses, non-air-conditioned buses, subways, and bicycles, and analyzed the sensitivity of each exposure parameter. We used Crystal Ball 11.1 with 10000 iterations of independent runs and 95% confidence interval. The results show that the commuters of air-conditioned buses and cars are subjected to a higher cancer risk, following the t-distribution and lognormal distribution with 1.65×10^-5±5.74×10^-9 and 5.01×10^-6±3.56×10^-11, with the probability of exceeding 10^-6 of 97% and 74.85%, respectively. The cancer risks of bicycles, non-air-conditioned buses, and subways are smaller, but their averages are higher than 10^-6. The commuters of cars and air-conditioned buses were subjected to a larger non-cancer risk, following the lognormal distribution of 2.51±2.74 and 1.20±1.36; the contributions of acrolein are above 80%. The non-cancer risk of bicycles is the smallest and will not be a threat to human health. Sensitivity analysis shows that the sensitivities of ET, CA, ED, IR, and EF are larger, with the values of 55.5%, 32%, 10.5%, 1.1%, 0.2%, respectively, and BW has negative sensitivity.

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