摘要:研究区域植被覆盖度变化趋势并探寻其驱动因素对于维护生态安全具有重要意义。将内蒙古旗县分为牧业旗县和非牧业旗县，应用线性趋势分析法和地理探测器模型探讨2000-2015年自然和人为因素对植被NDVI变化的影响。结果表明：（1）2000-2015年内蒙古地区植被覆盖度总体上呈增加趋势，但空间上显现出西部减少，东部与南部增加的趋势；非牧业旗县植被NDVI改善面积大于牧业旗县。（2）在整个内蒙古地区中，年降水量和土壤类型是影响植被NDVI的主要驱动因素，解释率在22%以上。在牧业旗县年降水量和土壤类型是主要驱动因素，而在非牧业旗县中粮食产量是最主要的驱动因素。（3）各因子之间的交互影响均高于单因子的影响。在牧业旗县，因子之间的交互作用呈现出非线性增强和双因子增强关系，植被NDVI变化受乡村户数和牲畜数量的交互影响最为突出。非牧业旗县因子之间呈现出非线性增强的交互作用关系，植被NDVI变化受土壤类型和粮食产量的交互影响最为明显。



Abstract:Exploring the regional vegetation cover change and its driving factors are of great importance for sustaining ecological safety. In this study, we divided banners and counties of Inner Mongolia into pastoral counties and non-pastoral counties. The linear trend analysis method and geographic detector modeling were applied to examine the effects of natural and human factors on vegetation NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that the spatial and temporal variation of vegetation coverage decreased in the western of Inner Mongolia, while increased in the eastern and southern of Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2015, with no significant changes in the other regions. The vegetation NDVI value was improved more in the non-pastoral counties than that in the pastoral counties. In the whole Inner Mongolia, annual precipitation and soil types were the main factors driving the change of vegetation NDVI, explaining the variation of more than 22%. The interaction among all factors was higher than the individual effect of each factor. Furthermore, in pastoral counties, the interaction among all factors tended to a nonlinear enhancement and double factor enhancement, with the strongest interaction between rural households and livestock numbers on the vegetation NDVI. The interaction among all factors showed a nonlinear enhancement in non-pastoral counties, with the strongest interaction between soil types and grain yield on the vegetation NDVI.





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