摘要:黄土高原是退耕还林还草工程背景下地表格局及植被变化最为显著的地区之一，评估黄土高原的植被恢复成效及影响因素是促进区域植被恢复政策优化的关键环节。基于不同时间尺度植被覆盖度和植被净初级生产力趋势变化，提出了量化区域植被恢复成效的新方法，采用结构方程模型研究社会经济因素对植被恢复成效的影响及其随时间产生的变化，通过地理加权回归探索气候和关键社会经济因子对植被恢复成效的空间非平稳影响。研究结果刻画了2000-2015年黄土高原植被恢复的持续改善过程：截止2015年，黄土高原88.20%的面积植被恢复成效明显，高值区集中于陕北地区及山西省各县区。农村劳动力的下降使得植被恢复所受人口压力减缓，负影响由-0.95变为-0.86；农业生产力的提升是黄土高原植被恢复成效改善的重要社会经济因素。气候及社会经济因子对黄土高原植被恢复成效的影响呈现显著的空间差异：多年平均降水对黄土高原东部29.30%的地区影响最大，且为促进作用，平均温度是北部和西部风沙草地植被恢复成效的主导影响因子（占总面积20.93%）；黄土高原中西部47.02%的地区则受社会经济因素的影响更加明显。当前研究揭示了黄土高原的植被恢复效果及关键影响因子，可为区域植被恢复政策的优化提供科学支撑。



Abstract:The Loess Plateau in China has experienced a significant change of landscapes and vegetation since the implementation of Grain to Green Programme. Based on a comparison of the changing trends of the fractional vegetation cover (FVC) and the net primary production (NPP) at three temporal scales (i.e. 2000-2005 a, 2000-2010 a, and 2000-2015 a), this paper formulated a composite index to assess the effectiveness of vegetation restoration. Effectiveness together with its relationship with socio-economic factors was explored via the structural equation modeling (SEM) for three time periods. The spatial non-stationary factors for vegetation restoration, including climatic and key socioeconomic indicators based on SEM were then explored using the geographically weighted regression (GWR). The effectiveness of vegetation restoration demonstrated the remarkable improvement of vegetation restoration, covering 88.20% of the Loess Plateau. The high value area was concentrated in the northern Shaanxi and Shanxi province. The relationships between effectiveness and socio-economic factors indicated that the strongly negative impact of population pressure was alleviated (the path coefficients was -0.95 and -0.86, respectively) since the rural employment decreased. Moreover, improvements in the rural economy may provide the possibility of improving the restoration effectiveness, which should particularly focus on improvements in agricultural practices. The climate and socio-economic factors that affected the effectiveness of vegetation restoration had significantly spatial differences on the Loess Plateau. The effectiveness of vegetation restoration on eastern the Loess Plateau, covering 29.30% of the area was dominated by the mean annual precipitation, with the positive influence. The mean annual temperature was the leading factor of the effectiveness of vegetation restoration on the northern and western sandstorms of the Loess Plateau, accounting for 20.93% of its total area. Whereas, the central and western parts of the Loess Plateau, covering 47.02% of its total area were more affected by socio-economic factors. Our study revealed the continuous improvement of vegetation restoration and its key climatic and socioeconomic factors, which supports the promoting strategy for the optimization of vegetation restoration policies.





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