摘要:随着经济快速发展和城镇化进程不断加快，土地开发强度日益增大，导致生态环境不断恶化，分析城乡建设用地承载能力及空间格局匹配情况，对解决土地利用不合理、生态破坏等问题具有重要意义。以江西省南昌市为例，首先从生态安全、自然条件、社会经济等方面构建指标体系，采用层次分析法和限制系数评价模型，进行城乡建设用地开发适宜性评价，然后测算城乡建设用地承载力、可承载城乡建设用地丰度；最后与现状城乡建设用地进行空间匹配度分析，并探讨可承载临界值、丰度与空间匹配度的相关性。结果表明：南昌市城乡建设用地最适宜区、较适宜区、较不适宜区和不适宜区面积分别为1466.19、1346.01、353.69 km²和3770.70 km²；研究区城乡建设用地可承载临界值和可承载潜力分别为41.25%和24.05%，各县（区）值差异较大，各县（区）可承载临界值和可承载潜力范围分别为19.43%-98.71%和5.65%-49.83%，可承载城乡建设用地丰度情况良好，各县（区）值介于0.19-1.50之间；研究区各县（区）空间匹配度范围为67.41%-99.25%；相关分析显示，空间匹配度与城乡建设用地可承载临界值和可承载城乡建设用地丰度均呈正相关关系。研究可为南昌市城乡建设用地合理开发利用和国土空间优化提供依据。



Abstract:With the rapid development of economy and the accelerating process of urbanization, the intensity of land development is increasing, which leads to the deterioration of ecological environment. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze the carrying capacity of urban-rural construction land and the spatial pattern matching for solving the problems of unreasonable land use and ecological damage. Taking Nanchang City, Jiangxi Province as an example, this paper first building an index system from the aspects of ecological security, natural conditions, social economy and so on, using AHP and limit coefficient evaluation model to evaluate the suitability of urban-rural construction land development,then calculates the bearing capacity of urban-rural construction land and the abundance of urban-rural construction land.Finally it analyzes the spatial matching degree with the current urban-rural construction land, and discusses the correlation between the bearing critical value, the abundance and the spatial matching degree. The evaluation results show that the most suitable area, more suitable area, less suitable area and unsuitable area of urban-rural construction land development suitability in Nanchang City are 1466.19, 1346.01, 353.69 km² and 3770.70 km², respectively. The carrying capacity critical value and carrying capacity of urban-rural construction land in the study area are 41.25% and 24.05%, respectively, and the values of each county (district) is quite different,the carrying capacity critical value and carrying potential range of each county (district) are 19.43%-98.71% and 5.65%-49.83%, respectively.The abundance of urban-rural construction land is good,and the value of each county (district) is between 0.19-1.50. The range of spatial matching degree of each county (District) in Nanchang City is 67.41%-99.25%.The correlation analysis shows that the spatial matching degree is positively correlated with the critical value of urban-rural construction land and the abundance of urban-rural construction land. This study can provide the basis for the rational development and utilization of urban-rural construction land and the optimization of land space in Nanchang City.





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