摘要:中华穿山甲（Manis pentadactyla）属于全球极度濒危物种，也是我国一级保护动物。对中华穿山甲的非法捕杀曾导致其种群数量锐减。但是，近年来相关研究报道较少，穿山甲分布状况不明，极大地制约了对该物种的有效保护。搜集了近年来国内中华穿山甲的救护记录和救护新闻，甄别出67个记录分布点，利用最大熵模型软件（MaxEnt）进行因子筛选，结果表明最冷季度降水量、人口密度、年降水量、坡度、坡向、海拔等6个环境变量是与中华穿山甲分布显著相关的影响因子。基于6个主导环境变量构建的MaxEnt模型AUC平均值为0.961±0.014，预测结果达到极好标准。刀切法（Jackknife）表明，其中最冷季度降水量、年降水量、人口密度和海拔是影响中华穿山甲分布的主要因素。中华穿山甲适宜生境（出现概率大于0.498）具有以下特点：最冷季度降水量141.22-439.46 mm，年降水量1471.67-2386.56 mm，人口密度≥390人/km²，海拔<316.98 m。该模型预测中华穿山甲在我国的潜在分布适宜区主要位于我国长江以南地区，总面积约为74.27×10⁴ km²，占国土面积的7.73%，主要集中在江西、广东、湖南和广西省，面积分别占该区域的97.58%，89.65%，76.90%和73.08%；其次是浙江、福建、台湾和安徽省。湖北、江苏、四川、云南、贵州等省份也有中华穿山甲的零星分布。湖北东南部、江苏南部、浙江西南部和福建西北部等与江西接壤的区域也是中华穿山甲的重要潜在分布适宜区。明确中华穿山甲的潜在分布适宜区，可为该物种的种群保护和栖息地管理提供科技支撑。



Abstract:The Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla) has been listed as a critically endangered species on the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, as well as a first-class national protected animal in China. Its population has suffered a sharp decline because of reckless illegal hunting in the past decades. Nevertheless, there has been little relevant research on this species, and the current distribution of the Chinese pangolins is still unknown; this greatly restricts the effective protection of this species. Therefore, we collected rescue records and news about the Chinese pangolins in China in recent years and identified 67 distribution points of the Chinese pangolins. In this study, the maximum entropy model software (MaxEnt) was used to select potentially important environmental variables. Six environmental variables, including the precipitation of the coldest quarter, population density, annual precipitation, altitude, slope, and aspect were significantly correlated with the distribution of the Chinese pangolins. The average values of the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of the MaxEnt models based on these six variables was 0.961±0.014, indicating that the accuracy of the MaxEnt model for predicting the areas of potential distribution of the Chinese pangolins was accurate. Jackknife showed that precipitation of the coldest quarter, annual precipitation, population density, and altitude were the most important factors affecting the distribution of the Chinese pangolins. Among them, precipitation-related factor was the most important environmental variables affecting the suitable habitat areas of the Chinese Pangolins. Population density was another important predictor. The most suitable habitat (probability of presence>0.498) was characterized by precipitation of the coldest quarter of 141.22-439.46 mm, annual precipitation of 1471.67-2386.56 mm, population density of ≥ 390 people/km², and altitudes<316.98 m. Furthermore, the model predicted that the potentially suitable distribution areas of the Chinese pangolin were 74.27×10⁴ km², accounting for 7.73% of the total area of China, mainly at the south of the Yangtze River, particularly in Jiangxi, Guangdong, Hunan, and Guangxi provinces, accounting for 97.58%, 89.65%, 76.90%, and 73.08% of these provinces, respectively; followed by Zhejiang, Fujian, Taiwan, and Anhui provinces. In addition, Hubei, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, and other provinces also have scattered distribution of Chinese pangolins. Neighboring regions of Jiangxi, such as southeastern Hubei, southern Jiangsu, southwestern Zhejiang, and northwestern Fujian, are also important potentially suitable areas for the distribution of Chinese pangolins. Understanding the potentially suitable distribution areas of the Chinese pangolin can provide useful information and instructive reference to the Chinese pangolin population conservation and habitat management.





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