摘要:建立基于温度和光周期驱动的旱柳花期物候模型，旨在寻找影响旱柳花期时空变化的主要气象因子，揭示调控植物开花时间的生态机制，还可为改善柳絮造成的环境污染和花粉过敏等人类健康问题提供参考信息和依据。利用中国气象局农业气象观测网提供的中国温带地区1982-2011年49个站点的旱柳开花始期、盛期和末期观测资料及平行的逐日气象数据，分别对6种模型（简单积温模型、温度三基点模型、八时段温度模型、简单积温-日长模型、温度三基点-日长模型和八时段温度-日长模型）进行了参数率定和假设检验，根据外部检验结果，从中选出针对旱柳3个花期的最优物候模型，进而利用连续地理气象数据和最优物候模型重建了1982-2011年旱柳开花始期、盛期、末期和花期长度的时空变化特征。结果表明：光温耦合的物候模型对旱柳花期的模拟效果和外推效果优于仅基于温度的模型。旱柳开花始期和盛期最优模型均为八时段温度-日长模型，末期为温度三基点-日长模型，说明光周期和温度可能是影响旱柳花期开始、繁盛和结束时间的主要气象因子。同时，优选出的物候模型能够较准确地对不同年份和不同地区的旱柳花期进行模拟及预测。重建的1982-2011年旱柳平均开花始期、盛期和末期日期分别为4月24日、4月28日和5月3日，平均花期长度为9 d，始期、盛期和末期出现日期呈现出从海拔低到高、从南向北、从西向东逐渐推迟的空间格局。1982-2011年旱柳开花始期、盛期和末期在大部分地区呈提前趋势，呈显著提前趋势的面积分别占总面积的49.78%、50.01%和53.40%，花期长度变化差异不显著。



Abstract:Developing Salix matsudana flowering phenological model based on temperature and photoperiod is crucial for finding the main meteorological factors which affected the spatio-temporal changes of the Salix matsudana flowering dates, revealing the ecological mechanism of regulating plant flowering dates, and providing reference information for improving human health problems such as environmental pollution and pollen allergy caused by willow catkins. In this study, we used Salix matsudana phenology data of beginning of flowering (BF), full flowering (FF) and end of flowering (EF) at 49 phenological observation stations acquired from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) phenological network during 1982-2011 to establish and compare six flowering models (simple accumulated temperature model, three-base temperature model, eight-stage temperature model, simple accumulated temperature×photoperiod model, three-base temperature×photoperiod model, eight-stage temperature×photoperiod model). According to external validation results, we selected the optimal phenological model for BF, FF and EF, respectively. Subsequently, we obtained spatial patterns of multi-year and yearly Salix matsudana flowering dates over continuous geographic coverage during 1982-2011 by using the optimal phenological model. The results showed that Salix matsudana flowering was better fitted to the model which considered both the effect of temperature and photoperiod. The eight-stage temperature×photoperiod model outperformed the other two models for BF and FF. For EF, the three-base temperature×photoperiod model performed better than the other five models. It indicated that photoperiod and temperature were the main meteorological factors influencing the Salix matsudana flowering. The effect of simulation and prediction was more accurately for different stations and years by using the optimal flowering phenological model. The multi-year simulated mean dates of BF, FF and EF were April 24, April 28, and May 3, respectively. And the multi-year simulated mean Salix matsudana flowering dates showed a delayed spatial progression from low altitude to high altitude, from south to north, and from west to east. The simulated linear trends in BF, FF and EF dates in most areas from 1982 to 2011 indicated an advancement and the areas with significant advancement accounted for 49.78%, 50.01% and 53.40% of the total area, respectively. In addition, the multi-year simulated mean LF was 9 days, and no significant trends were found in most areas for FL.





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