摘要:开展酿酒葡萄气候适宜性研究对于优化酿酒葡萄布局、气候资源开发利用具有重要意义。基于欧亚种酿酒葡萄（Vitis vinifera L.）分布数据和影响其分布的气候因子，利用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）和地理信息系统（ArcGIS），研究影响欧亚种酿酒葡萄种植分布的主导气候因子及其气候适宜性。结果表明：MaxEnt模型能够很好地模拟我国欧亚种酿酒葡萄的潜在分布，模拟效果达到"非常好"（AUC平均值0.936）的水平。基于气候因子对欧亚种酿酒葡萄地理分布影响的贡献确定了主导气候因子，即无霜期、干燥度、极端最低气温、年降水量、生长季日照时数、≥10℃活动积温。当前，我国欧亚种酿酒葡萄种植分布的气候高适宜区、适宜区、次适宜区分别占次适宜及以上区域总面积的2.9%、20.4%和76.7%。欧亚种酿酒葡萄气候高适宜区主要分布在宁夏、山西、陕西、内蒙古、山东、河北、新疆、甘肃等省，只考虑气候因子，陕西、山西、内蒙古具有较大的发展空间。



Abstract:Study of the climatic suitability for the wine grapes has great significance for optimizing the distribution of wine grapes and the utilization of climate resources. Based on the geographical distribution data of wine grapes (Vitis vinifera L.) and the climatic factors affecting the distribution of wine grapes, the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt) and Geographic Information Systems (ArcGIS) were used to identify the dominant climatic factors affecting the planting distribution and study the climatic suitability of wine grapes. The results indicated that the MaxEnt model could well simulate the potential distribution of wine grapes in China, and the assessment result was excellent with the average AUC 0.936. The contribution of climate factors to the geographical distribution of the wine grape was evaluated by Jackknife tests in the modeling analysis. The frost-free period, aridity index, annual extreme minimum temperature, annual precipitation, sunshine duration of growing season, and ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature were the main dominant climatic factors affecting the spatial distribution for wine grapes. At present, the areas of optimum, suitable and sub-suitable subregions for growing wine grapes (Vitis vinifera L.) accounted for 2.9%, 20.4% and 76.7%, respectively, to the total climate suitable planting area. The optimum area was mainly distributed in Ningxia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Hebei, Xinjiang, and Gansu, considering only climatic factors, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia had a large development room.





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