摘要:干旱区生态资本独特但生态承载有限，其生态足迹供求关系及均衡机理倍受关注。以干旱区典型内陆河流域-玛纳斯河流域为靶区，根据干旱区土地利用/覆盖类型特征及变化趋势，基于绿洲生产消耗所产生的生态系统服务流动规律建立三维生态足迹评价模型，并利用干旱区本土参数对流域2000-2018年的生态足迹时空分异进行分析。结果表明：（1）受自然承载有限和社会经济发展交互影响，玛纳斯河流域生态赤字不断扩大。时间上，18年间流域生态赤字增长了4.36倍，人均生态赤字增长了3.12倍，其中能源用地和耕地占比高、增速快，对生态赤字的贡献远远超过其他类型；空间上，石河子市对流域生态足迹的贡献率明显大于沙湾县和玛纳斯县；（2）同期，玛纳斯河流域生态足迹广度增加了0.59倍，足迹深度增加了0.44，广深比达到3343876：1.63，流量资本占用不断增加，存量资本日趋消损，生态压力不断增大；（3）流域资源利用效率显著提高，18年内增加了4.73倍，增长速度为5778.3万元hm^-2 a^-1；（4）流域虽面临较大的生态挑战和人口压力，但在全疆范围来看并不突出。本土参数与省域参数和国家参数相比可较好反映流域自然资本利用现状，最后提出干旱区生态承载力的优化展望和流域可持续发展建议。



Abstract:The ecological capital is unique but the ecological carrying capacity is limited in Arid Region. The supply-demand relationship and the equilibrium mechanism of the ecological footprint have received much attention. The Manas River Basin, a typical inland river basin in the arid area, was taken as the target area. According to the characteristics and change trend of land use/cover type in the arid area, we established a three-dimensional ecological footprint evaluation model based on the ecosystem service flow law generated by the oasis production consumption. We analyzed the spatial and temporal differences of the ecological footprint of the river basin from 2000 to 2018 by using the local parameters of the arid area. The results showed that: (1) due to the interaction of limited natural carrying capacity and social and economic development, the ecological deficit of the Manas River Basin is expanding. On the time scale, the basin ecological deficit has increased by 4.36 times in the past 18 years, and the per capita ecological deficit has increased by 3.12 times, among which the proportion of energy land and cultivated land was high and the growth rate was fast, and its contribution to the ecological deficit was far more than other types. On the spatial scale, the contribution rate of Shihezi city to the basin ecological footprint was significantly higher than that of Shawan County and Manas County. (2) In the same period, the ecological footprint span of the Manas River Basin increased by 0.59 times, the depth of the footprint increased by 0.44, and the ratio of span to depth reached 3343876:1.63, indicating that the occupation of the flow capital was increasing, the stock capital is declining, and the ecological pressure was increasing. (3) The utilization efficiency of basin resources has been significantly improved, increased by 4.73 times in 18 years, and the growth rate was 5778.3 yuan/hm²/year. (4) Although the basin faced great ecological challenges and population pressure, it was not prominent in the whole Xinjiang. Compared with the provincial and national parameters, the local parameters can better reflect the current status of natural capital use in the river basin. Finally, the optimization prospects of ecological capacity in the arid area and suggestions for sustainable development of the river basin are proposed.





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